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Constants do not stay constant because variables are varying

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  • Rasmus Kattai

Abstract

This paper focuses on the dynamic properties of error correction models (ECM). It is shown that the absence of structural breaks in the cointegrating vector does not necessarily imply that also all parameters of the dynamic specification of the ECM are time invariant. In some cases, depending on the data generating process of regressors, the intercept has to be time varying in order to have the long run equilibrium of a dynamic model independent of the growth rates of the variables out of sample period, i.e. to satisfy the dynamic homogeneity condition. It is found to be common when estimating ECMs on macroeconomic time series of converging countries. Dynamic homogeneity can be achieved by imposing the state dependent dynamic homogeneity restriction on the intercept. Applying the restriction is illustrated by an empirical example using Estonian data on real wages and labour productivity

Suggested Citation

  • Rasmus Kattai, 2007. "Constants do not stay constant because variables are varying," Bank of Estonia Working Papers 2007-01, Bank of Estonia, revised 02 Jan 2007.
  • Handle: RePEc:eea:boewps:wp2007-01
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    File URL: http://www.eestipank.ee/sites/eestipank.ee/files/publication/en/WorkingPapers/2007/_wp_107.pdf
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    1. Robert M. Solow, 1956. "A Contribution to the Theory of Economic Growth," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, President and Fellows of Harvard College, vol. 70(1), pages 65-94.
    2. Susana Botas, 2002. "Should we Distinguish Between Static and Dynamic Long Run Equilibrium in Error Correction Models?," Working Papers w200202, Banco de Portugal, Economics and Research Department.
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    Cited by:

    1. Lewis, John, 2009. "Hitting and hoping?: Meeting the exchange rate and inflation criteria during a period of nominal convergence," European Journal of Political Economy, Elsevier, vol. 25(4), pages 508-524, December.
    2. Vincze, János & Bíró, Anikó & Elek, Péter, 2007. "Szimulációk és érzékenységvizsgálatok a magyar gazdaság egy középméretű makromodelljével [Simulations and sensitivity analyses with a medium-sized macro model of the Hungarian economy]," Közgazdasági Szemle (Economic Review - monthly of the Hungarian Academy of Sciences), Közgazdasági Szemle Alapítvány (Economic Review Foundation), vol. 0(9), pages 774-799.

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    More about this item

    Keywords

    dynamic homogeneity; error correction models; forecasting;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • C32 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Multiple or Simultaneous Equation Models; Multiple Variables - - - Time-Series Models; Dynamic Quantile Regressions; Dynamic Treatment Effect Models; Diffusion Processes; State Space Models
    • C51 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Econometric Modeling - - - Model Construction and Estimation

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