International Liquidity and Exchange Rate Dynamics
AbstractWe provide a theory of the determination of exchange rates based on capital flows in imperfect financial markets. Capital flows drive exchange rates by altering the balance sheets of financiers that bear the risks resulting from international imbalances in the demand for financial assets. Such alterations to their balance sheets cause financiers to change their required compensation for holding currency risk, thus impacting both the level and volatility of exchange rates. Our theory of exchange rate determination in imperfect financial markets not only rationalizes the empirical disconnect between exchange rates and traditional macroeconomic fundamentals, but also has real consequences for output and risk sharing. Exchange rates are sensitive to imbalances in financial markets and seldom perform the shock absorption role that is central to traditional theoretical macroeconomic analysis. We derive conditions under which heterodox government financial policies, such as currency interventions and taxation of capital flows, can be welfare improving. Our framework is flexible; it accommodates a number of important modeling features within an imperfect financial market model, such as non-tradables, production, money, sticky prices or wages, various forms of international pricing-to-market, and unemployment.
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Bibliographic InfoPaper provided by National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc in its series NBER Working Papers with number 19854.
Date of creation: Jan 2014
Date of revision:
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Other versions of this item:
- Xavier Gabaix & Matteo Maggiori, 2014. "International Liquidity and Exchange Rate Dynamics," 2014 Meeting Papers, Society for Economic Dynamics 74, Society for Economic Dynamics.
- Gabaix, Xavier & Maggiori, Matteo, 2014. "International Liquidity and Exchange Rate Dynamics," CEPR Discussion Papers, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers 9842, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
- E2 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Consumption, Saving, Production, Employment, and Investment
- E42 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Money and Interest Rates - - - Monetary Sytsems; Standards; Regimes; Government and the Monetary System
- E44 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Money and Interest Rates - - - Financial Markets and the Macroeconomy
- F31 - International Economics - - International Finance - - - Foreign Exchange
- F32 - International Economics - - International Finance - - - Current Account Adjustment; Short-term Capital Movements
- F41 - International Economics - - Macroeconomic Aspects of International Trade and Finance - - - Open Economy Macroeconomics
- F42 - International Economics - - Macroeconomic Aspects of International Trade and Finance - - - International Policy Coordination and Transmission
- G11 - Financial Economics - - General Financial Markets - - - Portfolio Choice; Investment Decisions
- G15 - Financial Economics - - General Financial Markets - - - International Financial Markets
- G20 - Financial Economics - - Financial Institutions and Services - - - General
This paper has been announced in the following NEP Reports:
- NEP-ALL-2014-02-02 (All new papers)
- NEP-CBA-2014-02-02 (Central Banking)
- NEP-MAC-2014-02-02 (Macroeconomics)
- NEP-MON-2014-02-02 (Monetary Economics)
- NEP-OPM-2014-02-02 (Open Economy Macroeconomics)
Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.:
- Lettau, Martin & Maggiori, Matteo & Weber, Michael, 2013. "Conditional Risk Premia in Currency Markets and Other Asset Classes," CEPR Discussion Papers, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers 9484, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
- Blanchard, Olivier Jean & Kahn, Charles M, 1980. "The Solution of Linear Difference Models under Rational Expectations," Econometrica, Econometric Society, Econometric Society, vol. 48(5), pages 1305-11, July.
- Martin Lettau & Matteo Maggiori & Michael Weber, 2013. "Conditional Risk Premia in Currency Markets and Other Asset Classes," NBER Working Papers 18844, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
- Huang, Huichou & MacDonald, Ronald & Zhao, Yang, 2012. "Global Currency Misalignments, Crash Sensitivity, and Downside Insurance Costs," MPRA Paper 53745, University Library of Munich, Germany, revised 18 Nov 2013.
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