Advanced Search
MyIDEAS: Login

The Dutch Disease in Kazakhstan: An Empirical Investigation

Contents:

Author Info

  • Leonard, Carol S.

    ()

  • Égert, Balázs

    ()
    (Oesterreichische Nationalbank)

Abstract

In this paper we investigate whether or not the Dutch disease is at work in, or poses a threat to, the Kazakh economy. For this purpose, we fi rst summarize the mechanism through which fl uctuations in the price of oil could possibly damage the non-oil manufacturing industry and thus the long-term growth perspectives of an economy that relies heavily on oil production. Subsequently, we seek to analyze the specifi c chains of this transmission mechanism in Kazakhstan. The analysis of annual data for the period from 1998 to 2005 suggests that non-oil manufacturing has so far been spared the perverse effects of oil price increases. However, the real exchange rate of the open sector has appreciated during the last couple of years chiefl y due to the appreciation of the nominal exchange rate. In a second step, we analyze to what extent this appreciation is linked to oil price developments and oil revenues. Our econometric estimations based on the monetary model of the exchange rate and a variety of real exchange rate models provide us with some indication that the rise in the price of oil and in oil revenues might be linked to an appreciation of the U.S. dollar exchange rate of the oil and non-oil sectors. However, the appreciation is mainly limited to the oil sector for the real effective exchange rate and seems to be statistically insignificant for the non-oil manufacturing sector.

Download Info

If you experience problems downloading a file, check if you have the proper application to view it first. In case of further problems read the IDEAS help page. Note that these files are not on the IDEAS site. Please be patient as the files may be large.
File URL: http://www.oenb.at/dms/oenb/Publikationen/Volkswirtschaft/Focus-on-European-Economic-Integration/2006/Focus-on-European-Economic-Integration-Q2-06/chapters/feei_2006_2_egert_leonard_tcm16-49883.pdf
Download Restriction: no

Bibliographic Info

Article provided by Oesterreichische Nationalbank (Austrian Central Bank) in its journal Focus on European Economic Integration.

Volume (Year): (2006)
Issue (Month): 2 ()
Pages:

as in new window
Handle: RePEc:onb:oenbfi:y:2006:i:2:b:3

Contact details of provider:
Postal: P.O. Box 61, A-1011 Vienna, Austria
Phone: +43/1/404 20 7405
Fax: +43/1/404 20 7499
Email:
Web page: http://www.oenb.at
More information through EDIRC

Order Information:
Postal: Oesterreichische Nationalbank, Documentation Management and Communications Services, Otto-Wagner Platz 3, A-1090 Vienna, Austria
Email:

Related research

Keywords:

References

References listed on IDEAS
Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.:
as in new window
  1. Antonio Spilimbergo, 2002. "Copper and the Chilean Economy, 1960-98," Journal of Economic Policy Reform, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 5(2), pages 115-126.
  2. Kornélia Krajnyák & Jeromin Zettelmeyer, 1997. "Competitiveness in Transition Economies - What Scope for Real Appreciation?," IMF Working Papers 97/149, International Monetary Fund.
  3. Jeffrey D. Sachs & Andrew M. Warner, 1995. "Natural Resource Abundance and Economic Growth," NBER Working Papers 5398, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  4. Susana Garcia Cervero & J. Humberto Lopez & Enrique Alberola Ila & Angel J. Ubide, 1999. "Global Equilibrium Exchange Rates - Euro, Dollar, "Ins," "Outs," and Other Major Currencies in a Panel Cointegration Framework," IMF Working Papers 99/175, International Monetary Fund.
  5. Lionel Halpern & Charles Wyplosz, 1996. "Equilibrium Exchange Rates in Transition Economies," IMF Working Papers 96/125, International Monetary Fund.
  6. Halpern, László & MacDonald, Ronald & Égert, Balázs, 2005. "Equilibrium Exchange Rates in T ransition Economies: T aking Stock of the Issues," Working Papers 106, Oesterreichische Nationalbank (Austrian Central Bank).
  7. Meese, Richard A. & Rogoff, Kenneth, 1983. "Empirical exchange rate models of the seventies : Do they fit out of sample?," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 14(1-2), pages 3-24, February.
  8. Maeso-Fernandez, Francisco & Osbat, Chiara & Schnatz, Bernd, 2005. "Pitfalls in estimating equilibrium exchange rates for transition economies," Economic Systems, Elsevier, vol. 29(2), pages 130-143, June.
  9. Hamid Faruqee, 1995. "Long-Run Determinants of the Real Exchange Rate: A Stock-Flow Perspective," IMF Staff Papers, Palgrave Macmillan, vol. 42(1), pages 80-107, March.
  10. James H. Stock & Mark W. Watson, 1991. "A simple estimator of cointegrating vectors in higher order integrated systems," Working Paper Series, Macroeconomic Issues 91-3, Federal Reserve Bank of Chicago.
  11. Tobias Kronenberg, 2004. "The curse of natural resources in the transition economies," The Economics of Transition, The European Bank for Reconstruction and Development, vol. 12(3), pages 399-426, 09.
  12. Kuralbayeva, Karlygash & Kutan, Ali M. & Wyzan, Michael L., 2001. "Is Kazakhstan vulnerable to the Dutch disease?," ZEI Working Papers B 29-2001, ZEI - Center for European Integration Studies, University of Bonn.
  13. Balázs Égert & Imed Drine & Kirsten Lommatzsch & Christophe Rault, 2005. "The Balassa-Samuelson Effect in Central and Eastern Europe: Myth or Reality?," Documents de recherche 05-15, Centre d'Études des Politiques Économiques (EPEE), Université d'Evry Val d'Essonne.
  14. Bergstrand, Jeffrey H, 1991. "Structural Determinants of Real Exchange Rates and National Price Levels: Some Empirical Evidence," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 81(1), pages 325-34, March.
  15. Corden, W M, 1984. "Booming Sector and Dutch Disease Economics: Survey and Consolidation," Oxford Economic Papers, Oxford University Press, vol. 36(3), pages 359-80, November.
  16. Papyrakis, E. & Gerlagh, R., 2004. "The resource curse hypothesis and its transmission channels," Open Access publications from Tilburg University urn:nbn:nl:ui:12-3764006, Tilburg University.
  17. MacDonald, Ronald, 1998. "What determines real exchange rates?: The long and the short of it," Journal of International Financial Markets, Institutions and Money, Elsevier, vol. 8(2), pages 117-153, June.
  18. Kenneth W. Clements & Jacob A. Frenkel, 1980. "Exchange Rates, Money and Relative Prices: The Dollar-Pound in the 1920's," NBER Working Papers 0429, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  19. Enrique Alberola & Susana Garcia-Cervero & Humberto López & Angel Ubide, 2005. "Quo vadis Euro?," International Finance 0507004, EconWPA.
  20. Thorvaldur Gylfason, 2001. "Natural Resources and Economic Growth: What Is the Connection?," CESifo Working Paper Series 530, CESifo Group Munich.
  21. Groen, Jan J. J., 2000. "The monetary exchange rate model as a long-run phenomenon," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 52(2), pages 299-319, December.
  22. Luca Antonio Ricci & Ronald MacDonald, 2002. "Purchasing Power Parity and New Trade Theory," IMF Working Papers 02/32, International Monetary Fund.
  23. Balázs �gert & László Halpern & Ronald MacDonald, 2006. "Equilibrium Exchange Rates in Transition Economies: Taking Stock of the Issues ," Journal of Economic Surveys, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 20(2), pages 257-324, 04.
  24. Stix, Helmut & Knell, Markus, 2003. "How Robustare Money Demand Estimations? A Meta-Analytic Approach," Working Papers 81, Oesterreichische Nationalbank (Austrian Central Bank).
Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

Citations

Citations are extracted by the CitEc Project, subscribe to its RSS feed for this item.
as in new window

Cited by:
  1. Égert, Balázs, 2009. "Dutch disease in former Soviet Union: Witch-hunting?," BOFIT Discussion Papers 4/2009, Bank of Finland, Institute for Economies in Transition.

Lists

This item is not listed on Wikipedia, on a reading list or among the top items on IDEAS.

Statistics

Access and download statistics

Corrections

When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:onb:oenbfi:y:2006:i:2:b:3. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: (Birgit Riedler).

If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

If references are entirely missing, you can add them using this form.

If the full references list an item that is present in RePEc, but the system did not link to it, you can help with this form.

If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.