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Desequilibrios Nominales y Reales del Tipo de Cambio en Colombia

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Author Info
Hugo Oliveros
Carlos Huertas ()
Abstract

La estimación de los desequilibrios nominales y reales del tipo de cambio en Colombia es abordada en este docuemnto a partir de la construcción de dos componentes: el permanente asociado con una tendencia estocástica y el transitorio vinculado con el ciclo. La separación entre lo permanente y lo transitorio se hace usando relaciones de largo plazo entre el tipo de cambio nominal (real) y sus determinantes fundamentales. La estimación de los desequilibrios nominales y reales(componente transitorio) se lleva a cabo para diferentes frecuencias (anual y trimestral) y periodos de información y se usan varios modelos de determinación del tipo de cambio nominal y real. El concepto de "common trends" (dual de cointegración) es introducido aquí para construir una variable no-observada, "el nivel de equilibrio" y para derivar medidas de desequilibrio. Es decir, se opta por derivar el componente permanente o de largo plazo del tipo de cambio nominal (o real) y asociarlo a su nivel de equilibrio y obtener por residuo su componente transitorio y relacionarlo con el desequilibrio.Dicha descomposición además de recuperar el componente no-estacionario (la tendencia estocástica) y estacionario (el ciclo), se hace usando los determinnates del tipo de cambio. Los resultados sugieren que el tipo de cambio real estuvo por debajo de su nivel de equilibrio durante los últimos periodos y que a marzo de 2002 continuaba ligeramente por debajo de éste.

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Paper provided by Banco de la Republica de Colombia in its series Borradores de Economia with number 220.

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  1. Anne-Marie Brook & David Hargreaves, 2001. "PPP-based analysis of New Zealand's equilibrium exchange rate," Reserve Bank of New Zealand Discussion Paper Series DP2001/01, Reserve Bank of New Zealand. [Downloadable!]
  2. Martha Misas & Hugo Oliveros, . "Cointegración, exogeneidad y Crítica de Lucas: Funciones de Demanda de Dinero en Colombia: Un ejercicio más," Borradores de Economia 075, Banco de la Republica de Colombia. [Downloadable!]
  3. Engel, Charles, 1993. "Real exchange rates and relative prices : An empirical investigation," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 32(1), pages 35-50, August. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  4. Martha Misas & Maria Teresa Ramirez & Luisa Fernanda Silva, 2001. "Exportaciones No Tradicionales En Colombia Y Sus Determinantes," ENSAYOS SOBRE POLÍTICA ECONÓMICA, BANCO DE LA REPÚBLICA - ESPE. [Downloadable!]
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  5. Charles Nelson & Eric Zivot, 2000. "Why are Beveridge-Nelson and Unobserved-Component Decompositions of GDP so Different?," Econometric Society World Congress 2000 Contributed Papers 0692, Econometric Society. [Downloadable!]
  6. John H. Cochrane, 1994. "Univariate vs. Multivariate Forecasts of GNP Growth and Stock Returns: Evidence and Implications for the Persistence of Shocks, Detrending Methods," NBER Working Papers 3427, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  7. Quah, Danny, 1992. "The Relative Importance of Permanent and Transitory Components: Identification and Some Theoretical Bounds," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 60(1), pages 107-18, January. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  8. Hugo Oliveros & Luisa Fernanda Silva, 2001. "La Demanda Por Importaciones En Colombia," BORRADORES DE ECONOMIA 002967, BANCO DE LA REPÚBLICA. [Downloadable!]
  9. Enrique Alberola & Humberto López, 2001. "Internal and external exchange rate equilibrium in a cointegration framework. An application to the Spanish peseta," Spanish Economic Review, Springer, vol. 3(1), pages 23-40. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  10. Campbell, J.Y. & Perron, P., 1991. "Pitfalls and Opportunities: What Macroeconomics should know about unit roots," Papers 360, Princeton, Department of Economics - Econometric Research Program.
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  11. Gonzalo, Jesus & Ng, Serena, 2001. "A systematic framework for analyzing the dynamic effects of permanent and transitory shocks," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 25(10), pages 1527-1546, October. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  12. Peter B. Clark & Ronald MacDonald, 2000. "Filtering the BEER - A Permanent and Transitory Decomposition," IMF Working Papers 00/144, International Monetary Fund.
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