Advanced Search
MyIDEAS: Login to save this paper or follow this series

Breaks and Persistency: Macroeconomic Causes of Stock Market Volatility

Contents:

Author Info

  • Andrea Beltratti
  • Claudio Morana

    ()
    (SEMEQ Department - Faculty of Economics - University of Eastern Piedmont)

Abstract

In the paper we study the relationship between macroeconomic and stock market volatility, using S&P500 data for the period 1970- 2001. We find evidence of both long memory and structural change in volatility and a twofold linkage between stock market and macroeconomic volatility. In terms of the break processes, our results show that there are frequent cases where the break in the volatility of stock returns is associated within few months with breaks in the volatility of the Federal funds rate and M1 growth. After accounting for the structural breaks, there remain interesting relations among the breakfree series. Fractional cointegration analysis points to the existence of three long-run relationships linking stock market, money growth, inflation, the Federal funds rate, and output growth volatility, and two common long memory factors mainly associated with output and inflation volatility. We find that stock market volatility dynamics, both persistent and non persistent, are associated in a causal way with macroeoconomic volatility shocks, particularly to output growth volatility. The stock market idiosyncratic shock, which accounts for the bulk of the overall dynamics, also affects macroeconomic volatility. Yet the evidence suggests that the causality direction is stronger from macroeconomic to stock market volatility than the other way around.

Download Info

If you experience problems downloading a file, check if you have the proper application to view it first. In case of further problems read the IDEAS help page. Note that these files are not on the IDEAS site. Please be patient as the files may be large.
File URL: http://semeq.unipmn.it/files/semeq20.pdf
Our checks indicate that this address may not be valid because: 404 Not Found. If this is indeed the case, please notify ()
Download Restriction: no

Bibliographic Info

Paper provided by SEMEQ Department - Faculty of Economics - University of Eastern Piedmont in its series Working Papers with number 20.

as in new window
Length: 36 pages
Date of creation: May 2004
Date of revision:
Handle: RePEc:upo:upopwp:20

Contact details of provider:
Postal: Via Perrone 18, 28100 Novara
Phone: 39.0321375310
Fax: 39.0321375305
Email:
Web page: http://semeq.unipmn.it/
More information through EDIRC

Related research

Keywords:

Other versions of this item:

Find related papers by JEL classification:

This paper has been announced in the following NEP Reports:

References

References listed on IDEAS
Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.:
as in new window
  1. G. William Schwert, 1990. "Why Does Stock Market Volatility Change Over Time?," NBER Working Papers 2798, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  2. Warne, A., 1993. "A Common Trends Model: Identification, Estimation and Inference," Papers 555, Stockholm - International Economic Studies.
  3. Baillie, Richard T. & Geoffrey Booth, G. & Tse, Yiuman & Zabotina, Tatyana, 2002. "Price discovery and common factor models," Journal of Financial Markets, Elsevier, vol. 5(3), pages 309-321, July.
  4. Robert F. Engle & Sharon Kozicki, 1990. "Testing For Common Features," NBER Technical Working Papers 0091, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  5. Morana Claudio, 2002. "Common Persistent Factors in Inflation and Excess Nominal Money Growth and a New Measure of Core Inflation," Studies in Nonlinear Dynamics & Econometrics, De Gruyter, vol. 6(3), pages 1-40, November.
  6. Peter M Robinson & Yoshihiro Yajima, 2001. "Determination of Cointegrating Rank in Fractional Systems," STICERD - Econometrics Paper Series /2001/423, Suntory and Toyota International Centres for Economics and Related Disciplines, LSE.
  7. Sun, Yixiao & Phillips, Peter C. B., 2003. "Nonlinear log-periodogram regression for perturbed fractional processes," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 115(2), pages 355-389, August.
  8. John Y. Campbell, 2001. "Have Individual Stocks Become More Volatile? An Empirical Exploration of Idiosyncratic Risk," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 56(1), pages 1-43, 02.
  9. Granger, C. W. J., 1980. "Long memory relationships and the aggregation of dynamic models," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 14(2), pages 227-238, October.
  10. Francis X. Diebold & Atsushi Inoue, 2000. "Long Memory and Regime Switching," NBER Technical Working Papers 0264, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  11. So, Mike K P & Lam, K & Li, W K, 1998. "A Stochastic Volatility Model with Markov Switching," Journal of Business & Economic Statistics, American Statistical Association, vol. 16(2), pages 244-53, April.
  12. Lobato, I.N. & Savin, N.E., 1996. "Real and Spurious Long Memory Properties of Stock Market Data," Working Papers 96-07, University of Iowa, Department of Economics.
  13. Charles Engel & Anthony P. Rodrigues, 1987. "Tests of International CAPM with Time-Varying Covariances," NBER Working Papers 2303, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  14. James H. Stock & Mark W. Watson, 2002. "Has the Business Cycle Changed and Why?," NBER Working Papers 9127, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  15. Sadorsky, Perry, 2003. "The macroeconomic determinants of technology stock price volatility," Review of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 12(2), pages 191-205.
  16. G. William Schwert, 1990. "Business Cycles, Financial Crises, and Stock Volatility," NBER Working Papers 2957, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  17. Morana, Claudio & Beltratti, Andrea, 2002. "The effects of the introduction of the euro on the volatility of European stock markets," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 26(10), pages 2047-2064, October.
  18. Ding, Zhuanxin & Granger, Clive W. J. & Engle, Robert F., 1993. "A long memory property of stock market returns and a new model," Journal of Empirical Finance, Elsevier, vol. 1(1), pages 83-106, June.
  19. Andersen T. G & Bollerslev T. & Diebold F. X & Labys P., 2001. "The Distribution of Realized Exchange Rate Volatility," Journal of the American Statistical Association, American Statistical Association, vol. 96, pages 42-55, March.
  20. Kasa, Kenneth, 1992. "Common stochastic trends in international stock markets," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 29(1), pages 95-124, February.
  21. Clarida, Richard & Galí, Jordi & Gertler, Mark, 1998. "Monetary Policy Rules and Macroeconomic Stability: Evidence and Some Theory," CEPR Discussion Papers 1908, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
  22. Engle, Robert F & Kozicki, Sharon, 1993. "Testing for Common Features: Reply," Journal of Business & Economic Statistics, American Statistical Association, vol. 11(4), pages 393-95, October.
  23. Baillie, Richard T. & Bollerslev, Tim & Mikkelsen, Hans Ole, 1996. "Fractionally integrated generalized autoregressive conditional heteroskedasticity," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 74(1), pages 3-30, September.
  24. Andersen, Torben G & Bollerslev, Tim, 1997. " Heterogeneous Information Arrivals and Return Volatility Dynamics: Uncovering the Long-Run in High Frequency Returns," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 52(3), pages 975-1005, July.
  25. Flavin, Thomas & Wickens, Michael R, 2002. "Macroeconomic Influences on Optimal Asset Allocation," CEPR Discussion Papers 3144, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
  26. Bollerslev, Tim & Ole Mikkelsen, Hans, 1996. "Modeling and pricing long memory in stock market volatility," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 73(1), pages 151-184, July.
  27. Clive W.J. Granger & Namwon Hyung, 2013. "Occasional Structural Breaks and Long Memory," Annals of Economics and Finance, Society for AEF, vol. 14(2), pages 739-764, November.
  28. Lobato, Ignacio N & Savin, N E, 1998. "Real and Spurious Long-Memory Properties of Stock-Market Data: Reply," Journal of Business & Economic Statistics, American Statistical Association, vol. 16(3), pages 280-83, July.
  29. Morana, Claudio & Beltratti, Andrea, 2004. "Structural change and long-range dependence in volatility of exchange rates: either, neither or both?," Journal of Empirical Finance, Elsevier, vol. 11(5), pages 629-658, December.
  30. Claudio Morana, 2004. "Some frequency domain properties of fractionally cointegrated processes," Applied Economics Letters, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 11(14), pages 891-894.
  31. Andrew Ang & Geert Bekaert, 1998. "Regime Switches in Interest Rates," NBER Working Papers 6508, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  32. Whitelaw, Robert F, 1994. " Time Variations and Covariations in the Expectation and Volatility of Stock Market Returns," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 49(2), pages 515-41, June.
  33. Hamilton, James D. & Susmel, Raul, 1994. "Autoregressive conditional heteroskedasticity and changes in regime," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 64(1-2), pages 307-333.
  34. Hamilton, James D & Gang, Lin, 1996. "Stock Market Volatility and the Business Cycle," Journal of Applied Econometrics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 11(5), pages 573-93, Sept.-Oct.
  35. Kim, Chang-Jin & Kim, Myung-Jig, 1996. "Transient Fads and the Crash of '87," Journal of Applied Econometrics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 11(1), pages 41-58, Jan.-Feb..
  36. Claudio Morana, 2004. "Frequency domain principal components estimation of fractionally cointegrated processes," Applied Economics Letters, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 11(13), pages 837-842.
Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

Citations

Citations are extracted by the CitEc Project, subscribe to its RSS feed for this item.
as in new window

Cited by:
This item has more than 25 citations. To prevent cluttering this page, these citations are listed on a separate page.

Lists

This item is not listed on Wikipedia, on a reading list or among the top items on IDEAS.

Statistics

Access and download statistics

Corrections

When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:upo:upopwp:20. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: ().

If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

If references are entirely missing, you can add them using this form.

If the full references list an item that is present in RePEc, but the system did not link to it, you can help with this form.

If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.