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The impact of the real exchange rate on non-oil exports. Is there an asymmetric adjustment towards the equilibrium?

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  • Fakhri Hasanov

    () (George Washington University)

Abstract

This study investigates the impact of the real exchange rate on the non-oil exports of the Republic of Azerbaijan in the framework of cointegration and an asymmetric error correction. Threshold and Momentum Threshold Autoregressive methods are applied over the quarterly period 2000Q1-2010Q4. The main finding of the study is that there is a long-run relationship between the variables with symmetric rather than asymmetric adjustment towards the equilibrium level.

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File URL: http://www.gwu.edu/~forcpgm/2012-005.pdf
File Function: First version, 2012
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Bibliographic Info

Paper provided by The George Washington University, Department of Economics, Research Program on Forecasting in its series Working Papers with number 2012-005.

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Length: 24 pages
Date of creation: May 2012
Date of revision:
Handle: RePEc:gwc:wpaper:2012-005

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  1. Rose, Andrew K. & Yellen, Janet L., 1989. "Is there a J-curve?," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 24(1), pages 53-68, July.
  2. Terasvirta, T & Anderson, H M, 1992. "Characterizing Nonlinearities in Business Cycles Using Smooth Transition Autoregressive Models," Journal of Applied Econometrics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 7(S), pages S119-36, Suppl. De.
  3. Sichel, Daniel E, 1993. "Business Cycle Asymmetry: A Deeper Look," Economic Inquiry, Western Economic Association International, vol. 31(2), pages 224-36, April.
  4. Duasa, Jarita, 2009. "Asymmetric cointegration relationship between real exchange rate and trade variables: The case of Malaysia," MPRA Paper 14535, University Library of Munich, Germany.
  5. Eitrheim, Øyvind & Teräsvirta, Timo, 1995. "Testing the Adequacy of Smooth Transition Autoregressive Models," Working Paper Series in Economics and Finance 56, Stockholm School of Economics.
  6. Rose, Andrew K., 1990. "Exchange rates and the trade balance : Some evidence from developing countries," Economics Letters, Elsevier, vol. 34(3), pages 271-275, November.
  7. Falk, Barry, 1986. "Further Evidence on the Asymmetric Behavior of Economic Time Series over the Business Cycle," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 94(5), pages 1096-1109, October.
  8. Bradley, Michael D & Jansen, Dennis W, 1997. "Nonlinear Business Cycle Dynamics: Cross-country Evidence on the Persistence of Aggregate Shocks," Economic Inquiry, Western Economic Association International, vol. 35(3), pages 495-509, July.
  9. Neftci, Salih N, 1984. "Are Economic Time Series Asymmetric over the Business Cycle?," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 92(2), pages 307-28, April.
  10. Michael Sturm & François Gurtner & Juan Gonzalez Alegre, 2009. "Fiscal policy challenges in oil-exporting countries – a review of key issues," Occasional Paper Series 104, European Central Bank.
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