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PPP-based analysis of New Zealand's equilibrium exchange rate

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Abstract

We use two alternative methodologies to estimate an equilibrium value for the USD/NZD bilateral exchange rate. A cross-country comparison of prices for individual goods, augmented with a Balassa-Samuelson variable suggests that the New Zealand dollar was close to fairly valued in 1999, but undervalued by slightly more than 10 per cent in 2000. Equilibrium was estimated at roughly US$0.52. The second methodology uses dynamic OLS and panel dynamic OLS, to test for a cointegrating relationship between the nominal exchange rate and relative prices, as well as a number of other possible explanatory variables. Using a long sample period for New Zealand, we find some tentative evidence of a stable PPP relationship for the USD/NZD bilateral exchange rate, and this model suggests that the equilibrium value of the dollar is roughly US$0.60. However, the results are very sensitive to the sample period, and in most specifications, particularly those that incorporate the recent depreciation in the New Zealand dollar, the data are unsupportive of a long-run PPP relationship. Therefore, the results should be interpreted with caution.

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Bibliographic Info

Paper provided by Reserve Bank of New Zealand in its series Reserve Bank of New Zealand Discussion Paper Series with number DP2001/01.

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Length: 32p
Date of creation: Jul 2001
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Handle: RePEc:nzb:nzbdps:2001/01

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  1. Saikkonen, Pentti, 1991. "Asymptotically Efficient Estimation of Cointegration Regressions," Econometric Theory, Cambridge University Press, vol. 7(01), pages 1-21, March.
  2. Frankel, Jeffrey A & Rose, Andrew K, 1995. "A Panel Project on Purchasing Power Parity: Mean Reversion Within and Between Countries," CEPR Discussion Papers 1128, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
  3. Peter C.B. Phillips & Bruce E. Hansen, 1988. "Statistical Inference in Instrumental Variables," Cowles Foundation Discussion Papers 869R, Cowles Foundation for Research in Economics, Yale University, revised Apr 1989.
  4. Peter C.B. Phillips & Sam Ouliaris, 1987. "Asymptotic Properties of Residual Based Tests for Cointegration," Cowles Foundation Discussion Papers 847R, Cowles Foundation for Research in Economics, Yale University, revised Jul 1988.
  5. Stefano Scarpetta & Andrea Bassanini & Dirk Pilat & Paul Schreyer, 2000. "Economic Growth in the OECD Area: Recent Trends at the Aggregate and Sectoral Level," OECD Economics Department Working Papers 248, OECD Publishing.
  6. repec:cup:etheor:v:7:y:1991:i:1:p:1-21 is not listed on IDEAS
  7. MacDonald, Ronald, 2000. "Concepts to Calculate Equilibrium Exchange Rates: An Overview," Discussion Paper Series 1: Economic Studies 2000,03, Deutsche Bundesbank, Research Centre.
  8. Rebecca L Driver & Peter F Westaway, 2005. "Concepts of equilibrium exchange rates," Bank of England working papers 248, Bank of England.
  9. Kenneth Rogoff, 1996. "The Purchasing Power Parity Puzzle," Journal of Economic Literature, American Economic Association, vol. 34(2), pages 647-668, June.
  10. Ronald MacDonald, 1995. "Long-Run Exchange Rate Modeling," IMF Working Papers 95/14, International Monetary Fund.
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Cited by:
  1. Jakub Borowski & Michal Brzoza- Brzezina, 2004. "Designing Poland’s Macroeconomic Strategy on the Way to the Euro Area," Macroeconomics 0404015, EconWPA.
  2. Nils Bjorksten & Anne-Marie Brook, 2002. "Exchange rate strategies for small open developed economies such as New Zealand," Reserve Bank of New Zealand Bulletin, Reserve Bank of New Zealand, vol. 65, March.
  3. Égert, Balázs & Halpern, László & MacDonald, Ronald, 2004. "Equilibrium Exchange Rates in Transition Economies: Taking Stock of the Issues," CEPR Discussion Papers 4809, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
  4. Dominick Stephens, 2004. "The equilibrium exchange rate according to PPP and UIP," Reserve Bank of New Zealand Discussion Paper Series DP 2004/03, Reserve Bank of New Zealand.
  5. Jakub Borowski & Michal Brzoza- Brzezina & Piotr Szpunar, 2003. "Exchange Rate Regimes and Poland's Participation in ERM II," Macroeconomics 0302002, EconWPA.
  6. Simon Wren-Lewis, 2004. "A model of Equilibrium Exchange Rates for the New Zealand and Australian dollar," Reserve Bank of New Zealand Discussion Paper Series DP 2004/07, Reserve Bank of New Zealand.
  7. Daan Steenkamp, 2013. "Productivity and the New Zealand Dollar: Balassa-Samuelson tests on sectoral data," Reserve Bank of New Zealand Analytical Notes series AN2013/01, Reserve Bank of New Zealand.
  8. Rashid, Abdul & Saedan, Mashael, 2013. "Financial Crisis and Exchange Rates in Emerging Economics: An Empirical Analysis using PPP-UIP-Framework," MPRA Paper 49832, University Library of Munich, Germany.
  9. Hugo Oliveros & Carlos Huertas, . "Desequilibrios Nominales y Reales del Tipo de Cambio en Colombia," Borradores de Economia 220, Banco de la Republica de Colombia.
  10. Égert, Balázs, 2004. "Assessing equilibrium exchange rates in CEE acceding countries: Can we have DEER with BEER without FEER? A critical survey of the literature," BOFIT Discussion Papers 1/2004, Bank of Finland, Institute for Economies in Transition.
  11. Abdul RASHID, 2009. "Testing The Modified-Combined Ppp And Uip Hypothesis In South Asian Economies," Applied Econometrics and International Development, Euro-American Association of Economic Development, vol. 9(1).
  12. repec:onb:oenbwp:y::i:106:b:1 is not listed on IDEAS
  13. Maeso-Fernandez, Francisco & Osbat, Chiara & Schnatz, Bernd, 2004. "Towards the estimation of equilibrium exchange rates for CEE acceding countries: methodological issues and a panel cointegration perspective," Working Paper Series 0353, European Central Bank.
  14. Rashid, Abdul & Husain, Fazal, 2012. "On the modeling of exchange rate: some evidence from Pakistan," MPRA Paper 47547, University Library of Munich, Germany.

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