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Real exchange rate dynamics in Macedonia: Old wisdoms and new insights

Author

Listed:
  • Bogoev, Jane
  • Bojceva Terzijan, Sultanija
  • Égert, Balázs
  • Petrovska, Magdalena

Abstract

The ambition of this paper is to analyse real exchange rate dynamics in Macedonia relying on a highly disaggregated dataset. We complement the indirect evidence reported in Loko and Tuladhar (2005) and we provide direct evidence on the irrelevance of the Balassa-Samuelson effect for overall inflation via service prices in the CPI. Furthermore, we estimate variants of the BEER model. We show that alternative econometric techniques and data definitions bear an impact on the robustness of the estimation results. Overall, productivity, government consumption and the openness variables were found to be fairly robust in terms of sign and size. An increase/decrease in the productivity variables is associated with an appreciation/depreciation of the real effective exchange rate. Given that the B-S effect admittedly has a very limited role to play through nontradable prices in the CPI, this relationship could be explained by the (inverse) quality effect proposed by Loko and Tuladhar and, possibly in addition to that, by the nontradable component of tradable prices.

Suggested Citation

  • Bogoev, Jane & Bojceva Terzijan, Sultanija & Égert, Balázs & Petrovska, Magdalena, 2007. "Real exchange rate dynamics in Macedonia: Old wisdoms and new insights," Economics Discussion Papers 2007-37, Kiel Institute for the World Economy (IfW Kiel).
    • Handle: RePEc:zbw:ifwedp:6164
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    1. Mr. Boileau Loko & Ms. Anita Tuladhar, 2005. "Labor Productivity and Real Exchange Rate: The Balassa-Samuelson Disconnect in the former Yugoslav Republic of Macedonia," IMF Working Papers 2005/113, International Monetary Fund.
    2. Canzoneri, Matthew B. & Cumby, Robert E. & Diba, Behzad, 1999. "Relative labor productivity and the real exchange rate in the long run: evidence for a panel of OECD countries," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 47(2), pages 245-266, April.
    3. Balázs Égert & László Halpern & Ronald MacDonald, 2006. "Equilibrium Exchange Rates in Transition Economies: Taking Stock of the Issues," Journal of Economic Surveys, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 20(2), pages 257-324, April.
    4. Stock, James H & Watson, Mark W, 1993. "A Simple Estimator of Cointegrating Vectors in Higher Order Integrated Systems," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 61(4), pages 783-820, July.
    5. Balázs Égert & Kirsten Lommatzsch, 2005. "Equilibrium Exchange Rates in the Transition: The Tradable Price-Based Real Appreciation and Estimation Uncertainty," Springer Books, in: Paul J.J. Welfens & Anna Wziątek-Kubiak (ed.), Structural Change and Exchange Rate Dynamics, pages 205-239, Springer.
    6. International Monetary Fund, 2001. "Interpreting Real Exchange Rate Movements in Transition Countries," IMF Working Papers 2001/056, International Monetary Fund.
    7. Mr. Ronald MacDonald & Mr. Peter B. Clark, 1998. "Exchange Rates and Economic Fundamentals: A Methodological Comparison of BEERs and FEERs," IMF Working Papers 1998/067, International Monetary Fund.
    8. Lopez, Humberto & Molina, Luis & Bussolo, Maurizio, 2007. "Remittances and the real exchange rate," Policy Research Working Paper Series 4213, The World Bank.
    9. Miss Eva Gutierrez, 2006. "Export Performance and External Competitiveness in the former Yugoslav Republic of Macedonia," IMF Working Papers 2006/261, International Monetary Fund.
    10. Egert, Balazs & Lommatzsch, Kirsten & Lahreche-Revil, Amina, 2006. "Real exchange rates in small open OECD and transition economies: Comparing apples with oranges?," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 30(12), pages 3393-3406, December.
    11. MacDonald, Ronald, 1998. "What determines real exchange rates?: The long and the short of it," Journal of International Financial Markets, Institutions and Money, Elsevier, vol. 8(2), pages 117-153, June.
    12. Jan Bruha & Jiri Podpiera, 2006. "Transition Economy Convergence in a Two-Country Model," Computing in Economics and Finance 2006 154, Society for Computational Economics.
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    14. Brůha, Jan & Podpiera, Jiří, 2007. "Transition economy convergence in a two-country model: implications for monetary integration," Working Paper Series 740, European Central Bank.
    15. László Halpern & Charles Wyplosz, 1997. "Equilibrium Exchange Rates in Transition Economies," IMF Staff Papers, Palgrave Macmillan, vol. 44(4), pages 430-461, December.
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    17. Marit Hinnosaar & Hannes Kaadu & Lenno Uuskula, 2005. "Estimating the equilibrium exchange rate of the Estonian kroon," Bank of Estonia Working Papers 2005-2, Bank of Estonia, revised 10 Oct 2005.
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    Cited by:

    1. Josheski, Dushko & Koteski, Cane, 2011. "Analysis of Purchasing power parity with data for Macedonia," MPRA Paper 32023, University Library of Munich, Germany, revised 2011.
    2. International Monetary Fund, 2009. "Former Yugoslav Republic of Macedonia: Selected Issues," IMF Staff Country Reports 2009/061, International Monetary Fund.
    3. Bucevska Vesna & Mojanoski Goran, 2018. "Identifying the determinants that cause the value movements of currencies Denar, Kuna and Dinar," Croatian Review of Economic, Business and Social Statistics, Sciendo, vol. 4(2), pages 78-85, November.

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    More about this item

    Keywords

    real exchange rate; Balassa-Samuelson; Macedonia;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • E31 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles - - - Price Level; Inflation; Deflation
    • F31 - International Economics - - International Finance - - - Foreign Exchange
    • O11 - Economic Development, Innovation, Technological Change, and Growth - - Economic Development - - - Macroeconomic Analyses of Economic Development
    • P17 - Political Economy and Comparative Economic Systems - - Capitalist Economies - - - Performance and Prospects

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