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Structural breaks and GARCH models of exchange rate volatility

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  • David E. Rapach

    (Department of Economics, Saint Louis University, Saint Louis, Missouri, USA)

  • Jack K. Strauss

    (Department of Economics, Saint Louis University, Saint Louis, Missouri, USA)

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    Abstract

    We investigate the empirical relevance of structural breaks for GARCH models of exchange rate volatility using both in-sample and out-of-sample tests. We find significant evidence of structural breaks in the unconditional variance of seven of eight US dollar exchange rate return series over the 1980-2005 period-implying unstable GARCH processes for these exchange rates-and GARCH(1,1) parameter estimates often vary substantially across the subsamples defined by the structural breaks. We also find that it almost always pays to allow for structural breaks when forecasting exchange rate return volatility in real time. Combining forecasts from different models that accommodate structural breaks in volatility in various ways appears to offer a reliable method for improving volatility forecast accuracy given the uncertainty surrounding the timing and size of the structural breaks. Copyright © 2008 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.

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    File URL: http://hdl.handle.net/10.1002/jae.976
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    File URL: http://qed.econ.queensu.ca:80/jae/2008-v23.1/
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    Bibliographic Info

    Article provided by John Wiley & Sons, Ltd. in its journal Journal of Applied Econometrics.

    Volume (Year): 23 (2008)
    Issue (Month): 1 ()
    Pages: 65-90
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    Handle: RePEc:jae:japmet:v:23:y:2008:i:1:p:65-90

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    References

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    Cited by:
    1. Fang, WenShwo & Miller, Stephen M., 2009. "Modeling the volatility of real GDP growth: The case of Japan revisited," Japan and the World Economy, Elsevier, vol. 21(3), pages 312-324, August.
    2. Lanne, Markku & Ahoniemi, Katja, 2008. "Implied Volatility with Time-Varying Regime Probabilities," MPRA Paper 23721, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    3. Julien Chevallier & Yannick Le Pen & Benoît Sévi, 2009. "Options introduction and volatility in the EU ETS," EconomiX Working Papers 2009-33, University of Paris West - Nanterre la Défense, EconomiX.
    4. Broto, Carmen, 2011. "Inflation targeting in Latin America: Empirical analysis using GARCH models," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 28(3), pages 1424-1434, May.

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