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Efectividad de la Intervención Discrecional del Banco de la Répública en el Mercado Cambiario

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Author Info

  • Jorge Toro

    ()

  • Juan Manuel Julio

    ()

Abstract

En este trabajo se hace una evaluación de la efectividad de la intervención discrecional utilizando una base de datos única que contiene información de alta frecuencia sobre el comportamiento intradía de la tasa de cambio, y de la intervención del Banco de la República. Se estima un modelo ARCH para los retornos (variaciones) de la tasa de cambio en intervalos de diez minutos. Se encuentra que la intervención obtiene el efecto deseado (un incremento permanente en la tasa de devaluación) sólo si se emite una señal creíble y no ambigua, acompañada de montos de intervención significativos. Adicionalmente, se obtiene que el diferencial entre la tasa de interés interna y externa es un determinante fundamental del retorno promedio. El conflicto entre el esquema de inflación objetivo y la intervención cambiaria ha debilitado la credibilidad de los agentes sobre la efectividad de la intervención, lo que se ha reflejado en un incremento de la volatilidad de los retornos. Los resultados econométricos son consistentes con la transmisión de los efectos a través del canal de Microestructura, y de la debilidad del canal de señales.

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Bibliographic Info

Paper provided by Banco de la Republica de Colombia in its series Borradores de Economia with number 336.

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Handle: RePEc:bdr:borrec:336

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Cited by:
  1. Juan José Echavarría & Diego Vásquez & Mauricio Villamizar, . "La tasa de cambio Real en Colombia. ¿Muy Lejos del Equilibrio?," Borradores de Economia 337, Banco de la Republica de Colombia.
  2. Hernando Vargas Herrera & Andrés González & Diego Rodríguez, 2013. "Foreign Exchange Intervention in Colombia," BORRADORES DE ECONOMIA 010465, BANCO DE LA REPÚBLICA.
  3. David Fernando LOPEZ ANGARITA, 2006. "Nivel óptimo de Reservas Internacionales y crisis cambiaria en Colombia," ARCHIVOS DE ECONOMÍA 003273, DEPARTAMENTO NACIONAL DE PLANEACIÓN.

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