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La Tasa De Cambio Real En Colombia. ¿Muy Lejos Del Equilibrio?

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Author Info
Juan José Echevarría ()
Diego Vásquez ()
Mauricio Villamizar ()

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Abstract

La discusión sobre el comportamiento y los determinantes de la tasa de cambio ha resurgido en Colombia a raíz de la revaluación que tuvo lugar en 2004 (cercana a 12%, la mayor en la región) y la que ha tenido lugar en 2005. El sector privado en su conjunto ha manifestado honda preocupación ante lo sucedido, incluso con el apoyo de algunos grupos que podrían beneficiarse transitoriamente con la revaluación. En este trabajo se presenta la evolución de diferentes tasas de cambio, se consideran sus determinantes, con base en los cuales se explica la revaluación de 1991-97 y la posterior devaluación de 1997- 03. Luego de comparar nuestros resultados con los de otros trabajos sobre Colombia, la Sección final discute cuán lejos del equilibrio se encuentra la tasa de cambio actual. Se define la tasa de cambio de equilibrio o de largo plazo como aquella que resulta al remover los elementos especulativos (reflejo de disturbios en los mercados de activos) y cíclicos (dadas las rigideces en precios y salarios). Dicha tasa es compatible con una balanza de pagos sostenible en el largo plazo para un nivel dado de los fundamentos.

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Paper provided by BANCO DE LA REPÚBLICA in its series BORRADORES DE ECONOMIA with number 003083.

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Length: 67
Date of creation: 31 May 2005
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Handle: RePEc:col:000094:003083

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References listed on IDEAS
Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.:
  1. Guillermo Calvo & Carmen Reinhart & Carlos A. Végh Gramont, 1994. "Targeting the Real Exchange Rate: Theory and Evidence," IMF Working Papers 94/22, International Monetary Fund.
    Other versions:
  2. Frenkel, Jacob A. & Mussa, Michael L., 1985. "Asset markets, exchange rates and the balance of payments," Handbook of International Economics, in: R. W. Jones & P. B. Kenen (ed.), Handbook of International Economics, edition 1, volume 2, chapter 14, pages 679-747 Elsevier. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  3. Jacob A. Frenkel & Michael L. Mussa, 1985. "Asset Markets, Exchange Rates and the Balance of Payments," NBER Working Papers 1287, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  4. Flood, Robert P. & Rose, Andrew K., 1995. "Fixing exchange rates A virtual quest for fundamentals," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 36(1), pages 3-37, August. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  5. Cheung, Yin-Wong & Lai, Kon S, 1993. "Finite-Sample Sizes of Johansen's Likelihood Ration Tests for Conintegration," Oxford Bulletin of Economics and Statistics, Department of Economics, University of Oxford, vol. 55(3), pages 313-28, August.
  6. Reinhart, Carmen & Goldstein, Morris & Kaminsky, Graciela, 2000. "Assessing financial vulnerability, an early warning system for emerging markets: Introduction," MPRA Paper 13629, University Library of Munich, Germany. [Downloadable!]
  7. Sebastian Edwards & Domingo F. Cavallo & Arminio Fraga & Jacob Frenkel, 2003. "Exchange Rate Regimes," NBER Chapters, in: Economic and Financial Crises in Emerging Market Economies, pages 31-92 National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc. [Downloadable!]
  8. Hugo Oliveros C. & Carlos Huertas C., 2003. "Desequilibrios nominales y reales del tipo de cambio en Colombia," ENSAYOS SOBRE POLÍTICA ECONÓMICA, BANCO DE LA REPÚBLICA - ESPE. [Downloadable!]
  9. Ilan Goldfajn & Rodrigo O. Valdes, 1996. "The Aftermath of Appreciations," NBER Working Papers 5650, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  10. Hamid Faruqee, 1994. "Long-Run Determinants of the Real Exchange Rate - A Stock-Flow Perspective," IMF Working Papers 94/90, International Monetary Fund.
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Cited by:
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  1. Jesús Ferreyra & Jorge Salas, 2006. "The Equilibrium Real Exchange Rate in Peru: BEER Models and Confidence Band Building," Working Papers 2006-006, Banco Central de Reserva del Perú. [Downloadable!]
  2. Leonardo Villar & Pilar Esguerra, 2005. "El Comercio Exterior Colombiano En El Siglo Xx," BORRADORES DE ECONOMIA 002468, BANCO DE LA REPÚBLICA. [Downloadable!]
  3. Leonardo Villar & Pilar Esguerra, . "Comercio Exterior Colombiano En El Siglo Xx," Borradores de Economia 358, Banco de la Republica de Colombia. [Downloadable!]
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