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Dutch Disease in Former Soviet Union: Witch-Hunting

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  • Balázs Égert

Abstract

This study seeks to determine the extent to which countries of the former Soviet Union are "infected" by the Dutch Disease. We take a detailed look at the functioning of the transmission mechanism of the Dutch Disease, i.e. the chains that run from commodity prices to real output in manufacturing. We complement this with two econometric exercises. First, we estimate nominal and real exchange rate models to see whether commodity prices are correlated with the exchange rate. Second, we run growth equations to analyse the possible effects of commodity prices and the dependency of economic growth on natural resources.

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Bibliographic Info

Paper provided by CASE-Center for Social and Economic Research in its series CASE Network Studies and Analyses with number 0380.

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Length: 30 Pages
Date of creation: 2009
Date of revision:
Handle: RePEc:sec:cnstan:0380

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Keywords: Dutch disease; exchange rate; growth; oil; commodity prices; CIS; transition;

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References

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  1. Balázs Égert & László Halpern & Ronald MacDonald, 2005. "Equilibrium Exchange Rates in T ransition Economies: T aking Stock of the Issues," Working Papers 106, Oesterreichische Nationalbank (Austrian Central Bank).
  2. Benigno, Gianluca & Christoph Thoenissen, 2002. "Equilibrium Exchange Rates and Supply Side Performance," Royal Economic Society Annual Conference 2002 19, Royal Economic Society.
  3. Corden, W M, 1984. "Booming Sector and Dutch Disease Economics: Survey and Consolidation," Oxford Economic Papers, Oxford University Press, vol. 36(3), pages 359-80, November.
  4. Crespo-Cuaresma, Jesús & Fidrmuc, Jarko & McDonald, Ronald, 2003. "The monetary approach to exchange rates in the CEECs," BOFIT Discussion Papers 14/2003, Bank of Finland, Institute for Economies in Transition.
  5. Hamid Faruqee, 1995. "Long-Run Determinants of the Real Exchange Rate: A Stock-Flow Perspective," IMF Staff Papers, Palgrave Macmillan, vol. 42(1), pages 80-107, March.
  6. Tobias Kronenberg, 2002. "The Curse Of Natural Resources In The Transition Economies," Working Papers 241, Institut für Ost- und Südosteuropaforschung (Institute for East and South-East European Studies).
  7. Paul Collier & Benedikt Goderis, 2007. "Prospects for Commodity Exporters," World Economics, World Economics, Economic & Financial Publishing, 1 Ivory Square, Plantation Wharf, London, United Kingdom, SW11 3UE, vol. 8(2), pages 1-15, April.
  8. Hamid Faruqee, 1994. "Long-Run Determinants of the Real Exchange Rate," IMF Working Papers 94/90, International Monetary Fund.
  9. Balázs Égert & Carol S. Leonard, 2006. "The Dutch Disease in Kazakhstan: An Empirical Investigation," Focus on European Economic Integration, Oesterreichische Nationalbank (Austrian Central Bank), issue 2.
  10. Korhonen, Iikka & Juurikkala, Tuuli, 2007. "Equilibrium exchange rates in oil-dependent countries," BOFIT Discussion Papers 8/2007, Bank of Finland, Institute for Economies in Transition.
  11. Thorvaldur Gylfason, 2001. "Natural Resources and Economic Growth: What Is the Connection?," CESifo Working Paper Series 530, CESifo Group Munich.
  12. Balázs Égert & Kirsten Lommatzsch & Amina Lahrèche-Révil, 2007. "Real Exchange Rates in Small Open OECD and Transition Economies: Comparing Apples with Oranges?," William Davidson Institute Working Papers Series wp859, William Davidson Institute at the University of Michigan.
  13. Rudiger Ahrend & Donato de Rosa & William Tompson, 2007. "Russian Manufacturing and the Threat of ‘Dutch Disease': A Comparison of Competitiveness Developments in Russian and Ukrainian Industry," OECD Economics Department Working Papers 540, OECD Publishing.
  14. Oomes , Nienke & Kalcheva, Katerina, 2007. "Diagnosing Dutch disease: Does Russia have the symptoms?," BOFIT Discussion Papers 7/2007, Bank of Finland, Institute for Economies in Transition.
  15. Lopez, Humberto & Molina, Luis & Bussolo, Maurizio, 2007. "Remittances and the real exchange rate," Policy Research Working Paper Series 4213, The World Bank.
  16. Luca Antonio Ricci & Ronald MacDonald, 2002. "Purchasing Power Parity and New Trade Theory," IMF Working Papers 02/32, International Monetary Fund.
  17. Bruha, Jan & Podpiera, Jirí, 2007. "Transition economy convergence in a two-country model: implications for monetary integration," Working Paper Series 0740, European Central Bank.
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Cited by:
  1. Fakhri, Hasanov & Khudayar, Hasanli, 2011. "Why had the Money Market Approach been irrelevant in explaining inflation in Azerbaijan during the rapid economic growth period?," MPRA Paper 29559, University Library of Munich, Germany.
  2. Hasanov, Fakhri, 2010. "The impact of real oil price on real effective exchange rate: The case of Azerbaijan," MPRA Paper 33493, University Library of Munich, Germany.
  3. Hasanov, Fakhri & Huseynov, Fariz, 2013. "Bank credits and non-oil economic growth: Evidence from Azerbaijan," International Review of Economics & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 27(C), pages 597-610.

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