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Monetary convergence of the EU candidates to the Euro: A theoretical framework and policy implications

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  • Orlowski, Lucjan T.

Abstract

A flexible approach to direct inflation targeting is a viable monetary policy choice for transition economies that is believed to facilitate both the economic transition and the monetary convergence to the euro. Following this assumption, an analytical model investigating the link between the inflation process and monetary variables in transition economies is advanced in this study. The empirical testing is conducted for Poland, the Czech Republic and Hungary. The analysis recommends that the monetary convergence begins with inflation targeting and concludes with a full-fledged euroization. It further advocates the application of flexible benchmarks of monetary convergence that would accommodate various non-monetary factors affecting inflation in transition economies. --

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Paper provided by ZEI - Center for European Integration Studies, University of Bonn in its series ZEI Working Papers with number B 25-2001.

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Date of creation: 2001
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Handle: RePEc:zbw:zeiwps:b252001

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  1. Szapary, Gyorgy & Jakab, Zoltan M., 1998. "Exchange Rate Policy in Transition Economies: The Case of Hungary," Journal of Comparative Economics, Elsevier, vol. 26(4), pages 691-717, December.
  2. Svensson, Lars E O, 1998. "Inflation Targeting as a Monetary Policy Rule," CEPR Discussion Papers, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers 1998, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
  3. Svensson, L.E.O., 1998. "Open-Economy Inflation Targeting," Papers, Stockholm - International Economic Studies 638, Stockholm - International Economic Studies.
  4. Ali M. Kutan & Josef C. Brada, 1998. "The persistence of moderate inflation in the Czech Republic and the Koruna crisis of May 1997," Working Papers, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis 1998-021, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis.
  5. Paul R. Masson, 1999. "Monetary and Exchange Rate Policy of Transition Economies of Central and Eastern Europe after the Launch of EMU," IMF Policy Discussion Papers 99/5, International Monetary Fund.
  6. Francisco de A. Nadal-De Simone, 2001. "Inflation targeting in a small open economy: The behaviour of price variables," New Zealand Economic Papers, Taylor & Francis Journals, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 35(1), pages 101-142.
  7. Roberto Golinelli & Riccardo Rovelli, 2002. "Painless disinflation? Monetary policy rules in Hungary, 1991-99," The Economics of Transition, The European Bank for Reconstruction and Development, The European Bank for Reconstruction and Development, vol. 10(1), pages 55-91, March.
  8. Orlowski, Lucjan T., 2001. "From inflation targeting to the euro-peg: A model of monetary convergence for transition economies," Economic Systems, Elsevier, Elsevier, vol. 25(3), pages 233-251, September.
  9. Laurence Ball, 1998. "Policy Rules for Open Economies," RBA Research Discussion Papers, Reserve Bank of Australia rdp9806, Reserve Bank of Australia.
  10. Andrew Haldane, 1997. "Some Issues in Inflation Targeting," Bank of England working papers, Bank of England 74, Bank of England.
  11. Lucjan T Orlowski, 2005. "A Dynamic Approach to Inflation Targeting in Transition Economies," Macroeconomics, EconWPA 0501038, EconWPA.
  12. Roman Matousek, 2001. "Transparency and Credibility of Monetary Policy in Transition Countries: The Case of the Czech Republic," Zagreb International Review of Economics and Business, Faculty of Economics and Business, University of Zagreb, Faculty of Economics and Business, University of Zagreb, vol. 4(2), pages 91-104, November.
  13. Roman Matousek, 2001. "Transparency and Credibility of Monetary Policy in Transition Countries: The Case of the Czech Republic," Archive of Monetary Policy Division Working Papers, Czech National Bank 2001/37, Czech National Bank.
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Cited by:
  1. Josef Brada & Ali Kutan, 1999. "The End of Moderate Inflation in Three Transition Economies?," William Davidson Institute Working Papers Series 230, William Davidson Institute at the University of Michigan.
  2. Michel Aglietta & Camille Baulant & Sandra Moatti, 2003. "Les PECO devant la tentation de l'euro," Economie Internationale, CEPII research center, CEPII research center, issue 93, pages 11-36.
  3. Raoul Lättemäe, 2003. "EMU Accession Issues in Baltic Countries," Eastward Enlargement of the Euro-zone Working Papers, Free University Berlin, Jean Monnet Centre of Excellence wp17a, Free University Berlin, Jean Monnet Centre of Excellence, revised 01 May 2003.
  4. Orlowski, Lucjan T., 2002. "Monetary convergence and risk premiums in the EU candidate countries," ZEI Working Papers B 26-2002, ZEI - Center for European Integration Studies, University of Bonn.

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