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Empirical evaluation of nominal convergence in Czech Republic, Poland and Hungary (CPH)

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  • Mamoudou, Toure
  • Jamel, Trabelsi
  • Frédéric, Dufourt

Abstract

We estimate a four variable structural vector auto regression (SVAR) model of the Czech Republic, Poland and Hungary economies in order to evaluate the links between the instruments of monetary policy and inflation outcomes. We find that the linkages between the interest rates and price levels are weak. However, the exchange rate constitutes the most important channel of monetary policy transmission for Poland and Hungary. For the Czech Republic, the link between interest rate rise and price level is rather indirect.

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Bibliographic Info

Article provided by Elsevier in its journal Economic Modelling.

Volume (Year): 26 (2009)
Issue (Month): 5 (September)
Pages: 993-999

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Handle: RePEc:eee:ecmode:v:26:y:2009:i:5:p:993-999

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Web page: http://www.elsevier.com/locate/inca/30411

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Keywords: CPH Nominal convergence Monetary policy shock Structural VAR;

References

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  1. Matthew D. Shapiro & Mark W. Watson, 1988. "Sources of Business Cycle Fluctuations," NBER Working Papers 2589, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  2. Barlow, David, 2005. "The Hungarian exchange rate and inflation over the transition," Economic Systems, Elsevier, vol. 29(1), pages 87-97, March.
  3. Jiri Jonas & Frederic S. Mishkin, 2003. "Inflation Targeting in Transition Countries: Experience and Prospects," NBER Working Papers 9667, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  4. Laurence Ball, 2000. "Policy Rules and External Shocks," NBER Working Papers 7910, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  5. Laurence M. Ball, 1999. "Policy Rules for Open Economies," NBER Chapters, in: Monetary Policy Rules, pages 127-156 National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  6. Kim, Soyoung & Roubini, Nouriel, 2000. "Exchange rate anomalies in the industrial countries: A solution with a structural VAR approach," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 45(3), pages 561-586, June.
  7. Olivier J. Blanchard & Mark W. Watson, 1986. "Are Business Cycles All Alike?," NBER Chapters, in: The American Business Cycle: Continuity and Change, pages 123-180 National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  8. Ben S. Bernanke, 1986. "Alternative Explanations of the Money-Income Correlation," NBER Working Papers 1842, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  9. Stephen G. Cecchetti & Robert W. Rich, 1999. "Structural estimates of the U.S. sacrifice ratio," Staff Reports 71, Federal Reserve Bank of New York.
  10. Olivier Jean Blanchard & Danny Quah, 1988. "The Dynamic Effects of Aggregate Demand and Supply Disturbances," NBER Working Papers 2737, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  11. Orlowski, Lucjan T., 2004. "Money rules for monetary convergence to the euro," Journal of Policy Modeling, Elsevier, vol. 26(7), pages 817-837, October.
  12. R. Golinelli & R. Rovelli, 2001. "Interest Rate Rules and Inflation Targeting in Three Transition Countries," Working Papers 429, Dipartimento Scienze Economiche, Universita' di Bologna.
  13. Michel Aglietta & Camille Baulant & Sandra Moatti, 2003. "Les PECO devant la tentation de l'euro," Economie Internationale, CEPII research center, issue 93, pages 11-36.
  14. Lucjan Orlowski, 2003. "Monetary Convergence and Risk Premiums in the EU Accession Countries," Open Economies Review, Springer, vol. 14(3), pages 251-267, July.
  15. John B. Taylor, 2001. "The Role of the Exchange Rate in Monetary-Policy Rules," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 91(2), pages 263-267, May.
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Citations

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Cited by:
  1. Minea, Alexandru & Rault, Christophe, 2011. "External Monetary Shocks and Monetary Integration: Evidence from the Bulgarian Currency Board," IZA Discussion Papers 5797, Institute for the Study of Labor (IZA).
  2. Ronayne, David, 2011. "Which Impulse Response Function?," The Warwick Economics Research Paper Series (TWERPS) 971, University of Warwick, Department of Economics.
  3. Claude Diebolt & Mamoudou Toure & Jamel Trabelsi, 2012. "Monetary Credibility Effects on Inflation Dynamics: A Macrohistorical Case Study," Working Papers 12-04, Association Française de Cliométrie (AFC).

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