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Diversification and development

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Author Info
Miklos Koren
Silvana Tenreyro

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Abstract

This paper explores the relationship between sectoral diversification and economic development. We develop a risk-based methodology to assess countries' extent of industrial diversification. The industrial structure of a country tends to be risky when the country i) has a high sectoral concentration, ii) specializes in highly risky sectors, and/or iii) specializes in sectors highly affected by country-specific fluctuations. We document the following regularities. First, sectoral concentration declines and then increases with development. Second, industry-specific risk declines with development. Hence, at early stages of development, the decline in concentration is accompanied by a parallel decrease in industry risk, whereas at higher levels of development sectoral concentration and industry risk move in opposite directions. Third, country-specific risk declines along the development path. Fourth, the covariance between industry and country risk increases with development. We also derive indicators of consumption risk that provide direct evidence on the welfare implications of risk. Finally, we compare the overall level of risk with that of the "optimal country portfolio."

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Paper provided by Federal Reserve Bank of Boston in its series Working Papers with number 03-3.

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Date of creation: 2003
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Handle: RePEc:fip:fedbwp:03-3

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Keywords: Economic development ; Industries;

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References listed on IDEAS
Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.:
  1. Robin Brooks & Marco Del Negro, 2002. "International diversification strategies," Working Paper 2002-23, Federal Reserve Bank of Atlanta. [Downloadable!]
  2. Alan C. Stockman, 1989. "Sectoral and National Aggregate Disturbances to Industrial Output in Seven European Countries," NBER Working Papers 2313, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  3. Connor, Gregory & Korajczyk, Robert A., 1988. "Risk and return in an equilibrium APT : Application of a new test methodology," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 21(2), pages 255-289, September. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  4. Bruce N. Lehmann & David M. Modest, 1985. "The Empirical Foundations of the Arbitrage Pricing Theory II: The Optimal Construction of Basis Portfolios," NBER Working Papers 1726, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  5. Aart Kraay & Jaume Ventura, 2001. "Comparative Advantage and the Cross-section of Business Cycles," NBER Working Papers 8104, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  6. Jean Imbs & Romain Wacziarg, 2003. "Stages of Diversification," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 93(1), pages 63-86, March. [Downloadable!]
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  7. Chang-Tai Hsieh & Peter J. Klenow, 2003. "Relative prices and relative prosperity," Proceedings, Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco, issue Nov. [Downloadable!]
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  8. Del Negro, Marco, 2002. "Asymmetric shocks among U.S. states," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 56(2), pages 273-297, March. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  9. Miklós Koren, 2003. "Financial Globalization, Portfolio Diversification, and the Pattern of International Trade," IMF Working Papers 03/233, International Monetary Fund. [Downloadable!]
  10. Sebnem Kalemli-Ozcan & Bent E. Sørensen & Oved Yosha, 2003. "Risk Sharing and Industrial Specialization: Regional and International Evidence," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 93(3), pages 903-918, June. [Downloadable!]
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  11. Stockman, Alan C., 1988. "Sectoral and national aggregate disturbances to industrial output in seven European countries," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 21(2-3), pages 387-409. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  12. Daron Acemoglu & Fabrizio Zilibotti, 1994. "Was Prometheus Unbound by Chance? Risk, Diversification and Growth," Economics Working Papers 98, Department of Economics and Business, Universitat Pompeu Fabra. [Downloadable!]
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  13. Saint-Paul, Gilles, 1992. "Technological choice, financial markets and economic development," European Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 36(4), pages 763-781, May. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  14. Atish R. Ghosh & Holger C. Wolf, 1997. "Geographical and Sectoral Shocks in the U.S. Business Cycle," NBER Working Papers 6180, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  15. Maurice Obstfeld, 1995. "Risk-Taking, Global Diversification, and Growth," NBER Working Papers 4093, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  16. Greenwood, J. & Jovanovic, B., 1990. "Financial Development, Growth, And The Distribution Of Income," University of Western Ontario, The Centre for the Study of International Economic Relations Working Papers 9002, University of Western Ontario, The Centre for the Study of International Economic Relations.
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  17. Connor, Gregory & Korajczyk, Robert A., 1986. "Performance measurement with the arbitrage pricing theory : A new framework for analysis," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 15(3), pages 373-394, March. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  18. Lucas, Robert Jr., 1988. "On the mechanics of economic development," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 22(1), pages 3-42, July. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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Cited by:
(explanations, Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.)

  1. Tobias Bidlingmaier, 2007. "International Trade and Economic Growth in Developing Countries," DEGIT Conference Papers c012_041, DEGIT, Dynamics, Economic Growth, and International Trade. [Downloadable!]
  2. Luca De Benedictis & Marco Gallegati & Massimo Tamberi, 2006. "Overall Specialization and Income: Countries Diversity," Working Papers 37-2006, Macerata University, Department of Finance and Economic Sciences, revised Oct 2008. [Downloadable!]
    Other versions:
  3. Philippe Aghion & George-Marios Angeletos & Abhijit Banerjee & Kalina Manova, 2005. "Volatility and Growth: Credit Constraints and Productivity-Enhancing Investment," NBER Working Papers 11349, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  4. Luca De Benedictis, 2006. "Openness, Specialization and Growth," DEGIT Conference Papers c011_054, DEGIT, Dynamics, Economic Growth, and International Trade. [Downloadable!]
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