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Válaszút előtt a makroökonómia?
[Does macroeconomics face a dilemma?]

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  • Mellár, Tamás
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    Abstract

    A 2008-ban kirobbant pénzügyi válság ráirányította a figyelmet a főáramú makroökonómiára, amely a válság előrejelzésében és magyarázatában igen gyenge teljesítményről tett tanúbizonyságot. Az elmúlt másfél-két évtizedben az újklasszikus és az újkeynesi iskola fokozatosan közeledett egymáshoz, aminek eredményeként létrejött az új neoklasszikus szintézis. A szintézis alapmodelljei, a dinamikus, sztochasztikus, általános egyensúlyi (DSGE) modellek és az újkeynesi monetáris modell a makromodellezés meghatározó szereplőivé váltak. Mára azonban kiderült, hogy ezek a modellek egyre kevésbé alkalmasak rövid távú előrejelzésekre és gazdaságpolitikai elemzésekre. Ezért a makroökonómia válaszút elé került: vagy továbbépíti a DSGE modelleket, vagy pedig új modelleket és ezzel új fejlődési utakat keres. Journal of Economic Literature (JEL) kód: E20, E32, E44, E52, E60.

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    Bibliographic Info

    Article provided by Közgazdasági Szemle Alapítvány (Economic Review Foundation) in its journal Közgazdasági Szemle (Economic Review - monthly of the Hungarian Academy of Sciences).

    Volume (Year): LVII (2010)
    Issue (Month): 7 ()
    Pages: 591-611

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    Handle: RePEc:ksa:szemle:1180

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    Cited by:
    1. József Móczár, 2010. "Anatomy and Lessons of the Global Financial Crisis," Public Finance Quarterly, State Audit Office of Hungary, vol. 55(4), pages 753-775.

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