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Painless disinflation? Monetary policy rules in Hungary, 1991‐99

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  • Roberto Golinelli
  • Riccardo Rovelli

Abstract

We estimate a small structural model for inflation, the output gap, the domestic interest rate and the exchange rate for Hungary during the period of the transition (1991‐99). The transmission of monetary policy impulses to macro variables is characterized in a similar fashion to that of advanced open industrial countries. In particular, in the context of our rational expectations, forward‐looking model, the interest rate channel on aggregate demand and the exchange rate channel work together as parts of the same disinflation policy. We draw several conclusions on understanding and modeling the effects of monetary policy, and also on the desirable design of policy rules during the process of disinflation. JEL classification: E17, E52, P24.

Suggested Citation

  • Roberto Golinelli & Riccardo Rovelli, 2002. "Painless disinflation? Monetary policy rules in Hungary, 1991‐99," The Economics of Transition, The European Bank for Reconstruction and Development, vol. 10(1), pages 55-91.
    • Handle: RePEc:bla:etrans:v:10:y:2002:i:1:p:55-91
    DOI: 10.1111/1468-0351.00103
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    Citations

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    Cited by:

    1. Orlowski, Lucjan T., 2004. "Exchange rate risk and convergence to the Euro," ZEI Working Papers B 25-2004, University of Bonn, ZEI - Center for European Integration Studies.
    2. Orlowski, Lucjan T., 2001. "Monetary convergence of the EU candidates to the Euro: A theoretical framework and policy implications," ZEI Working Papers B 25-2001, University of Bonn, ZEI - Center for European Integration Studies.
    3. Orlowski, Lucjan T., 2004. "Money rules for the eurozone candidate countries," ZEI Working Papers B 05-2004, University of Bonn, ZEI - Center for European Integration Studies.
    4. Golinelli, Roberto & Rovelli, Riccardo, 2005. "Monetary policy transmission, interest rate rules and inflation targeting in three transition countries," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 29(1), pages 183-201, January.
    5. Orlowski, Lucjan T., 2005. "Monetary convergence of the EU accession countries to the eurozone: A theoretical framework and policy implications," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 29(1), pages 203-225, January.
    6. Vinhas de Souza, Lúcio & Ledrut, Elisabeth, 2002. "Alternative Paths Towards EMU: Lessons from an Expanded Mundell-Fleming Model for the Accession Countries," Kiel Working Papers 1132, Kiel Institute for the World Economy (IfW Kiel).
    7. Rimal, N.S. & Kumar, S. & Singh, D.R. & Chahal, V.P. & Shaloo, 2015. "Sources of Growth in Pulses Production in India," Agricultural Economics Research Review, Agricultural Economics Research Association (India), vol. 28(1).
    8. Federico Sturzenegger, 2019. "Macri´s Macro: The meandering road to stability and growth," Working Papers 135, Universidad de San Andres, Departamento de Economia, revised Oct 2019.

    More about this item

    JEL classification:

    • E17 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - General Aggregative Models - - - Forecasting and Simulation: Models and Applications
    • E52 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Monetary Policy, Central Banking, and the Supply of Money and Credit - - - Monetary Policy
    • P24 - Political Economy and Comparative Economic Systems - - Socialist and Transition Economies - - - National Income, Product, and Expenditure; Money; Inflation

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