Is Poland the Next Spain?
Abstract
We revisit Western Europe's record with labor-productivity convergence, and tentatively extrapolate its implications for the future path of Eastern Europe. The poorer Western European countries caught up with the richer ones through both higher rates of physical capital accumulation and greater total factor productivity gains. These (relatively) high rates of capital accumulation and TFP growth reflect convergence along two margins. One margin (between industry) is a massive reallocation of labor from agriculture to manufacturing and services, which have higher capital intensity and use resources more efficiently. The other margin (within industry) reflects capital deepening and technology catchup at the industry level. In Eastern Europe the employment share of agriculture is typically quite large, and agriculture is particularly unproductive. Hence, there are potential gains from sectoral reallocation. However, quantitatively the between-industry component of the East's income gap is quite small. Hence, the East seems to have only one real margin to exploit: the within industry one. Coupled with the fact that within-industry productivity gaps are enormous, this suggests that convergence will take a long time. On the positive side, however, Eastern Europe already has levels of human capital similar to those of Western Europe. This is good news because human capital gaps have proved very persistent in Western Europe's experience. Hence, Eastern Europe does start out without the handicap that is harder to overcome.Download Info
If you experience problems downloading a file, check if you have the proper application to view it first. In case of further problems read the IDEAS help page. Note that these files are not on the IDEAS site. Please be patient as the files may be large.Bibliographic Info
Paper provided by Centre for Economic Performance, LSE in its series CEP Discussion Papers with number dp0668.Length:
Date of creation: Jan 2005
Date of revision:
Handle: RePEc:cep:cepdps:dp0668
Contact details of provider:
Web page: http://cep.lse.ac.uk/_new/publications/series.asp?prog=CEP
Related research
Keywords: Economic integration; economic growth; labor; technology; productivity gaps; Europe;Other versions of this item:
- Francesco Caselli & Silvana Tenreyro, 2004. "Is Poland the next Spain?," Communities and Banking, Federal Reserve Bank of Boston.
- Francesco Caselli & Silvana Tenreyro, 2006. "Is Poland the Next Spain?," NBER Chapters, in: NBER International Seminar on Macroeconomics 2004, pages 459-533 National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
- Francesco Caselli & Silvana Tenreyro, 2005. "Is Poland the Next Spain?," NBER Working Papers 11045, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
- Caselli, Francesco & Tenreyro, Silvana, 2005. "Is Poland the Next Spain?," CEPR Discussion Papers 4877, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
- F15 - International Economics - - Trade - - - Economic Integration
- F43 - International Economics - - Macroeconomic Aspects of International Trade and Finance - - - Economic Growth of Open Economies
- N10 - Economic History - - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics; Industrial Structure; Growth; Fluctuations - - - General, International, or Comparative
- O11 - Economic Development, Technological Change, and Growth - - Economic Development - - - Macroeconomic Analyses of Economic Development
- O14 - Economic Development, Technological Change, and Growth - - Economic Development - - - Industrialization; Manufacturing and Service Industries; Choice of Technology
- O47 - Economic Development, Technological Change, and Growth - - Economic Growth and Aggregate Productivity - - - Measurement of Economic Growth; Aggregate Productivity; Cross-Country Output Convergence
This paper has been announced in the following NEP Reports:
- NEP-ALL-2005-12-01 (All new papers)
- NEP-DEV-2005-12-01 (Development)
- NEP-TRA-2005-12-01 (Transition Economics)
References
References listed on IDEASPlease report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.:
- Robert J. Barro & N. Gregory Mankiw & Xavier Sala-i-Martin, 1995.
"Capital Mobility in Neoclassical Models of Growth,"
NBER Working Papers
4206, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
- Barro, Robert J & Mankiw, N Gregory & Sala-i-Martin, Xavier, 1995. "Capital Mobility in Neoclassical Models of Growth," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 85(1), pages 103-15, March.
- Robert J. Barro & N. Gregory Mankiw & Xavier Sala-i-Martin, 1994. "Capital mobility in Neoclassical models of growth," Economics Working Papers 82, Department of Economics and Business, Universitat Pompeu Fabra.
- Barro, R. & Mankiw, G., 1992. "Capital Mobility in Neoclassical Models of Growth," Harvard Institute of Economic Research Working Papers 1615, Harvard - Institute of Economic Research.
- Barro, R.J. & Mankiw, N.G. & Sala-i-Martin, X., 1992. "Capital Mobility in Neoclassical Models of Growth," Papers 655, Yale - Economic Growth Center.
- Barro, Robert J. & Mankiw, N Gregory & Sala-i-Martin, Xavier, 1994. "Capital Mobility in Neoclassical Models of Growth," CEPR Discussion Papers 1019, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
- Patrick Honohan & Brendan Walsh, 2002.
"Catching Up with the Leaders: The Irish Hare,"
Brookings Papers on Economic Activity,
Economic Studies Program, The Brookings Institution, vol. 33(1), pages 1-78.
- Honohan, Patrick & Walsh, Brendan M., 2002. "Catching up with the leaders : the Irish hare," Open Access publications from University College Dublin urn:hdl:10197/1596, University College Dublin.
- Robert E. Hall & Charles I. Jones, 1999.
"Why Do Some Countries Produce So Much More Output per Worker than Others?,"
NBER Working Papers
6564, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
- Robert E. Hall & Charles I. Jones, 1999. "Why Do Some Countries Produce So Much More Output Per Worker Than Others?," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, MIT Press, vol. 114(1), pages 83-116, February.
- Elhanan Helpman & David T. Coe & Alexander W. Hoffmaister, 1994.
"North-South R&D Spillovers,"
IMF Working Papers
94/144, International Monetary Fund.
- Coe, David T & Helpman, Elhanan & Hoffmaister, Alexander W, 1997. "North-South R&D Spillovers," Economic Journal, Royal Economic Society, vol. 107(440), pages 134-49, January.
- Coe, David T & Helpman, Elhanan & Hoffmaister, Alexander, 1995. "North-South R&D Spillovers," CEPR Discussion Papers 1133, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
- David T. Coe & Elhanan Helpman & Alexander Hoffmaister, 1995. "North-South R&D Spillovers," NBER Working Papers 5048, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
- Ratna Sahay & Carlos A. Végh Gramont & Stanley Fischer, 1998.
"How Far is Eastern Europe from Brussels?,"
IMF Working Papers
98/53, International Monetary Fund.
- Fischer, Stanley & Sahay, Ratna & Vegh, Carlos, 1998. "How far is Eastern Europe from Brussels?," MPRA Paper 20059, University Library of Munich, Germany.
- Quah, Danny, 1996. "Regional Convergence Clusters Across Europe," CEPR Discussion Papers 1286, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
- Christopher Pissarides & Rachel Ngai, 2004.
"Balanced Growth with Structural Change,"
2004 Meeting Papers
450, Society for Economic Dynamics.
- L. Rachel Ngai & Christopher A. Pissarides, 2004. "Balanced Growth With Structural Change," CEP Discussion Papers dp0627, Centre for Economic Performance, LSE.
- Boldrin, Michele & Canova, Fabio, 2003. "Regional Policies and EU Enlargement," CEPR Discussion Papers 3744, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
- Aghion, P. & Howitt, P., 1990.
"A Model Of Growth Through Creative Destruction,"
DELTA Working Papers
90-12, DELTA (Ecole normale supérieure).
- Aghion, Philippe & Howitt, Peter, 1992. "A Model of Growth through Creative Destruction," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 60(2), pages 323-51, March.
- Aghion, P. & Howitt, P., 1989. "A Model Of Growth Through Creative Destruction," UWO Department of Economics Working Papers 8904, University of Western Ontario, Department of Economics.
- Philippe Aghion & Peter Howitt, 1990. "A Model of Growth Through Creative Destruction," NBER Working Papers 3223, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
- Aghion, P. & Howitt, P., 1989. "A Model Of Growth Through Creative Destruction," Working papers 527, Massachusetts Institute of Technology (MIT), Department of Economics.
- Jean Imbs & Romain Wacziarg, 2003.
"Stages of Diversification,"
American Economic Review,
American Economic Association, vol. 93(1), pages 63-86, March.
- Wacziarg, Romain & Imbs, Jean, 2000. "Stages of Diversification," Research Papers 1653, Stanford University, Graduate School of Business.
- Imbs, Jean & Wacziarg, Romain, 2000. "Stages of Diversification," CEPR Discussion Papers 2642, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
- Krugman, Paul, 1979. "A Model of Innovation, Technology Transfer, and the World Distribution of Income," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 87(2), pages 253-66, April.
- Ratna Sahay & Stanley Fischer & Carlos A. Végh Gramont, 1998.
"From Transition to Market - Evidence and Growth Prospects,"
IMF Working Papers
98/52, International Monetary Fund.
- Fischer, Stanley & Sahay, Ratna & Vegh, Carlos, 1998. "From transition to market: Evidence and growth prospects," MPRA Paper 20615, University Library of Munich, Germany.
- Quah, Danny T., 1996. "Regional convergence clusters across Europe," European Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 40(3-5), pages 951-958, April.
- Peter Klenow & Andrés Rodríguez-Clare, 1997. "The Neoclassical Revival in Growth Economics: Has It Gone Too Far?," NBER Chapters, in: NBER Macroeconomics Annual 1997, Volume 12, pages 73-114 National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
- Coe, David T. & Helpman, Elhanan, 1995.
"International R&D spillovers,"
European Economic Review,
Elsevier, vol. 39(5), pages 859-887, May.
- David T. Coe & Elhanan Helpman, 1995. "International R&D Spillovers," NBER Working Papers 4444, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
- Coe, David T & Helpman, Elhanan, 1993. "International R&D Spillovers," CEPR Discussion Papers 840, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
- Elhanan Helpman & David T. Coe, 1993. "International R&D Spillovers," IMF Working Papers 93/84, International Monetary Fund.
- Coe, D.T. & Helpman, E., 1993. "International R&D Spillovers," Papers 5-93, Tel Aviv.
- Ventura, Jaume, 1997. "Growth and Interdependence," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, MIT Press, vol. 112(1), pages 57-84, February.
- Barro, Robert J & Lee, Jong-Wha, 2001.
"International Data on Educational Attainment: Updates and Implications,"
Oxford Economic Papers,
Oxford University Press, vol. 53(3), pages 541-63, July.
- Robert J. Barro & Jong-Wha Lee, 2000. "International Data on Educational Attainment Updates and Implications," NBER Working Papers 7911, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
- Robert J. Barro & Jong-Wha Lee, 2000. "International Data on Educational Attainment: Updates and Implications," CID Working Papers 42, Center for International Development at Harvard University.
- Oltheten, Elisabeth & Pinteris, George & Sougiannis, Theodore, 2003. "Greece in the European Union: policy lessons from two decades of membership," The Quarterly Review of Economics and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 43(5), pages 774-806.
- Miklos Koren & Silvana Tenreyro, 2003. "Diversification and development," Working Papers 03-3, Federal Reserve Bank of Boston.
- Costas Megir & Danny Quah, 1996. "Regional Convergence Clusters Across Europe," CEP Discussion Papers dp0274, Centre for Economic Performance, LSE.
- Ben S. Bernanke & Refet S. Gürkaynak, 2002.
"Is Growth Exogenous? Taking Mankiw, Romer, and Weil Seriously,"
NBER Chapters,
in: NBER Macroeconomics Annual 2001, Volume 16, pages 11-72
National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
- Ben S. Bernanke & Refet S. Gurkaynak, 2001. "Is Growth Exogenous? Taking Mankiw, Romer and Weil Seriously," NBER Working Papers 8365, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
- Douglas Gollin & Steven Parente & Richard Rogerson, 2003. "Structural Transformation and Cross-Country Income Differences," Levine's Working Paper Archive 506439000000000259, David K. Levine.
- Mankiw, N Gregory & Romer, David & Weil, David N, 1992.
"A Contribution to the Empirics of Economic Growth,"
The Quarterly Journal of Economics,
MIT Press, vol. 107(2), pages 407-37, May.
- N. Gregory Mankiw & David Romer & David N. Weil, 1992. "A Contribution to the Empirics of Economic Growth," NBER Working Papers 3541, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
- Douglas Gollin, 2002.
"Getting Income Shares Right,"
Journal of Political Economy,
University of Chicago Press, vol. 110(2), pages 458-474, April.
- Douglas Gollin, 2001. "Getting Income Shares Right," Department of Economics Working Papers 2001-11, Department of Economics, Williams College.
Citations
Citations are extracted by the CitEc Project, subscribe to its RSS feed for this item.Cited by:
This item has more than 25 citations. To prevent cluttering this page, these citations are listed on a separate page.
Lists
This item is not listed on Wikipedia, on a reading list or among the top items on IDEAS.Statistics
Access and download statisticsCorrections
When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:cep:cepdps:dp0668For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: ().
If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.
If references are entirely missing, you can add them using this form.
If the full references list an item that is present in RePEc, but the system did not link to it, you can help with this form.
If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.
Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

