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More Evidence on the Money-Output Relationship

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  • Hafer, R W
  • Kutan, A M

Abstract

Recent studies have found that money loses its explanatory power over output if the 1980s are included in the sample. Interest rates, not money, appear to predict output. Using annual data for 1915-93 and quarterly data for 1960-93, the authors demonstrate that the supposed breakdown in the money-output relationship stems from the type of stationary assumption imposed on the data. Assuming difference-stationary produces results found in the literature. Assuming trend-stationary produces results indicating that money and output remain statistically related. Moreover, the change in the stationarity assumption greatly affects the quantitative importance of interest rates in explaining output. Copyright 1997 by Oxford University Press.

Suggested Citation

  • Hafer, R W & Kutan, A M, 1997. "More Evidence on the Money-Output Relationship," Economic Inquiry, Western Economic Association International, vol. 35(1), pages 48-58, January.
    • Handle: RePEc:oup:ecinqu:v:35:y:1997:i:1:p:48-58
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    Citations

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    Cited by:

    1. Maral Kichian, 2012. "Financial Conditions and the Money-Output Relationship in Canada," Staff Working Papers 12-33, Bank of Canada.
    2. Jiranyakul, Komain, 2020. "Government Expenditures and Economic Growth: A Cointegration Analysis for Thailand under the Floating Exchange Rate Regime," MPRA Paper 109054, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    3. Shuping Shi & Stan Hurn & Peter C B Phillips, 2016. "Causal Change Detection in Possibly Integrated Systems: Revisiting the Money-Income Relationship," NCER Working Paper Series 113, National Centre for Econometric Research.
    4. Shuping Shi & Peter C. B. Phillips & Stan Hurn, 2018. "Change Detection and the Causal Impact of the Yield Curve," Journal of Time Series Analysis, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 39(6), pages 966-987, November.
    5. Dr.Godwin Chukwudum Nwaobi, 2004. "Money And Output Interraction In Nigeria," Macroeconomics 0405012, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    6. Jan Marc Berk & Gerbert Hebbink, 2006. "The anchoring of European inflation expectations," DNB Working Papers 116, Netherlands Central Bank, Research Department.
    7. Yannis Panagopoulos & Aristotelis Spiliotis, 2006. "Testing Money Supply Endogeneity: The Case of Greece (1975-1998)," European Research Studies Journal, European Research Studies Journal, vol. 0(1-2), pages 85-102.
    8. Bernd Hayo, 1999. "Money-output Granger causality revisited: an empirical analysis of EU countries," Applied Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 31(11), pages 1489-1501.
    9. William Gissy, 1999. "Net treasury borrowing and interest-rate changes," Journal of Economics and Finance, Springer;Academy of Economics and Finance, vol. 23(1), pages 23-29, March.
    10. Rik Hafer, 2001. "What remains of monetarism?," Economic Review, Federal Reserve Bank of Atlanta, vol. 86(Q4), pages 13-33.
    11. Jiranyakul, Komain, 2020. "Government Expenditures and Economic Growth: A Cointegration Analysis for Thailand under the Floating Exchange Rate Regime," MPRA Paper 109585, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    12. Corradi, Valentina & Swanson, Norman R. & Olivetti, Claudia, 2001. "Predictive ability with cointegrated variables," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 104(2), pages 315-358, September.
    13. Brada, Josef C. & Kutan, Ali M., 1999. "The end of moderate inflation in three transition economies?," ZEI Working Papers B 21-1999, University of Bonn, ZEI - Center for European Integration Studies.
    14. Joe Haslag & R.W. Hafer & Garett Jones, 2003. "The Effect of Monetary Policy on Economic Output," Working Papers 0311, Department of Economics, University of Missouri.
    15. R. W. Hafer & Ali M. Kutan, 2002. "Detrending and the Money‐Output Link: International Evidence," Southern Economic Journal, John Wiley & Sons, vol. 69(1), pages 159-174, July.
    16. Tracy Chan & Ramdane Djoudad & Jackson Loi, 2006. "Regime Shifts in the Indicator Properties of Narrow Money in Canada," Staff Working Papers 06-6, Bank of Canada.
    17. Ran, Jimmy & Voon, Jan P. & Li, Guangzhong, 2008. "Effects of foreign currency component in monetary aggregates on money neutrality," Economics Letters, Elsevier, vol. 99(3), pages 435-438, June.
    18. Jiranyakul, Komain, 2020. "Government Expenditures and Economic Growth: A Cointegration Analysis for Thailand under the Floating Exchange Rate Regime," MPRA Paper 100284, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    19. Hafer, R.W. & Haslag, Joseph H. & Jones, Garett, 2007. "On money and output: Is money redundant?," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 54(3), pages 945-954, April.
    20. Swanson, Norman R., 1998. "Money and output viewed through a rolling window," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 41(3), pages 455-474, May.
    21. William Gissy, 1999. "Treasury bill rates and treasury cash reserves," Atlantic Economic Journal, Springer;International Atlantic Economic Society, vol. 27(4), pages 435-443, December.
    22. Jan Marc Berk, 2002. "Consumers' Inflation Expectations And Monetary Policy In Europe," Contemporary Economic Policy, Western Economic Association International, vol. 20(2), pages 122-132, April.
    23. Jiranyakul, Komain, 2007. "The Relation between Government Expenditures and Economic Growth in Thailand," MPRA Paper 46070, University Library of Munich, Germany.

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