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Constants do not stay constant because variables are varying

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Author Info
Rasmus Kattai ()

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Abstract

This paper focuses on the dynamic properties of error correction models (ECM). It is shown that the absence of structural breaks in the cointegrating vector does not necessarily imply that also all parameters of the dynamic specification of the ECM are time invariant. In some cases, depending on the data generating process of regressors, the intercept has to be time varying in order to have the long run equilibrium of a dynamic model independent of the growth rates of the variables out of sample period, i.e. to satisfy the dynamic homogeneity condition. It is found to be common when estimating ECMs on macroeconomic time series of converging countries. Dynamic homogeneity can be achieved by imposing the state dependent dynamic homogeneity restriction on the intercept. Applying the restriction is illustrated by an empirical example using Estonian data on real wages and labour productivity

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File URL: http://www.eestipank.info/pub/en/dokumendid/publikatsioonid/seeriad/uuringud/_2007/_1_2007/_wp_107.pdf
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Publisher Info
Paper provided by Bank of Estonia in its series Bank of Estonia Working Papers with number 2007-01.

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Date of creation: 02 Jan 2007
Date of revision: 02 Jan 2007
Handle: RePEc:eea:boewps:wp2007-01

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Postal: Estonia bld. 13, 15095 Tallinn, ESTONIA
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Related research
Keywords: dynamic homogeneity; error correction models; forecasting;

Find related papers by JEL classification:
C32 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Multiple or Simultaneous Equation Models; Multiple Variables - - - Time-Series Models; Dynamic Quantile Regressions
C51 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Econometric Modeling - - - Model Construction and Estimation

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This page was last updated on 2009-11-18.


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