Estimation of the Equilibrium Real Exchange Rate in Russia: Trade-Balance Approach
AbstractThe paper estimates the equilibrium real exchange rate (ERER) in Russia for 1995-20065 using the partial-equilibrium version of the trade-balance approach. The three-good framework is applied, allowing distinction between the RER for imports and RER for exports. The terms of trade are viewed as exogenous. Russia’s export demand is regarded as infinitely price elastic, implying the estimation of export supply function. Russian imports are assumed to be demand determined. The estimation of the trade-volume equations is based on the search of cointegrating relationships. The import elasticities are in line with estimates obtained in other studies. The estimations for the export supply equation confirm “supply elasticity pessimism”. The ERER simulations reveal the degree of rouble overvaluation of 25%-40%, depending on the measure of the RER used, before the August 1998 crisis. In recent years, given the surge in oil prices and pro-active exchange rate policy of the Bank of Russia, the rouble appears to be substantially undervalued. In 2004-2006, given the surge in oil prices and pro-active exchange rate policy of the Bank of Russia, the rouble appears to be substantially undervalued: by 40-70% on average, depending on the measure of the RER used.
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Bibliographic InfoPaper provided by Center for Economic and Financial Research (CEFIR) in its series Working Papers with number w0102.
Length: 84 pages
Date of creation: May 2007
Date of revision:
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Equilibrium Real Exchange Rate; Trade Elasticities; Russia;
Find related papers by JEL classification:
- C22 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Single Equation Models; Single Variables - - - Time-Series Models; Dynamic Quantile Regressions; Dynamic Treatment Effect Models
- E52 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Monetary Policy, Central Banking, and the Supply of Money and Credit - - - Monetary Policy
- F4 - International Economics - - Macroeconomic Aspects of International Trade and Finance
This paper has been announced in the following NEP Reports:
- NEP-ALL-2007-06-11 (All new papers)
- NEP-CBA-2007-06-11 (Central Banking)
- NEP-IFN-2007-06-11 (International Finance)
- NEP-MAC-2007-06-11 (Macroeconomics)
- NEP-TRA-2007-06-11 (Transition Economics)
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