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Descomponiendo el Efecto del Gasto Público en la Tasa de Cambio Real: Una Aproximación al Caso Colombiano || Decomposing the Effect of Public Spending on the Real Exchange Rate: An Approximation to the Colombian Case

Author

Listed:
  • Alonso Cifuentes, Julio César

    (Departamento de Economía.Universidad Icesi. Cali (Colombia))

  • Jaramillo Flechas, Luis Eduardo

    (Oficina de Gestión de Proyectos de Investigación. Instituto Colombiano para la Evaluación de la Educación, Icfes. (Colombia))

Abstract

Este trabajo analiza la relación entre la composición del gasto público y la tasa de cambio real (TCR) en Colombia, dada la recomposición desde 2004 desde los gastos de funcionamiento hacia la inversión pública. Los resultados sugieren que los modelos empíricos se comportan mejor al utilizar el precio relativo de los no transables y no un índice de tasa de cambio real basado en la paridad de poder adquisitivo. Asimismo, se evidencia que el comportamiento de la TCR se explica principalmente por factores de oferta y que, sin la recomposición del gasto público, su nivel esperado habría sido muy similar al observado. || This paper studies the relation between government spending composition and long-run behavior of Colombian real Exchange rate given the recomposition since 2004 from public consumption to public investment. Our results suggest that empirical models work better when the relative price of non-tradables is used as a measure of the real Exchange rate instead of an index based on the purchasing power parity. Besides, there is evidence that real exchange rate behavior is mainly explained by supply side factors and that without the recomposition, expected real Exchange rate would have been close to the observed one.

Suggested Citation

  • Alonso Cifuentes, Julio César & Jaramillo Flechas, Luis Eduardo, 2019. "Descomponiendo el Efecto del Gasto Público en la Tasa de Cambio Real: Una Aproximación al Caso Colombiano || Decomposing the Effect of Public Spending on the Real Exchange Rate: An Approximation to th," Revista de Métodos Cuantitativos para la Economía y la Empresa = Journal of Quantitative Methods for Economics and Business Administration, Universidad Pablo de Olavide, Department of Quantitative Methods for Economics and Business Administration, vol. 27(1), pages 91-114, June.
    • Handle: RePEc:pab:rmcpee:v:27:y:2019:i:1:p:91-114
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    More about this item

    Keywords

    gasto público; tasa de cambio real; precio relativo de bienes no transables; desalineamiento; Balassa-Samuelson; government spending; real exchange rate; relative price of non-tradables; misalignment; Balassa-Samuelson.;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • F41 - International Economics - - Macroeconomic Aspects of International Trade and Finance - - - Open Economy Macroeconomics
    • E62 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Macroeconomic Policy, Macroeconomic Aspects of Public Finance, and General Outlook - - - Fiscal Policy; Modern Monetary Theory
    • C32 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Multiple or Simultaneous Equation Models; Multiple Variables - - - Time-Series Models; Dynamic Quantile Regressions; Dynamic Treatment Effect Models; Diffusion Processes; State Space Models

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