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La Demanda Por Importaciones En Colombia

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  • Hugo Oliveros

    ()

  • Luisa Fernanda Silva

    ()

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    Abstract

    El presente documento tiene como propósito construir, a partir de series trimestrales, modelos que expliquen el comportamiento de las importaciones colombianas para diferentes grados de agregación (totales, bienes de capital y equipo de transporte, materias primas e insumos para la industria) durante las últimas dos decadas. Adicionalmente se investiga la posibilidad de utilizar dichos modelos para proveer mecanismos de pronóstico de las importaciones. La estimación de las demandas de importaciones se hace considerando que estas mantienen una relación de equilibrio de largo plazo con el ingreso y los precios relativos. Bajo estas circunstancias, la estimación se lleva a cabo usando métodos de estimación que permiten aproximarse al problema desde un sistema de ecuaciones bajo variables integradas los cuales, en la mayoría de los casos, conducen a representaciones uniecuacionales, ECM, producto de la evaluación de condiciones de exogeneidad débil de los determinantes de las importaciones.

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    File URL: http://www.banrep.gov.co/docum/ftp/borra187.pdf
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    Bibliographic Info

    Paper provided by BANCO DE LA REPÚBLICA in its series BORRADORES DE ECONOMIA with number 002967.

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    Length: 48
    Date of creation: 30 Sep 2001
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    Handle: RePEc:col:000094:002967

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    1. Francis X. Diebold & Jose A. Lopez, 1996. "Forecast Evaluation and Combination," NBER Technical Working Papers 0192, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    2. Gregory, A.W. & Hansen, B.E., 1992. "Residual-Based Tests for Cointegration in Models with Regime Shifts," RCER Working Papers 335, University of Rochester - Center for Economic Research (RCER).
    3. Reinhart, Carmen, 1995. "Devaluation, Relative Prices, and International Trade: Evidence from Developing Countries," MPRA Paper 6974, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    4. Jaime Marquez, 1995. "A century of trade elasticities for Canada, Japan, and the United States," International Finance Discussion Papers 531, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.).
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    Cited by:
    1. Hugo Oliveros & Carlos Huertas, . "Desequilibrios Nominales y Reales del Tipo de Cambio en Colombia," Borradores de Economia 220, Banco de la Republica de Colombia.

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