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Transient Fads and the Crash of '87

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Author Info
Kim, Chang-Jin
Kim, Myung-Jig

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Abstract

Using a fad model with Markov-switching heteroscedasticity in both the fundamental and fad components (UC-MS model), this paper examines the possibility that the 1987 stock market crash was an example of a short-lived fad. While we usually think of fads as speculative bubbles, what the UC-MS model seems to be picking up is unwarranted pessimism which the market exhibited with the OPEC oil shock and the '87 crash. Furthermore, the conditional variance implied by the UC-MS model captures most of the dynamics in the GARCH specification of stock return volatility. Yet unlike the GARCH measure of volatility, the UC-MS measure of volatility is consistent with volatility reverting to its normal level very quickly after the crash. Copyright 1996 by John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.

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Article provided by John Wiley & Sons, Ltd. in its journal Journal of Applied Econometrics.

Volume (Year): 11 (1996)
Issue (Month): 1 (Jan.-Feb.)
Pages: 41-58
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Handle: RePEc:jae:japmet:v:11:y:1996:i:1:p:41-58

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  1. Charles Engel & Chang-Jin Kim, 1996. "The Long-Run U.S./U.K. Real Exchange Rate," NBER Working Papers 5777, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  2. Christian Jochum, 2001. "Is the covariance of international stock market returns regime dependent?," European Journal of Finance, Taylor and Francis Journals, vol. 7(3), pages 247-268, September. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  3. Charles Nelson & Jeremy Piger & Eric Zivot, 1999. "Unit Root Tests in the Presence of Markov Regime-Switching," Discussion Papers in Economics at the University of Washington 0040, Department of Economics at the University of Washington. [Downloadable!]
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  4. Alistair Mees & Berndt Pilgram, 2000. "Non-Linear Markov Modelling Using Canonical Variate Analysis: Forecasting Exchange Rate Volatility," Econometric Society World Congress 2000 Contributed Papers 1162, Econometric Society. [Downloadable!]
  5. Adlai Fisher, 1999. "Multivariate Stock Returns Around Extreme Events: A Reassessment of Economic Fundamentals and the 1987 Market Crash," New York University, Leonard N. Stern School Finance Department Working Paper Seires 99-071, New York University, Leonard N. Stern School of Business-. [Downloadable!]
  6. Andrea Beltratti & Claudio Morana, 2004. "Breaks and Persistency: Macroeconomic Causes of Stock Market Volatility," Working Papers 20, SEMEQ Department - Faculty of Economics - University of Eastern Piedmont. [Downloadable!]
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