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World trade and global integration in production processes: a re-assessment of import demand equations

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  • Barrell, Ray
  • Dées, Stéphane

Abstract

It is common to observe that demand elasticities in trade equations for imports are implausibly large, and that they differ between countries. Both of these present us with problems, as they imply trade will rise without bound as a proportion of GDP. The research reported here looks for alternative empirical evidence of possible factors driving the increase in trade as a proportion of GDP. We show that the inclusion of the ratios of outward and inward FDI to GDP as additional openness and globalisation indicators appear to remove the spurious accuracy with which we are measuring demand elasticities. JEL Classification: F10, F23

Suggested Citation

  • Barrell, Ray & Dées, Stéphane, 2005. "World trade and global integration in production processes: a re-assessment of import demand equations," Working Paper Series 503, European Central Bank.
    • Handle: RePEc:ecb:ecbwps:2005503
    Note: 2544114
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    File URL: https://www.ecb.europa.eu//pub/pdf/scpwps/ecbwp503.pdf
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    Cited by:

    1. Kichun Kang, 2012. "Is the "Houthakker-Magee" Finding Durable? Evidence from Disaggregated Trade Flows between China and Korea," Annals of Economics and Finance, Society for AEF, vol. 13(2), pages 299-316, November.
    2. Fic, Tatiana & Barrell, Ray & Holland, Dawn, 2008. "Entry rates and the risks of misalignment in the EU8," Journal of Policy Modeling, Elsevier, vol. 30(5), pages 761-774.
    3. Claire Giordano & Francesco Zollino, 2016. "Shedding Light on Price- and Non-price-competitiveness Determinants of Foreign Trade in the Four Largest Euro-area Countries," Review of International Economics, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 24(3), pages 604-634, August.
    4. Kamps, Annette & Beck, Roland, 2009. "Petrodollars and imports of oil exporting countries," Working Paper Series 1012, European Central Bank.
    5. Kichun Kang, 2008. "The Sustainability of Korea's Trade Balances with China and Japan: Perspective from the Asymmetry in Income Elasticities," Korean Economic Review, Korean Economic Association, vol. 24, pages 173-197.
    6. Karel Havik & Kieran Mc Morrow, 2006. "Global trade integration and outsourcing : How well is the EU coping with the new challenges?," European Economy - Economic Papers 2008 - 2015 259, Directorate General Economic and Financial Affairs (DG ECFIN), European Commission.
    7. Chinn, Menzie D., 2010. "Supply Capacity, Vertical Specialisation andTrade Costs: The Implications for Aggreagate US Trade Flow Equations," CAGE Online Working Paper Series 14, Competitive Advantage in the Global Economy (CAGE).
    8. Sabine Stephan, 2007. "A re-assessment of German import demand," IMK Working Paper 08-2007, IMK at the Hans Boeckler Foundation, Macroeconomic Policy Institute.
    9. Tkačevs, Olegs & Christodoulopoulou, Styliani & Bobeica, Elena, 2016. "The role of price and cost competitiveness for intra- and extra-euro area trade of euro area countries," Working Paper Series 1941, European Central Bank.
    10. Stirböck, Claudia, 2006. "How strong is the impact of exports and other demand components on German import demand? Evidence from euro-area and non-euro-area imports," Discussion Paper Series 1: Economic Studies 2006,39, Deutsche Bundesbank.
    11. Iana Liadze & Ray Barrell & Dawn Holland, 2007. "Fiscal Spillovers and Trade Relations in Europe," National Institute of Economic and Social Research (NIESR) Discussion Papers 289, National Institute of Economic and Social Research.
    12. Ian Hurst & Iana Liadze & Jack Meaning, 2016. "The monetary and fiscal framework of the EMU in times of high debt and constrained interest rates," National Institute of Economic and Social Research (NIESR) Discussion Papers 467, National Institute of Economic and Social Research.
    13. Ray Barrell & Tatiana Fic, 2010. "Integration, Globalisation, Technology and Trade Patterns in the EU8," Research in Economics and Business: Central and Eastern Europe, Tallinn School of Economics and Business Administration, Tallinn University of Technology, vol. 2(1).
    14. Iana Liadze & Ray Barrell & Dawn Holland, 2007. "Fiscal Spillovers and Trade Relations in Europe," National Institute of Economic and Social Research (NIESR) Discussion Papers 289, National Institute of Economic and Social Research.
    15. Styliani Christodoulopoulou & Olegs Tkacevs, 2014. "Measuring the Effectiveness of Cost and Price Competitiveness in External Rebalancing of Euro Area Countries: What Do Alternative HCIs Tell Us?," Working Papers 2014/06, Latvijas Banka.
    16. Oriol Carreras & Simon Kirby & Iana Liadze & Rebecca Piggott, 2016. "Fiscal Policy Spillovers," National Institute of Economic and Social Research (NIESR) Discussion Papers 468, National Institute of Economic and Social Research.
    17. Menzie D. Chinn, 2005. "Supply Capacity, Vertical Specialization and Tariff Rates: The Implications for Aggregate U.S. Trade Flow Equations," NBER Working Papers 11719, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    18. Oriol Carreras & Iana Liadze & Simon Kirby & Rebecca Piggott, 2016. "Quantifying Fiscal Multipliers," National Institute of Economic and Social Research (NIESR) Discussion Papers 469, National Institute of Economic and Social Research.

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    More about this item

    Keywords

    FDI; international trade;

    JEL classification:

    • F10 - International Economics - - Trade - - - General
    • F23 - International Economics - - International Factor Movements and International Business - - - Multinational Firms; International Business

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