Advanced Search
MyIDEAS: Login

The relationship between the Beveridge-Nelson decomposition and other permanent-transitory decompositions that are popular in economics

Contents:

Author Info

  • Oh, Kum Hwa
  • Zivot, Eric
  • Creal, Drew

Abstract

The Beveridge-Nelson (BN) decomposition is a model-based method for decomposing time series into permanent and transitory components. When constructed from an ARIMA model, it is closely related to decompositions based on unobserved components (UC) models with random walk trends and covariance stationary cycles. The decomposition when extended to I(2) models can also be related to non-model-based signal extraction filters such as the HP filter. We show that the BN decomposition provides information on the correlation between the permanent and transitory shocks in a certain class of UC models. The correlation between components is known to determine the smoothed estimates of components from UC models. The BN decomposition can also be used to evaluate the efficacy of alternative methods. We also demonstrate, contrary to popular belief, that the BN decomposition can produce smooth cycles if the reduced form forecasting model is appropriately specified.

Download Info

If you experience problems downloading a file, check if you have the proper application to view it first. In case of further problems read the IDEAS help page. Note that these files are not on the IDEAS site. Please be patient as the files may be large.
File URL: http://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/B6VC0-4TCR1VX-1/2/38ffce3e1e5f7c4a3a558a9f116aada9
Download Restriction: Full text for ScienceDirect subscribers only

As the access to this document is restricted, you may want to look for a different version under "Related research" (further below) or search for a different version of it.

Bibliographic Info

Article provided by Elsevier in its journal Journal of Econometrics.

Volume (Year): 146 (2008)
Issue (Month): 2 (October)
Pages: 207-219

as in new window
Handle: RePEc:eee:econom:v:146:y:2008:i:2:p:207-219

Contact details of provider:
Web page: http://www.elsevier.com/locate/jeconom

Related research

Keywords: Permanent-transitory decomposition Trend-cycle decomposition Unobserved components time series model State-space models Kalman filter;

References

References listed on IDEAS
Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.:
as in new window
  1. James H. Stock & Mark W. Watson, 2006. "Why Has U.S. Inflation Become Harder to Forecast?," NBER Working Papers 12324, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  2. Morley, James C., 2002. "A state-space approach to calculating the Beveridge-Nelson decomposition," Economics Letters, Elsevier, vol. 75(1), pages 123-127, March.
  3. Evans, George & Reichlin, Lucrezia, 1994. "Information, forecasts, and measurement of the business cycle," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 33(2), pages 233-254, April.
  4. Danny Quah, 1991. "The Relative Importance of Permanent and Transitory Components: Identification and Some Theoretical Bounds," FMG Discussion Papers dp126, Financial Markets Group.
  5. Gomez, Victor, 2001. "The Use of Butterworth Filters for Trend and Cycle Estimation in Economic Time Series," Journal of Business & Economic Statistics, American Statistical Association, vol. 19(3), pages 365-73, July.
  6. Tommaso Proietti, 2006. "Trend-Cycle Decompositions with Correlated Components," Econometric Reviews, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 25(1), pages 61-84.
  7. Matthew Shapiro & Mark Watson, 1988. "Sources of Business Cycles Fluctuations," NBER Chapters, in: NBER Macroeconomics Annual 1988, Volume 3, pages 111-156 National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  8. Heather M. Anderson & Chin Nam Low & Ralph Snyder, 2004. "Single Source of Error State Space Approach to the Beveridge Nelson Decomposition," Monash Econometrics and Business Statistics Working Papers 21/04, Monash University, Department of Econometrics and Business Statistics.
  9. Harvey, Andrew C. & Trimbur, Thomas M. & Van Dijk, Herman K., 2007. "Trends and cycles in economic time series: A Bayesian approach," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 140(2), pages 618-649, October.
  10. James C. Morley & Charles R. Nelson & Eric Zivot, 2003. "Why Are the Beveridge-Nelson and Unobserved-Components Decompositions of GDP So Different?," The Review of Economics and Statistics, MIT Press, vol. 85(2), pages 235-243, May.
  11. Kum Hwa Oh & Eric Zivot, 2006. "The Clark Model with Correlated Components," Working Papers UWEC-2006-06, University of Washington, Department of Economics.
  12. Koopman, S.J.M. & Shephard, N. & Doornik, J.A., 1998. "Statistical Algorithms for Models in State Space Using SsfPack 2.2," Discussion Paper 1998-141, Tilburg University, Center for Economic Research.
  13. James H. Stock & Mark W. Watson, 2007. "Erratum to "Why Has U.S. Inflation Become Harder to Forecast?"," Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 39(7), pages 1849-1849, October.
  14. Campbell, John Y & Mankiw, N Gregory, 1987. "Are Output Fluctuations Transitory?," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, MIT Press, vol. 102(4), pages 857-80, November.
  15. Newbold, Paul, 1990. "Precise and efficient computation of the Beveridge-Nelson decomposition of economic time series," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 26(3), pages 453-457, December.
  16. Daisuke Nagakura & Eric Zivot, 2007. "Implications of Two Measures of Persistence for Correlation Between Permanent and Transitory Shocks in U.S. Real GDP," Working Papers UWEC-2007-07, University of Washington, Department of Economics.
  17. Lippi, Marco & Reichlin, Lucrezia, 1992. "On persistence of shocks to economic variables : A common misconception," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 29(1), pages 87-93, February.
  18. Gomez, Victor, 1999. "Three Equivalent Methods for Filtering Finite Nonstationary Time Series," Journal of Business & Economic Statistics, American Statistical Association, vol. 17(1), pages 109-16, January.
  19. Ord, J.K. & Koehler, A. & Snyder, R.D., 1995. "Estimation and Prediction for a Class of Dynamic Nonlinear Statistical Models," Monash Econometrics and Business Statistics Working Papers 4/95, Monash University, Department of Econometrics and Business Statistics.
  20. Clark, Peter K, 1987. "The Cyclical Component of U.S. Economic Activity," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, MIT Press, vol. 102(4), pages 797-814, November.
  21. Robert J. Hodrick & Edward Prescott, 1981. "Post-War U.S. Business Cycles: An Empirical Investigation," Discussion Papers 451, Northwestern University, Center for Mathematical Studies in Economics and Management Science.
  22. Harvey, A C & Jaeger, A, 1993. "Detrending, Stylized Facts and the Business Cycle," Journal of Applied Econometrics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 8(3), pages 231-47, July-Sept.
  23. Arino, Miguel A. & Newbold, Paul, 1998. "Computation of the Beveridge-Nelson decomposition for multivariate economic time series," Economics Letters, Elsevier, vol. 61(1), pages 37-42, October.
  24. Harvey, A.C. & Koopman, S.J.M., 1999. "Signal Extraction and the Formulation of Unobserved Components Models," Discussion Paper 1999-44, Tilburg University, Center for Economic Research.
  25. Harvey, A C, 1985. "Trends and Cycles in Macroeconomic Time Series," Journal of Business & Economic Statistics, American Statistical Association, vol. 3(3), pages 216-27, June.
  26. Cuddington, John T. & Winters, L. Alan, 1987. "The Beveridge-Nelson decomposition of economic time series : A quick computational method," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 19(1), pages 125-127, January.
Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

Citations

Citations are extracted by the CitEc Project, subscribe to its RSS feed for this item.
as in new window

Cited by:
  1. Boz, Emine & Daude, Christian & Bora Durdu, C., 2011. "Emerging market business cycles: Learning about the trend," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 58(6), pages 616-631.
  2. Norden, Simon van & Tian, Jing & Jacobs, Jan & Dungey, Mardi, 2012. "On trend-cycle decomposition and data revision," Research Report 12009-EEF, University of Groningen, Research Institute SOM (Systems, Organisations and Management).
  3. Xu, Zhiwei, 2008. "Univariate Unobserved-Component Model with a Non-Random-Walk Permanent Component," MPRA Paper 50053, University Library of Munich, Germany.
  4. Mardi Dungey & Jan P.A.M. Jacobs & Jing Tian & Simon van Norden, 2013. "Trend-cycle decomposition: implications from an exact structural identification," Working Papers 13-22, Federal Reserve Bank of Philadelphia.
  5. Xu, Zhiwei, 2008. "Univariate Unobserved-Component Model with Non-Random Walk Permanent Component," MPRA Paper 46162, University Library of Munich, Germany.
  6. Xu, Zhiwei, 2008. "Univariate Unobserved-Component Model with Non-Random Walk Permanent Component," MPRA Paper 12038, University Library of Munich, Germany.

Lists

This item is not listed on Wikipedia, on a reading list or among the top items on IDEAS.

Statistics

Access and download statistics

Corrections

When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:eee:econom:v:146:y:2008:i:2:p:207-219. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: (Zhang, Lei).

If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

If references are entirely missing, you can add them using this form.

If the full references list an item that is present in RePEc, but the system did not link to it, you can help with this form.

If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.