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The end of moderate inflation in three transition economies?

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Author Info
Josef C. Brada
Ali M. Kutan

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Abstract

This paper examines the ending of moderate rates of inflation in three transition economies, the Czech Republic, Hungary and Poland at the end of 1998. We argue that the institutions for the conduct of monetary policy in these countries were relatively weak and that monetary policy was unsupported by fiscal policy and hampered by multiple objectives. Using a VAR model of inflation, we show that, under a variety of assumptions, foreign prices and the persistence of inflation are the key determinants of inflation in these countries. From this finding we conclude that the end of moderate inflation in the Czech Republic, Hungary and Poland was largely due to the decline in import prices in the second half of 1998, and thus it may be a temporary phenomenon.

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Paper provided by Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis in its series Working Papers with number 1999-003.

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Date of creation: 1999
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Handle: RePEc:fip:fedlwp:1999-003

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Keywords: Monetary policy ; Fiscal policy ; Inflation (Finance) ; Czech Republic ; Hungary ; Poland;

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References listed on IDEAS
Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.:
  1. Richards, Anthony J. & Tersman, Gunnar H. R., 1996. "Growth, Nontradables, and Price Convergence in the Baltics," Journal of Comparative Economics, Elsevier, vol. 23(2), pages 121-145, October. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  2. Hafer, R W & Kutan, A M, 1997. "More Evidence on the Money-Output Relationship," Economic Inquiry, Oxford University Press, vol. 35(1), pages 48-58, January.
  3. Gottschalk, Jan & Moore, David, 2001. "Implementing Inflation Targeting Regimes: The Case of Poland," Journal of Comparative Economics, Elsevier, vol. 29(1), pages 24-39, March. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  4. Rudebusch, Glenn D, 1993. "The Uncertain Unit Root in Real GNP," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 83(1), pages 264-72, March. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  5. Paul R. Masson, 1997. "The Scope for Inflation Targeting in Developing Countries," IMF Working Papers 97/130, International Monetary Fund.
  6. Dornbusch, Rudiger & Fischer, Stanley, 1993. "Moderate Inflation," World Bank Economic Review, Oxford University Press, vol. 7(1), pages 1-44, January.
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  7. Canova, Fabio, 1998. "Detrending and business cycle facts," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 41(3), pages 475-512, May. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  8. DeJong, D.N. & Whiteman, C.H., 1991. "The Case for Trend-Stationarity is Stronger than we Thought," Working Papers 91-05, University of Iowa, Department of Economics.
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  9. Lucjan T Orlowski, 2005. "Monetary Convergence of the EU Candidates to the Euro: A Theoretical Framework and Policy Implications," Macroeconomics 0501032, EconWPA. [Downloadable!]
  10. Ball, Laurence, 1994. "Credible Disinflation with Staggered Price-Setting," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 84(1), pages 282-89, March. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  11. DeJong, David N. & Whiteman, Charles H., 1991. "Reconsidering 'trends and random walks in macroeconomic time series'," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 28(2), pages 221-254, October. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  12. Dittus Peter, 1994. "Bank Reform and Behavior in Central Europe," Journal of Comparative Economics, Elsevier, vol. 19(3), pages 335-361, December. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  13. Hawkins, Robert G & Macaluso, Donald, 1977. "The Avoidance of Restrictive Monetary Policies in Host Countries by Multinational Firms," Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 9(4), pages 562-71, November. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  14. Frederic S. Mishkin & Adam S. Posen, 1997. "Inflation targeting: lessons from four countries," Economic Policy Review, Federal Reserve Bank of New York, issue Aug, pages 9-110. [Downloadable!]
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  15. DeJong, David N. & Nankervis, John C. & Savin, N. E. & Whiteman, Charles H., 1992. "The power problems of unit root test in time series with autoregressive errors," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 53(1-3), pages 323-343. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  16. Martin Feldstein & James H. Stock, 1994. "The Use of a Monetary Aggregate to Target Nominal GDP," NBER Chapters, in: Monetary Policy, pages 7-69 National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc. [Downloadable!]
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  17. William J. McDonough, 1997. "A framework for the pursuit of price stability," Economic Policy Review, Federal Reserve Bank of New York, issue Aug, pages 1-7. [Downloadable!]
  18. Szapary, Gyorgy & Jakab, Zoltan M., 1998. "Exchange Rate Policy in Transition Economies: The Case of Hungary," Journal of Comparative Economics, Elsevier, vol. 26(4), pages 691-717, December. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  19. Sims, Christopher A & Stock, James H & Watson, Mark W, 1990. "Inference in Linear Time Series Models with Some Unit Roots," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 58(1), pages 113-44, January. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  20. Desai, Padma, 1998. "Macroeconomic Fragility and Exchange Rate Vulnerability: A Cautionary Record of Transition Economies," Journal of Comparative Economics, Elsevier, vol. 26(4), pages 621-641, December. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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Cited by:
(explanations, Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.)

  1. Boriss Siliverstovs & Olena Bilan, 2005. "Modelling Inflation Dynamics in Transition Economies: The Case of Ukraine," Discussion Papers of DIW Berlin 476, DIW Berlin, German Institute for Economic Research. [Downloadable!]
    Other versions:
  2. Komulainen, Tuomas & Pirttilä, Jukka, 2000. "Fiscal Explanations for Inflation: Any Evidence from Transition Economies?," BOFIT Discussion Papers 11/2000, Bank of Finland, Institute for Economies in Transition. [Downloadable!]
    Other versions:
  3. Dvorsky, Sandra, 2000. "Measuring Central Bank Independence in Selected Transition Countries and the Disinflation Process," BOFIT Discussion Papers 13/2000, Bank of Finland, Institute for Economies in Transition. [Downloadable!]
  4. Wachtel, Paul & Korhonen, Iikka, 2004. "Observations on disinflation in transition economies," BOFIT Discussion Papers 5/2004, Bank of Finland, Institute for Economies in Transition. [Downloadable!]
  5. Kim, Byung-Yeon, 2001. "Determinants of Inflation in Poland: A Structural Cointegration Approach," BOFIT Discussion Papers 16/2001, Bank of Finland, Institute for Economies in Transition. [Downloadable!]
  6. Ekaterina Vostroknutova, 2003. "Polish Stabilization: What can we learn from the I(2) Cointegration Analysis?," Economic Change and Restructuring, Springer, vol. 36(2), pages 177-198, June. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  7. Ekaterina VOSTROKNUTOVA, 2003. "Shock Therapy? An I (2) Cointegration Analysis of the Russian Stabilization," Economics Working Papers ECO2003/16, European University Institute. [Downloadable!]
  8. Lena Malesevic-Perovic, 2009. "Cointegration Approach to Analysing Inflation in Croatia," Financial Theory and Practice, Institute of Public Finance, vol. 33(2), pages 201-218. [Downloadable!]
  9. Peter Backé & Jarko Fidrmuc & Thomas Reininger & Franz Schardax, 2002. "Price Dynamics in Central and Eastern European EU Accession Countries," Working Papers 61, Oesterreichische Nationalbank (Austrian Central Bank). [Downloadable!]
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