IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/p/fip/fedbwp/03-3.html
   My bibliography  Save this paper

Diversification and development

Author

Listed:
  • Miklos Koren
  • Silvana Tenreyro

Abstract

This paper explores the relationship between sectoral diversification and economic development. We develop a risk-based methodology to assess countries' extent of industrial diversification. The industrial structure of a country tends to be risky when the country i) has a high sectoral concentration, ii) specializes in highly risky sectors, and/or iii) specializes in sectors highly affected by country-specific fluctuations. We document the following regularities. First, sectoral concentration declines and then increases with development. Second, industry-specific risk declines with development. Hence, at early stages of development, the decline in concentration is accompanied by a parallel decrease in industry risk, whereas at higher levels of development sectoral concentration and industry risk move in opposite directions. Third, country-specific risk declines along the development path. Fourth, the covariance between industry and country risk increases with development. We also derive indicators of consumption risk that provide direct evidence on the welfare implications of risk. Finally, we compare the overall level of risk with that of the \"optimal country portfolio.\"

Suggested Citation

  • Miklos Koren & Silvana Tenreyro, 2003. "Diversification and development," Working Papers 03-3, Federal Reserve Bank of Boston.
    • Handle: RePEc:fip:fedbwp:03-3
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: http://www.bostonfed.org/economic/wp/wp2003/wp033.htm
    Download Restriction: no
    File URL: http://www.bostonfed.org/economic/wp/wp2003/wp033.pdf
    Download Restriction: no
    ---><---

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Aart Kraay & Jaume Ventura, 2007. "Comparative Advantage and the Cross-section of Business Cycles," Journal of the European Economic Association, MIT Press, vol. 5(6), pages 1300-1333, December.
    2. Obstfeld, Maurice, 1994. "Risk-Taking, Global Diversification, and Growth," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 84(5), pages 1310-1329, December.
    3. Jean Imbs & Romain Wacziarg, 2003. "Stages of Diversification," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 93(1), pages 63-86, March.
    4. Sebnem Kalemli-Ozcan & Bent E. Sørensen & Oved Yosha, 2003. "Risk Sharing and Industrial Specialization: Regional and International Evidence," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 93(3), pages 903-918, June.
    5. Connor, Gregory & Korajczyk, Robert A., 1986. "Performance measurement with the arbitrage pricing theory : A new framework for analysis," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 15(3), pages 373-394, March.
    6. Bruce N. Lehmann & David M. Modest, 1985. "The Empirical Foundations of the Arbitrage Pricing Theory I: The Empirical Tests," NBER Working Papers 1725, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    7. Greenwood, Jeremy & Jovanovic, Boyan, 1990. "Financial Development, Growth, and the Distribution of Income," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 98(5), pages 1076-1107, October.
    8. Del Negro, Marco, 2002. "Asymmetric shocks among U.S. states," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 56(2), pages 273-297, March.
    9. Bruce N. Lehmann & David M. Modest, 1985. "The Empirical Foundations of the Arbitrage Pricing Theory II: The Optimal Construction of Basis Portfolios," NBER Working Papers 1726, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    10. Chang-Tai Hsieh & Peter J. Klenow, 2007. "Relative Prices and Relative Prosperity," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 97(3), pages 562-585, June.
    11. Connor, Gregory & Korajczyk, Robert A., 1988. "Risk and return in an equilibrium APT : Application of a new test methodology," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 21(2), pages 255-289, September.
    12. Saint-Paul, Gilles, 1992. "Technological choice, financial markets and economic development," European Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 36(4), pages 763-781, May.
    13. Lucas, Robert Jr., 1988. "On the mechanics of economic development," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 22(1), pages 3-42, July.
    14. Acemoglu, Daron & Zilibotti, Fabrizio, 1997. "Was Prometheus Unbound by Chance? Risk, Diversification, and Growth," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 105(4), pages 709-751, August.
    15. Atish R. Ghosh & Holger C. Wolf, 1997. "Geographical and Sectoral Shocks in the U.S. Business Cycle," NBER Working Papers 6180, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    16. Miklós Koren, 2003. "Financial Globalization, Portfolio Diversification, and the Pattern of International Trade," IMF Working Papers 2003/233, International Monetary Fund.
    17. Stockman, Alan C., 1988. "Sectoral and national aggregate disturbances to industrial output in seven European countries," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 21(2-3), pages 387-409.
    18. Robin Brooks & Marco Del Negro, 2002. "International diversification strategies," FRB Atlanta Working Paper 2002-23, Federal Reserve Bank of Atlanta.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Citations

    Citations are extracted by the CitEc Project, subscribe to its RSS feed for this item.
    as


    Cited by:

    1. Francesco Caselli & Silvana Tenreyro, 2006. "Is Poland the Next Spain?," NBER Chapters, in: NBER International Seminar on Macroeconomics 2004, pages 459-533, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    2. Kemeny, Thomas & Storper, Michael, 2012. "Specialization and regional economic development," LSE Research Online Documents on Economics 58538, London School of Economics and Political Science, LSE Library.
    3. Chami Ralph & Hakura Dalia S. & Montiel Peter J., 2012. "Do Worker Remittances Reduce Output Volatility in Developing Countries?," Journal of Globalization and Development, De Gruyter, vol. 3(1), pages 1-25, June.
    4. Rodolfo Cermeño & María José Roa, 2013. "Desarrollo financiero, crecimiento y volatidad: Revisión de la literatura reciente," Documentos de Investigación - Research Papers 9, CEMLA.
    5. Sarah Jacobson & Ragan Petrie, 2014. "Favor trading in public good provision," Experimental Economics, Springer;Economic Science Association, vol. 17(3), pages 439-460, September.
    6. Luca De Benedictis & Marco Gallegati & Massimo Tamberi, 2006. "Overall Specialization and Income: Countries Diversity," Working Papers 37-2006, Macerata University, Department of Finance and Economic Sciences, revised Oct 2008.
    7. Luca De Benedictis, 2006. "Openness, Specialization and Growth," DEGIT Conference Papers c011_054, DEGIT, Dynamics, Economic Growth, and International Trade.
    8. Tobias Bidlingmaier, 2007. "International Trade and Economic Growth in Developing Countries," DEGIT Conference Papers c012_041, DEGIT, Dynamics, Economic Growth, and International Trade.
    9. Philippe Aghion & George-Marios Angeletos & Abhijit Banerjee & Kalina Manova, 2005. "Volatility and Growth: Credit Constraints and Productivity-Enhancing Investment," NBER Working Papers 11349, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    10. Ms. Dalia S Hakura & Mr. Ralph Chami & Mr. Peter J Montiel, 2009. "Remittances: An Automatic Output Stabilizer?," IMF Working Papers 2009/091, International Monetary Fund.

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Miklós Koren & Silvana Tenreyro, 2007. "Volatility and Development," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, Oxford University Press, vol. 122(1), pages 243-287.
    2. Ṣebnem Kalemli-Özcan & Bent E. Sorensen & Oved Yosha, 1999. "Industrial specialization and the asymmetry of shocks across regions," Research Working Paper 99-06, Federal Reserve Bank of Kansas City.
    3. Kalemli-Ozcan, Sebnem & Sorensen, Bent E. & Yosha, Oved, 2001. "Economic integration, industrial specialization, and the asymmetry of macroeconomic fluctuations," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 55(1), pages 107-137, October.
    4. Kalemli-Ozcan, Sebnem & Sørensen, Bent E & Yosha, Oved, 2004. "Asymmetric Shocks and Risk Sharing in a Monetary Union: Updated Evidence and Policy Implications for Europe," CEPR Discussion Papers 4463, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
    5. Toseef Azid & Naeem Khali & Toseef Muhammad Jamil, 2006. "Sectoral Volatility, Development, and Governance: A Case Study of Pakistan," The Pakistan Development Review, Pakistan Institute of Development Economics, vol. 45(4), pages 797-817.
    6. Sebnem Kalemli-Ozcan, 2011. "Comment on "The Risk Content of Exports: A Portfolio View of International Trade"," NBER Chapters, in: NBER International Seminar on Macroeconomics 2011, pages 152-157, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    7. Miklós Koren & Silvana Tenreyro, 2013. "Technological Diversification," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 103(1), pages 378-414, February.
    8. Du, Julan & He, Qing & Zhang, Ce, 2022. "Risk sharing and industrial specialization in China," Journal of Comparative Economics, Elsevier, vol. 50(2), pages 599-626.
    9. Sebnem Kalemli-Ozcan & Bent E. Sørensen & Oved Yosha, 2003. "Risk Sharing and Industrial Specialization: Regional and International Evidence," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 93(3), pages 903-918, June.
    10. Bos, J.W.B. & Economidou, C. & Zhang, L., 2011. "Specialization in the presence of trade and financial integration: explorations of the integration-specialization nexus," Research Memorandum 026, Maastricht University, Maastricht Research School of Economics of Technology and Organization (METEOR).
    11. Jaap W. B. Bos & Claire Economidou & Lu Zhang, 2020. "Specialization in the presence of trade and financial openness," Empirical Economics, Springer, vol. 58(6), pages 2783-2816, June.
    12. Sam Hak Kan Tang, 2018. "Does Scientific And Technical Research Reduce Macroeconomic Volatility?," Bulletin of Economic Research, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 70(1), pages 68-88, January.
    13. Levine, Ross & Zervos, Sara, 1998. "Stock Markets, Banks, and Economic Growth," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 88(3), pages 537-558, June.
    14. Meon, Pierre-Guillaume & Weill, Laurent, 2004. "A view of the European Union as an evolving country portfolio," European Journal of Political Economy, Elsevier, vol. 20(4), pages 853-868, November.
    15. Jean Imbs & Romain Wacziarg, 2003. "Stages of Diversification," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 93(1), pages 63-86, March.
    16. Bangake, Chrysost & Eggoh, Jude C., 2011. "Further evidence on finance-growth causality: A panel data analysis," Economic Systems, Elsevier, vol. 35(2), pages 176-188, June.
    17. Gancia, Gino & Zilibotti, Fabrizio, 2005. "Horizontal Innovation in the Theory of Growth and Development," Handbook of Economic Growth, in: Philippe Aghion & Steven Durlauf (ed.), Handbook of Economic Growth, edition 1, volume 1, chapter 3, pages 111-170, Elsevier.
    18. Sèna Kimm Gnangnon, 2022. "Export diversification and financial openness," International Economics and Economic Policy, Springer, vol. 19(4), pages 675-717, October.
    19. Imbs, Jean, 2007. "Growth and volatility," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 54(7), pages 1848-1862, October.
    20. Viral V. Acharya & Jean Imbs & Jason Sturgess, 2011. "Finance and Efficiency: Do Bank Branching Regulations Matter?," Review of Finance, European Finance Association, vol. 15(1), pages 135-172.

    More about this item

    Keywords

    Economic development; Industries;

    NEP fields

    This paper has been announced in the following NEP Reports:

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:fip:fedbwp:03-3. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Catherine Spozio (email available below). General contact details of provider: https://edirc.repec.org/data/frbbous.html .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.