IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/a/col/000442/014936.html
   My bibliography  Save this article

Dinámica del tipo de cambio, quiebre estructural e intervenciones de política en Colombia

Author

Listed:
  • Jorge Mario Uribe
  • Natalia Restrepo López

Abstract

Dinámica del tipo de cambio, quiebre estructural e intervenciones de política en Colombia En este documento se explora el comportamiento reciente del tipo de cambio en Colombia durante el periodo 2000-2014. Se identifican algunas de las características del proceso estocástico que lo describe, haciendo énfasis en la detección de quiebres estructurales o raíces unitarias. Una vez detectados los quiebres estructurales en el tipo de cambio, se evalúa la coincidencia de estos con las intervenciones del banco central en el mercado cambiario. Los resultados senalan que el tipo de cambio puede ser descrito por una caminata aleatoria o por una serie sujeta a múltiples quiebres. En ninguno de los casos se puede atribuir la dinámica a las intervenciones del banco central

Suggested Citation

  • Jorge Mario Uribe & Natalia Restrepo López, 2015. "Dinámica del tipo de cambio, quiebre estructural e intervenciones de política en Colombia," Revista Ecos de Economía, Universidad EAFIT, vol. 19(41), pages 24-44, December.
    • Handle: RePEc:col:000442:014936
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: http://publicaciones.eafit.edu.co/index.php/ecos-economia/article/view/3345
    Download Restriction: no
    ---><---

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Jushan Bai, 1997. "Estimation Of A Change Point In Multiple Regression Models," The Review of Economics and Statistics, MIT Press, vol. 79(4), pages 551-563, November.
    2. Jushan Bai & Pierre Perron, 1998. "Estimating and Testing Linear Models with Multiple Structural Changes," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 66(1), pages 47-78, January.
    3. Frenkel, Jacob A, 1976. " A Monetary Approach to the Exchange Rate: Doctrinal Aspects and Empirical Evidence," Scandinavian Journal of Economics, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 78(2), pages 200-224.
    4. Hansen, Bruce E, 1997. "Approximate Asymptotic P Values for Structural-Change Tests," Journal of Business & Economic Statistics, American Statistical Association, vol. 15(1), pages 60-67, January.
    5. Xavier Gabaix & Matteo Maggiori, 2015. "International Liquidity and Exchange Rate Dynamics," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, Oxford University Press, vol. 130(3), pages 1369-1420.
    6. Juan José Echavarría & Mauricio Villamizar & Diego Vásquez, 2010. "Impacto de las intervenciones cambiarias sobre el nivel y la volatilidad de la tasa de cambio en Colombia," Revista ESPE - Ensayos sobre Política Económica, Banco de la Republica de Colombia, vol. 28(62), pages 12-69, June.
    7. Andrews, Donald W K & Ploberger, Werner, 1994. "Optimal Tests When a Nuisance Parameter Is Present Only under the Alternative," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 62(6), pages 1383-1414, November.
    8. Jorge Toro & Juan Manuel Julio, 2005. "Efectividad De La Intervención Discrecional Del Banco De La República En El Mercado Cambiario," Borradores de Economia 2411, Banco de la Republica.
    9. Perron, Pierre & Zhu, Xiaokang, 2005. "Structural breaks with deterministic and stochastic trends," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 129(1-2), pages 65-119.
    10. Kwiatkowski, Denis & Phillips, Peter C. B. & Schmidt, Peter & Shin, Yongcheol, 1992. "Testing the null hypothesis of stationarity against the alternative of a unit root : How sure are we that economic time series have a unit root?," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 54(1-3), pages 159-178.
    11. Juan Esteban Carranza & Stefany Moreno, 2013. "Tamaño y estructura vertical de la cadena de producción industrial colombiana desde 1990," Borradores de Economia 751, Banco de la Republica de Colombia.
    12. David E. Rapach & Jack K. Strauss, 2008. "Structural breaks and GARCH models of exchange rate volatility," Journal of Applied Econometrics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 23(1), pages 65-90.
    13. Newey, Whitney & West, Kenneth, 2014. "A simple, positive semi-definite, heteroscedasticity and autocorrelation consistent covariance matrix," Applied Econometrics, Russian Presidential Academy of National Economy and Public Administration (RANEPA), vol. 33(1), pages 125-132.
    14. Juan Esteban Carranza & Stefany Moreno, 2013. "Tamaño y estructura vertical de la cadena de producción industrial colombiana desde 1990," Borradores de Economia 10416, Banco de la Republica.
    15. Powell, Andrew, 2014. "Global Recovery and Monetary Normalization: Escaping a Chronicle Foretold?," IDB Publications (Books), Inter-American Development Bank, number 6417.
    16. Andrews, Donald W K, 1993. "Tests for Parameter Instability and Structural Change with Unknown Change Point," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 61(4), pages 821-856, July.
    17. Frankel, Jeffrey A, 1979. "On the Mark: A Theory of Floating Exchange Rates Based on Real Interest Differentials," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 69(4), pages 610-622, September.
    18. Carlos Humberto Ortiz & José Ignacio Uribe & Harvy Vivas, 2009. "Transformación industrial, Autonomía tecnológica y Crecimiento Económico: Colombia 1925-2005," Archivos de Economía 5283, Departamento Nacional de Planeación.
    19. Lamoureux, Christopher G & Lastrapes, William D, 1990. "Persistence in Variance, Structural Change, and the GARCH Model," Journal of Business & Economic Statistics, American Statistical Association, vol. 8(2), pages 225-234, April.
    20. Hamilton, James D. & Susmel, Raul, 1994. "Autoregressive conditional heteroskedasticity and changes in regime," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 64(1-2), pages 307-333.
    21. Jushan Bai & Pierre Perron, 2003. "Computation and analysis of multiple structural change models," Journal of Applied Econometrics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 18(1), pages 1-22.
    22. Kim, Dukpa & Perron, Pierre, 2009. "Unit root tests allowing for a break in the trend function at an unknown time under both the null and alternative hypotheses," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 148(1), pages 1-13, January.
    23. Meese, Richard A. & Rogoff, Kenneth, 1983. "Empirical exchange rate models of the seventies : Do they fit out of sample?," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 14(1-2), pages 3-24, February.
    24. Herman Kamil, 2008. "Is Central Bank Intervention Effective Under Inflation Targeting Regimes? The Case of Colombia," IMF Working Papers 2008/088, International Monetary Fund.
    25. Alicia Garcia-Herrero & Enestor Dos Santos & Pablo Urbiola & Marcos Dal Bianco & Fernando Soto & Mauricio Hernandez & Rosario Sanchez & Arnulfo Rodriguez, 2014. "Competitiveness in the Latin American manufacturing sector: trends and determinants," Working Papers 1411, BBVA Bank, Economic Research Department.
    26. James G. MacKinnon, 2010. "Critical Values For Cointegration Tests," Working Paper 1227, Economics Department, Queen's University.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Errea, Damián, 2012. "Tipo de cambio real multilateral en Argentina (1994-2007): un análisis sobre sus determinantes; su valor de equilibrio y su vinculación con el flujo neto de capitales," Nülan. Deposited Documents 1654, Universidad Nacional de Mar del Plata, Facultad de Ciencias Económicas y Sociales, Centro de Documentación.
    2. Gómez-Puig, Marta & Sosvilla-Rivero, Simón, 2014. "Causality and contagion in EMU sovereign debt markets," International Review of Economics & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 33(C), pages 12-27.
    3. , & Stein, Tobias, 2021. "Equity premium predictability over the business cycle," CEPR Discussion Papers 16357, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
    4. Seong Yeon Chang & Pierre Perron, 2016. "Inference on a Structural Break in Trend with Fractionally Integrated Errors," Journal of Time Series Analysis, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 37(4), pages 555-574, July.
    5. Travaglini, Guido, 2007. "The U.S. Dynamic Taylor Rule With Multiple Breaks, 1984-2001," MPRA Paper 3419, University Library of Munich, Germany, revised 15 Jun 2007.
    6. Benati, Luca, 2007. "Drift and breaks in labor productivity," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 31(8), pages 2847-2877, August.
    7. Rossi, Barbara, 2013. "Advances in Forecasting under Instability," Handbook of Economic Forecasting, in: G. Elliott & C. Granger & A. Timmermann (ed.), Handbook of Economic Forecasting, edition 1, volume 2, chapter 0, pages 1203-1324, Elsevier.
    8. Yuan, Chunming, 2011. "The exchange rate and macroeconomic determinants: Time-varying transitional dynamics," The North American Journal of Economics and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 22(2), pages 197-220, August.
    9. Hervé Le Bihan, 2004. "Tests de ruptures : une application au PIB tendanciel français," Économie et Prévision, Programme National Persée, vol. 163(2), pages 133-154.
    10. Alessandro Casini & Pierre Perron, 2018. "Structural Breaks in Time Series," Boston University - Department of Economics - Working Papers Series WP2019-02, Boston University - Department of Economics.
    11. Kejriwal, Mohitosh & Perron, Pierre, 2010. "Testing for Multiple Structural Changes in Cointegrated Regression Models," Journal of Business & Economic Statistics, American Statistical Association, vol. 28(4), pages 503-522.
    12. Mohitosh Kejriwal & Claude Lopez, 2013. "Unit Roots, Level Shifts, and Trend Breaks in Per Capita Output: A Robust Evaluation," Econometric Reviews, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 32(8), pages 892-927, November.
    13. Kejriwal, Mohitosh & Perron, Pierre, 2008. "The limit distribution of the estimates in cointegrated regression models with multiple structural changes," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 146(1), pages 59-73, September.
    14. Nuno Sobreira & Luis C. Nunes & Paulo M. M. Rodrigues, 2014. "Characterizing Economic Growth Paths Based On New Structural Change Tests," Economic Inquiry, Western Economic Association International, vol. 52(2), pages 845-861, April.
    15. Chevallier, Julien, 2011. "Evaluating the carbon-macroeconomy relationship: Evidence from threshold vector error-correction and Markov-switching VAR models," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 28(6), pages 2634-2656.
    16. Czech, Katarzyna, 2016. "Structural Changes in Wheat Market," Problems of World Agriculture / Problemy Rolnictwa Światowego, Warsaw University of Life Sciences, vol. 16(31), pages 1-7, December.
    17. Clark, Todd E. & McCracken, Michael W., 2006. "The Predictive Content of the Output Gap for Inflation: Resolving In-Sample and Out-of-Sample Evidence," Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 38(5), pages 1127-1148, August.
    18. Samih Antoine Azar & Angelic Salha, 2017. "The Bias in the Long Run Relation between the Prices of BRENT and West Texas Intermediate Crude Oils," International Journal of Energy Economics and Policy, Econjournals, vol. 7(1), pages 44-54.
    19. Frijns, Bart & Indriawan, Ivan & Otsubo, Yoichi & Tourani-Rad, Alireza, 2019. "The cost of trading during Federal Funds Rate announcements: Evidence from cross-listed stocks," International Review of Economics & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 60(C), pages 176-187.
    20. Vicente Esteve, 2004. "Política fiscal y productividad del trabajo en la economía española: un análisis de series temporales," Revista de Analisis Economico – Economic Analysis Review, Universidad Alberto Hurtado/School of Economics and Business, vol. 19(1), pages 3-29, June.

    More about this item

    Keywords

    Caminata aleatoria; martingala; múltiples quiebres; política cambiaria Colombia; quiebre estructural;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • C22 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Single Equation Models; Single Variables - - - Time-Series Models; Dynamic Quantile Regressions; Dynamic Treatment Effect Models; Diffusion Processes
    • G15 - Financial Economics - - General Financial Markets - - - International Financial Markets
    • G28 - Financial Economics - - Financial Institutions and Services - - - Government Policy and Regulation

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:col:000442:014936. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Valor Público EAFIT - Centro de estudios e incidencia (email available below). General contact details of provider: https://edirc.repec.org/data/deafico.html .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.