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An estimated open-economy model for the EURO area

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  • Marco Ratto
  • Werner Roeger

Abstract

We estimate a small open economy DSGE model for the euro area. The household sector optimises an intertemporal utility function with habit persistence. Households decide about asset accumulation, consumption and sets wages in a monopolistically competitive labour market. Households trade bonds internationally and there is a risk premium determined by the degree of foreign indebtedness. Firms are owned by domestic households. Consistent with the household objective function they determine labour demand, capacity, investment and they set prices in a monopolistically competitive goods market by maximising the market value of the corporate sector. Apart from technological constraints, decisions are subject to convex adjustment costs. Monetary policy is modelled via a Taylor rule. A Bayesian estimation approach is applied, using the Dynare code, by Michel Juillard, via the log-linearisation of the model around the steady state, solution of the forward looking log-linear model and computation of the likelihood via Kalman filter. After estimating the posterior mode via standard optimisation routines, the posterior distribution of model parameters is estimated with a Metropolis Markov Chain Monte Carlo approach. Unobserved components are also derived, such as technology, target inflation, capital utilisation. A full Bayesian impulse response analysis is then performed, comprising a detailed sensitivity analysis of the main dynamical features of the model simulations versus changes in model parameters.

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Bibliographic Info

Paper provided by Society for Computational Economics in its series Computing in Economics and Finance 2005 with number 84.

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Date of creation: 11 Nov 2005
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Handle: RePEc:sce:scecf5:84

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References

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  1. Lawrence J. Christiano & Martin Eichenbaum & Charles Evans, 2001. "Nominal Rigidities and the Dynamic Effects of a Shock to Monetary Policy," NBER Working Papers 8403, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  2. Alberto Alesina & Silvia Ardagna & Roberto Perotti & Fabio Schiantarelli, 1999. "Fiscal Policy, Profits, and Investment," NBER Working Papers 7207, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  3. Paul De Grauwe & Cláudia Costa Storti, 2004. "The Effects of Monetary Policy: A Meta-Analysis," CESifo Working Paper Series 1224, CESifo Group Munich.
  4. Frank Smets & Raf Wouters, 2002. "An estimated dynamic stochastic general equilibrium model of the euro area," Working Paper Research 35, National Bank of Belgium.
  5. Frank Schorfheide, 2000. "Loss function-based evaluation of DSGE models," Journal of Applied Econometrics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 15(6), pages 645-670.
  6. repec:hrv:faseco:3353756 is not listed on IDEAS
  7. Shi, Shouyong & Wen, Quan, 1999. "Labor market search and the dynamic effects of taxes and subsidies," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 43(2), pages 457-495, April.
  8. Blanchard, Olivier Jean & Kahn, Charles M, 1980. "The Solution of Linear Difference Models under Rational Expectations," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 48(5), pages 1305-11, July.
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Cited by:
  1. Fritz Breuss & Katrin Rabitsch, 2009. "An estimated two-country DSGE model of Austria and the Euro Area," Empirica, Springer, vol. 36(1), pages 123-158, February.
  2. Dybczak, Kamil & Melecky, Martin, 2012. "EU Fiscal Stance Vulnerability: Are the Old Members the Gold Members?," MPRA Paper 42837, University Library of Munich, Germany.
  3. Hjelm, Göran & Jönsson, Kristian, 2010. "In Search of a Method for Measuring the Output Gap of the Swedish Economy," Working Paper 115, National Institute of Economic Research.
  4. Nora Traum & Shu-Chun Yang, 2010. "When Does Government Debt Crowd Out Investment?," Caepr Working Papers 2010-006, Center for Applied Economics and Policy Research, Economics Department, Indiana University Bloomington.
  5. Marianna Riggi & Massimiliano Tancioni, 2008. "Nominal v. Real Wage Rigidities in New Keynesian Models with Hiring Costs," Working Papers 107, University of Rome La Sapienza, Department of Public Economics.
  6. Alfonso Arpaia & Werner Roeger & Janos Varga & Jan in 't Veld & Alexandr Hobza & Isabel Grilo & Peter Wobst, 2007. "Quantitative assessment of Structural Reforms: Modelling the Lisbon Strategy," European Economy - Economic Papers 282, Directorate General Economic and Monetary Affairs (DG ECFIN), European Commission.
  7. Evren Caglar & Jagjit S. Chadha & Katsuyuki Shibayama, 2011. "Bayesian Estimation of DSGE models: Is the Workhorse Model Identified?," Studies in Economics 1125, Department of Economics, University of Kent.
  8. Dybczak, Kamil & Melecky, Martin, 2011. "Macroeconomic Shocks and the Fiscal Stance within the EU: A Panel Regression Analysis," MPRA Paper 33684, University Library of Munich, Germany.
  9. Röger, Werner & Székely, Istvan & Turrini, Alessandro Antonio, 2010. "Banking crises, Output Loss and Fiscal Policy," CEPR Discussion Papers 7815, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
  10. Julia Lendvai & Werner Roeger, 2010. "External deficits in the Baltics 1995 to 2007: Catching up or imbalances," European Economy - Economic Papers 398, Directorate General Economic and Monetary Affairs (DG ECFIN), European Commission.
  11. Alessandro Turrini, 2008. "Fiscal policy and the cycle in the Euro Area: The role of government revenue and expenditure," European Economy - Economic Papers 323, Directorate General Economic and Monetary Affairs (DG ECFIN), European Commission.

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