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Australia's Medium-Run Exchange Rate: A Macroeconomic Balance Approach

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  • NIKOLA DVORNAK
  • MARION KOHLER
  • GORDON MENZIES

Abstract

The determinants of Australia's exchange rate based on the internal-external balance approach introduced by Williamson (1983) were analysed. Internal balance implies that the economy is operating at supply potential with no inflationary pressures. External balance is characterised as the sustainable net flow of resources (corresponding to a current account to gross domestic product ratio) between countries in internal balance. After estimating a disaggregated trade model for Australia, estimates of the medium-term exchange rate associated with a given current account position were provided. These estimates, however, vary considerably through time because of variations in key parameters. Copyright 2005 The Economic Society Of Australia.

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Bibliographic Info

Article provided by The Economic Society of Australia in its journal The Economic Record.

Volume (Year): 81 (2005)
Issue (Month): 253 (06)
Pages: 101-112

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Handle: RePEc:bla:ecorec:v:81:y:2005:i:253:p:101-112

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  1. David Gruen & Tim Robinson & Andrew Stone, 2002. "Output Gaps in Real Time: Are They Reliable Enough to Use for Monetary Policy?," RBA Research Discussion Papers rdp2002-06, Reserve Bank of Australia.
  2. Osterwald-Lenum, Michael, 1992. "A Note with Quantiles of the Asymptotic Distribution of the Maximum Likelihood Cointegration Rank Test Statistics," Oxford Bulletin of Economics and Statistics, Department of Economics, University of Oxford, vol. 54(3), pages 461-72, August.
  3. G. Russell Kincaid & Martin Fetherston & Peter Isard & Hamid Faruqee, 2001. "Methodology for Current Account and Exchange Rate Assessments," IMF Occasional Papers 209, International Monetary Fund.
  4. Banerjee, Anindya & Dolado, Juan J. & Galbraith, John W. & Hendry, David, 1993. "Co-integration, Error Correction, and the Econometric Analysis of Non-Stationary Data," OUP Catalogue, Oxford University Press, number 9780198288107.
  5. Wilkinson, Jenny, 1992. "Explaining Australia's Imports: 1974-1989," The Economic Record, The Economic Society of Australia, vol. 68(201), pages 151-64, June.
  6. Meese, Richard A. & Rogoff, Kenneth, 1983. "Empirical exchange rate models of the seventies : Do they fit out of sample?," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 14(1-2), pages 3-24, February.
  7. Johansen, Soren, 1991. "Estimation and Hypothesis Testing of Cointegration Vectors in Gaussian Vector Autoregressive Models," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 59(6), pages 1551-80, November.
  8. Gordon Menzies, 1994. "Explaining the Timing of Australia's Manufactured Export Boom," Australian Economic Review, The University of Melbourne, Melbourne Institute of Applied Economic and Social Research, vol. 27(4), pages 72-86.
  9. Johansen, Soren, 1995. "Likelihood-Based Inference in Cointegrated Vector Autoregressive Models," OUP Catalogue, Oxford University Press, number 9780198774501.
  10. Luci Ellis, 2001. "Measuring the Real Exchange Rate: Pitfalls and Practicalities," RBA Research Discussion Papers rdp2001-04, Reserve Bank of Australia.
  11. MacDonald, Ronald, 2000. "Concepts to Calculate Equilibrium Exchange Rates: An Overview," Discussion Paper Series 1: Economic Studies 2000,03, Deutsche Bundesbank, Research Centre.
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Cited by:
  1. David Norman, 2006. "Modelling Manufactured Exports: Evidence from Australian States," RBA Research Discussion Papers rdp2006-01, Reserve Bank of Australia.
  2. Gordon D. Menzies, 2005. "Who'S Afraid Of The Marshall-Lerner Condition?," Economic Papers, The Economic Society of Australia, vol. 24(4), pages 309-315, December.
  3. Rochelle Belkar & Lynne Cockerell & Christopher Kent, 2008. "Current Account Deficits: Tha Australian Debate," Central Banking, Analysis, and Economic Policies Book Series, in: Kevin Cowan & Sebastián Edwards & Rodrigo O. Valdés & Norman Loayza (Series Editor) & Klaus Schmid (ed.), Current Account and External Financing, edition 1, volume 12, chapter 13, pages 491-535 Central Bank of Chile.
  4. Simon Wren-Lewis, 2004. "A model of Equilibrium Exchange Rates for the New Zealand and Australian dollar," Reserve Bank of New Zealand Discussion Paper Series DP 2004/07, Reserve Bank of New Zealand.
  5. Rochelle Belkar & Lynne Cockerell & Christopher Kent, 2007. "Current Account Deficits: The Australian Debate," RBA Research Discussion Papers rdp2007-02, Reserve Bank of Australia.
  6. Rebecca L Driver & Peter F Westaway, 2005. "Concepts of equilibrium exchange rates," Bank of England working papers 248, Bank of England.
  7. Hali Edison & Francis Vitek, 2009. "Exchange rate assessments for Australia and New Zealand," Journal of Financial Economic Policy, Emerald Group Publishing, vol. 1(2), pages 155-176, May.
  8. Rochelle Belkar & Lynne Cockerell & Christopher Kent, 2007. "Current Account Deficits: The Australian Debate," Working Papers Central Bank of Chile 450, Central Bank of Chile.
  9. Tim Atkin & Ellis Connolly, 2013. "Australian Exports: Global Demand and the High Exchange Rate," RBA Bulletin, Reserve Bank of Australia, pages 1-10, June.
  10. Hali J. Edison & Francis Vitek, 2009. "Australia and New Zealand Exchange Rates," IMF Working Papers 09/7, International Monetary Fund.

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