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Financial Conditions and the Money-Output Relationship in Canada

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  • Maral Kichian
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    Abstract

    We propose a drifting-coefficient model to empirically study the effect of money on output growth in Canada and to examine the role of prevailing financial conditions for that relationship. We show that such a time-varying approach can be a useful way of modelling the impact of money on growth, and can partly reconcile the lack of concensus in the literature on the question of whether money affects growth. In addition, we find that credit conditions also play a role in that relationship. In particular, there is an additional negative short-run impact of money on growth when credit is not readily available, supporting the precautionary motive for holding money. Finally, money is found to have no effect on output growth in the long-run.

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    File URL: http://www.bankofcanada.ca/wp-content/uploads/2012/10/wp2012-33.pdf
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    Bibliographic Info

    Paper provided by Bank of Canada in its series Working Papers with number 12-33.

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    Length: 44 pages
    Date of creation: 2012
    Date of revision:
    Handle: RePEc:bca:bocawp:12-33

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    Postal: 234 Wellington Street, Ottawa, Ontario, K1A 0G9, Canada
    Phone: 613 782-8845
    Fax: 613 782-8874
    Web page: http://www.bank-banque-canada.ca/

    Related research

    Keywords: Monetary aggregates; Credit and credit aggregates; Business fluctuations and cycles;

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    References

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    1. Irina A. Telyukova & Randall Wright, 2008. "A Model of Money and Credit, with Application to the Credit Card Debt Puzzle," Review of Economic Studies, Oxford University Press, vol. 75(2), pages 629-647.
    2. Benjamin M. Friedman & Kenneth N. Kuttner, 1991. "Another Look at the Evidence on Money-Income Causality," NBER Working Papers 3856, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    3. Stock, James H. & Watson, Mark W., 1989. "Interpreting the evidence on money-income causality," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 40(1), pages 161-181, January.
    4. Favara, Giovanni & Giordani, Paolo, 2002. "Reconsidering the Role of Money for Output, Prices and Interest Rates," Working Paper Series in Economics and Finance 514, Stockholm School of Economics.
    5. Psaradakis, Zacharias & Ravn, Morten O. & Sola, Martin, 2003. "Markov Switching Causality and the Money-Output Relationship," CEPR Discussion Papers 3803, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
    6. Christopher A. Sims & Tao Zha, 2005. "Were There Regime Switches in U.S. Monetary Policy?," Working Papers 92, Princeton University, Department of Economics, Center for Economic Policy Studies..
    7. Maral Kichian, 2001. "On the Nature and the Stability of the Canadian Phillips Curve," Working Papers 01-4, Bank of Canada.
    8. Vilasuso, Jon, 2000. " Trend Breaks in Money Growth and the Money-Output Relation in the U.S," Oxford Bulletin of Economics and Statistics, Department of Economics, University of Oxford, vol. 62(1), pages 53-60, February.
    9. Barry Cozier & Greg Tkacz, 1994. "The Term Structure and Real Activity in Canada," Macroeconomics 9406001, EconWPA, revised 23 Jun 1994.
    10. Robert King & Mark W. Watson, 1992. "Testing Long Run Neutrality," NBER Working Papers 4156, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    11. Boivin, Jean & Kiley, Michael T. & Mishkin, Frederic S., 2010. "How Has the Monetary Transmission Mechanism Evolved Over Time?," Handbook of Monetary Economics, in: Benjamin M. Friedman & Michael Woodford (ed.), Handbook of Monetary Economics, edition 1, volume 3, chapter 8, pages 369-422 Elsevier.
    12. CĂ©line Gauthier & Fu Chun Li, 2006. "Linking Real Activity and Financial Markets: The Bonds, Equity, and Money (BEAM) Model," Working Papers 06-42, Bank of Canada.
    13. Karel Mertens, 2006. "How the Removal of Deposit Rate Ceilings Has Changed Monetary Transmission in the US: Theory and Evidence," Economics Working Papers ECO2006/34, European University Institute.
    14. Tracy Chan & Ramdane Djoudad & Jackson Loi, 2006. "Regime Shifts in the Indicator Properties of Narrow Money in Canada," Working Papers 06-6, Bank of Canada.
    15. Thoma, Mark A., 1994. "Subsample instability and asymmetries in money-income causality," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 64(1-2), pages 279-306.
    16. Scott Hendry & Charleen Adam, 2001. "The M1 Vector-Error-Correction Model: some Extensions and Applications," Money Affairs, Centro de Estudios Monetarios Latinoamericanos, vol. 0(2), pages 145-175, July-Dece.
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