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Exchange rates and wages

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Author Info
Linda Goldberg
Joseph Tracy

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Abstract

Understanding the effects of exchange rate fluctuations across the population is important for increasingly globalized economies. Previous studies using industry aggregate data have found that industry wages are significantly more responsive than industry employment to exchange rate changes. We offer an explanation for this paradoxical finding. Using Current Population Survey data for 1976 through 1998, we document that the main mechanism for exchange rate effects on wages occurs through job turnover and the strong consequences this has for the wages of workers undergoing such job transitions. By contrast, workers who remain with the same employer experience little, if any, wage impacts from exchange rate shocks. In addition, we find that the least educated workers--who also have the most frequent job changes--shoulder the largest adjustments to exchange rates.

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Paper provided by Federal Reserve Bank of New York in its series Staff Reports with number 116.

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Date of creation: 2001
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Handle: RePEc:fip:fednsr:116

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Keywords: Wages ; Foreign exchange rates;

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This paper has been announced in the following NEP Reports: References listed on IDEAS
Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.:
  1. Ian Domowitz & R. Glenn Hubbard & Bruce C. Petersen, 1986. "Business Cycles and the Relationship Between Concentration and Price-Cost Margins," RAND Journal of Economics, The RAND Corporation, vol. 17(1), pages 1-17, Spring. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  2. José Manuel Campa & Linda S. Goldberg, 1999. "Employment versus Wage Adjustment and the U.S. Dollar," Working Papers 99-07, New York University, Leonard N. Stern School of Business, Department of Economics. [Downloadable!]
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  3. Davis, Steven J. & Haltiwanger, John, 2001. "Sectoral job creation and destruction responses to oil price changes," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 48(3), pages 465-512, December. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  4. Linda Goldberg & Joseph Tracy & Stephanie Aaronson, 1999. "Exchange Rates and Employment Instability: Evidence from Matched CPS Data," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 89(2), pages 204-210, May. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  5. Bartel, Ann P, 1979. "The Migration Decision: What Role Does Job Mobility Play?," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 69(5), pages 775-86, December. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  6. Pierre-Olivier Gourinchas, 1998. "Exchange Rates and Jobs: What Do We Learn from Job Flows?," NBER Working Papers 6864, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  7. Jose Campa & Linda S. Goldberg, 1997. "The Evolving External Orientation of Manufacturing Industries: Evidence from Four Countries," NBER Working Papers 5919, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  8. Linda Goldberg & Joseph Tracy, 2000. "Exchange Rates and Local Labor Markets," NBER Chapters, in: The Impact of International Trade on Wages, pages 269-307 National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc. [Downloadable!]
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  9. Davis, Steven J. & Haltiwanger, John, 1999. "Gross job flows," Handbook of Labor Economics, in: O. Ashenfelter & D. Card (ed.), Handbook of Labor Economics, edition 1, volume 3, chapter 41, pages 2711-2805 Elsevier. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  10. Revenga, Ana L, 1992. "Exporting Jobs? The Impact of Import Competition on Employment and Wages in U.S. Manufacturing," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, MIT Press, vol. 107(1), pages 255-84, February. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  11. Solon, Gary & Barsky, Robert & Parker, Jonathan A, 1994. "Measuring the Cyclicality of Real Wages: How Important Is Composition Bias?," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, MIT Press, vol. 109(1), pages 1-25, February. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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(explanations, Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.)

  1. Bernard Hoekman & Alan L. Winters, 2005. "Trade and Employment: Stylized Facts and Research Findings," Working Papers 7, United Nations, Department of Economics and Social Affairs. [Downloadable!]
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  2. Porto, Guido G., 2004. "Informal export barriers and poverty," Policy Research Working Paper Series 3354, The World Bank. [Downloadable!]
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  3. Kramarz, Francis, 2003. "Wages and International Trade," CEPR Discussion Papers 3936, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  4. Goldberg, Linda S. & Campa, Jose M., 2006. "Distribution margins, imported inputs, and the insensitivity of the CPI to exchange rates," IESE Research Papers D/625, IESE Business School. [Downloadable!]
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  5. Porto, Guido G., 2003. "Trade reforms, market access, and poverty in Argentina," Policy Research Working Paper Series 3135, The World Bank. [Downloadable!]
  6. Linda Goldberg & Joseph Tracy, 2001. "Gender Differences in the Labor-Market Effects of the Dollar," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 91(2), pages 400-405, May. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  7. Cedric Tille, 2002. "On the distributional effects of exchange rate fluctuations," Staff Reports 146, Federal Reserve Bank of New York. [Downloadable!]
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  8. Guido G. Porto, 2003. "Using survey data to assess the distributional effects of trade policy," Policy Research Working Paper Series 3137, The World Bank. [Downloadable!]
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  9. Porto, Guido, 2008. "Agro-manufactured export prices, wages and unemployment," Policy Research Working Paper Series 4489, The World Bank. [Downloadable!]
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  10. Egger, Peter & Pfaffermayr, Michael & Weber, Andrea, 2003. "Sectoral Adjustment of Employment: The Impact of Outsourcing and Trade at the Micro Level," Economics Series 145, Institute for Advanced Studies. [Downloadable!]
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  11. Danny Leung & Terence Yuen, 2007. "Labour Market Adjustments to Exchange Rate Fluctuations: Evidence from Canadian Manufacturing Industries," Open Economies Review, Springer, vol. 18(2), pages 177-189, April. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  12. Runjuan Liu & Daniel Trefler, 2008. "Much Ado About Nothing: American Jobs and the Rise of Service Outsourcing to China and India," NBER Working Papers 14061, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  13. Michael W. Klein & Scott Schuh & Robert K. Triest, 2002. "Job creation, job destruction, and international competition: a literature review," Working Papers 02-7, Federal Reserve Bank of Boston. [Downloadable!]
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