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Nonstationarities in Stock Returns

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Author Info
Cătălin Stărică (Chalmers University of Technology and Göteborg University)
Clive Granger (University of California, San Diego)

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Abstract

The paper outlines a methodology for analyzing daily stock returns that relinquishes the assumption of global stationarity. Giving up this common working hypothesis reflects our belief that fundamental features of the financial markets are continuously and significantly changing. Our approach approximates the nonstationary data locally by stationary models. The methodology is applied to the S&P 500 series of returns covering a period of over seventy years of market activity. We find most of the dynamics of this time series to be concentrated in shifts of the unconditional variance. The forecasts based on our nonstationary unconditional modeling were found to be superior to those obtained in a stationary long-memory framework and to those based on a stationary Garch(1, 1) data-generating process. Copyright (c) 2005 President and Fellows of Harvard College and the Massachusetts Institute of Technology.

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File URL: http://www.mitpressjournals.org/doi/pdfplus/10.1162/0034653054638274
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Publisher Info
Article provided by MIT Press in its journal Review of Economics and Statistics.

Volume (Year): 87 (2005)
Issue (Month): 3 (09)
Pages: 503-522
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Handle: RePEc:tpr:restat:v:87:y:2005:i:3:p:503-522

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Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.:
  1. Clive W.J. Granger & Namwon Hyung, 1999. "Occasional Structural Breaks and Long Memory," University of California at San Diego, Economics Working Paper Series 99-14, Department of Economics, UC San Diego. [Downloadable!]
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  2. Diebold, Francis X. & Inoue, Atsushi, 2001. "Long memory and regime switching," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 105(1), pages 131-159, November. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  3. Lamoureux, Christopher G & Lastrapes, William D, 1990. "Persistence in Variance, Structural Change, and the GARCH Model," Journal of Business & Economic Statistics, American Statistical Association, vol. 8(2), pages 225-34, April.
  4. Lobato, Ignacio N & Savin, N E, 1998. "Real and Spurious Long-Memory Properties of Stock-Market Data," Journal of Business & Economic Statistics, American Statistical Association, vol. 16(3), pages 261-68, July.
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  5. Simonato, Jean-Guy, 1992. "Estimation of GARCH process in the presence of structural change," Economics Letters, Elsevier, vol. 40(2), pages 155-158, October. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  6. West, Kenneth D, 1996. "Asymptotic Inference about Predictive Ability," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 64(5), pages 1067-84, September. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  7. Hamilton, James D. & Susmel, Raul, 1994. "Autoregressive conditional heteroskedasticity and changes in regime," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 64(1-2), pages 307-333. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  8. Diebold, Francis X & Mariano, Roberto S, 1995. "Comparing Predictive Accuracy," Journal of Business & Economic Statistics, American Statistical Association, vol. 13(3), pages 253-63, July.
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  9. Francis Dieobold, 1986. "Modeling The persistence Of Conditional Variances: A Comment," Econometric Reviews, Taylor and Francis Journals, vol. 5(1), pages 51-56. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  10. Granger, Clive W. J. & Terasvirta, Timo, 1999. "A simple nonlinear time series model with misleading linear properties," Economics Letters, Elsevier, vol. 62(2), pages 161-165, February. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  11. Lobato, Ignacio N & Savin, N E, 1998. "Real and Spurious Long-Memory Properties of Stock-Market Data: Reply," Journal of Business & Economic Statistics, American Statistical Association, vol. 16(3), pages 280-83, July.
  12. Catalin Starica & Stefano Herzel & Tomas Nord, 2005. "Why does the GARCH(1,1) model fail to provide sensible longer- horizon volatility forecasts?," Econometrics 0508003, EconWPA. [Downloadable!]
  13. Stock, James H & Watson, Mark W, 1996. "Evidence on Structural Instability in Macroeconomic Time Series Relations," Journal of Business & Economic Statistics, American Statistical Association, vol. 14(1), pages 11-30, January.
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  14. Hidalgo, Javier & Robinson, Peter M., 1996. "Testing for structural change in a long-memory environment," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 70(1), pages 159-174, January. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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(explanations, Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.)

  1. Dominique Guegan, 2005. "How can we define the concept of long memory ? An econometric survey," Post-Print halshs-00179343_v1, HAL. [Downloadable!]
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  2. Chun Liu & John M Maheu, 2007. "Are there Structural Breaks in Realized Volatility?," Working Papers tecipa-304, University of Toronto, Department of Economics. [Downloadable!]
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  3. David E. Rapach & Jack K. Strauss, 2008. "Structural breaks and GARCH models of exchange rate volatility," Journal of Applied Econometrics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 23(1), pages 65-90. [Downloadable!]
  4. Markus Haas, 2007. "Volatility Components and Long Memory-Effects Revisited," Studies in Nonlinear Dynamics & Econometrics, Berkeley Electronic Press, vol. 11(2), pages 1411-1411. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  5. Zhongjun Qu & Pierre Perron, 2008. "A Stochastic Volatility Model with Random Level Shifts: Theory and Applications to S&P 500 and NASDAQ Return Indices," Boston University - Department of Economics - Working Papers Series wp2008-007, Boston University - Department of Economics. [Downloadable!]
  6. Ke-Li Xu & Peter C.B. Phillips, 2006. "Adaptive Estimation of Autoregressive Models with Time-Varying Variances," Cowles Foundation Discussion Papers 1585R, Cowles Foundation, Yale University, revised Nov 2006. [Downloadable!]
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  7. Jörg Polzehl & Vladimir Spokoiny, 2006. "Varying coefficient GARCH versus local constant volatility modeling. Comparison of the predictive power," SFB 649 Discussion Papers SFB649DP2006-033, Sonderforschungsbereich 649, Humboldt University, Berlin, Germany. [Downloadable!]
  8. C. Stéphan & S. Skander, 2003. "Statistical analysis of financial time series under the assuption of local stationarity," THEMA Working Papers 2003-23, THEMA (THéorie Economique, Modélisation et Applications), Université de Cergy-Pontoise. [Downloadable!]
  9. Sancetta, A. & Nikanrova, A., 2005. "Forecasting and Prequential Validation for Time Varying Meta-Elliptical Distributions with a Study of Commodity Futures Prices," Cambridge Working Papers in Economics 0516, Faculty of Economics, University of Cambridge. [Downloadable!]
  10. Catalin Starica & Stefano Herzel & Tomas Nord, 2005. "Why does the GARCH(1,1) model fail to provide sensible longer- horizon volatility forecasts?," Econometrics 0508003, EconWPA. [Downloadable!]
  11. Zhongfang He & John M Maheu, 2008. "Real Time Detection of Structural Breaks in GARCH Models," Working Papers tecipa-336, University of Toronto, Department of Economics. [Downloadable!]
    Other versions:
  12. Jörg Polzehl & Vladimir Spokoiny & Catalin Starica, 2006. "When did the 2001 recession really start?," SFB 649 Discussion Papers SFB649DP2006-032, Sonderforschungsbereich 649, Humboldt University, Berlin, Germany. [Downloadable!]
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