Business cycles, financial crises, and stock volatility
AbstractThis paper shows that stock volatility increases during recessions and financial crises from 1834-1987. The evidence reinforces the notion that stock prices are an important business cycle indicator. Using two different statistical models for stock volatility, I show that volatility increases after major financial crises. Moreover. stock volatility decreases and stock prices rise before the Fed increases margin requirements. Thus, there is little reason to believe that public policies can control stock volatility. The evidence supports the observation by Black  that stock volatility increases after stock prices fall.
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Bibliographic InfoArticle provided by Elsevier in its journal Carnegie-Rochester Conference Series on Public Policy.
Volume (Year): 31 (1989)
Issue (Month): 1 (January)
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Web page: http://www.elsevier.com/locate/jme
Other versions of this item:
- Schwert, G.W., 1988. "Business Cycles, Financial Crises And Stock Volatility," Papers 88-06, Rochester, Business - General.
- G. William Schwert, 1990. "Business Cycles, Financial Crises, and Stock Volatility," NBER Working Papers 2957, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
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- Fama, Eugene F. & French, Kenneth R., 1988. "Dividend yields and expected stock returns," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 22(1), pages 3-25, October.
- Neftci, Salih N, 1984. "Are Economic Time Series Asymmetric over the Business Cycle?," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 92(2), pages 307-28, April.
- Gorton, Gary, 1985. "Bank suspension of convertibility," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 15(2), pages 177-193, March.
- Plosser, Charles I. & Schwert*, G. William, 1978. "Money, income, and sunspots: Measuring economic relationships and the effects of differencing," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 4(4), pages 637-660, November.
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