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Linking Real Activity and Financial Markets: The Bonds, Equity, and Money (BEAM) Model

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Author Info
Céline Gauthier
Fu Chun Li
Abstract

The authors estimate a small monthly macroeconometric model (BEAM, for bonds, equity, and money) of the Canadian economy built around three cointegrating relationships linking financial and real variables over the 1975–2002 period. One of the cointegrating relationships allows the identification of a supply shock as the only shock that permanently affects the stock market, and a demand shock that leads to important transitory stock market overvaluation. The authors propose a monetary policy reaction function in which the impact of a permanent inflation shock on the overnight rate is simulated and the future path of the overnight rate adjusted accordingly, to prevent any forecast persistent deviation from the inflation target. They introduce a technical innovation by showing under which conditions permanent shocks can be identified in a vector error-correction model with exogenous variables.

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Paper provided by Bank of Canada in its series Working Papers with number 06-42.

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Length: 43 pages
Date of creation: 2006
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Handle: RePEc:bca:bocawp:06-42

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Related research
Keywords: Financial markets; Financial stability;

Find related papers by JEL classification:
C5 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Econometric Modeling
E4 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Money and Interest Rates

This paper has been announced in the following NEP Reports:

References listed on IDEAS
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  1. Céline Gauthier & Christopher Graham & Ying Liu, 2004. "Financial Conditions Indexes for Canada," Working Papers 04-22, Bank of Canada. [Downloadable!]
  2. Shamik Dhar & Darren Pain & Ryland Thomas, . "A small structural empirical model of the UK monetary transmission mechanism," Bank of England working papers 113, Bank of England. [Downloadable!]
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    Other versions:
  4. Pesaran, M. Hashem & Shin, Yongcheol & Smith, Richard J., 2000. "Structural analysis of vector error correction models with exogenous I(1) variables," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 97(2), pages 293-343, August. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
    Other versions:
  5. David Longworth, 2003. "Money in the Bank (of Canada)," Technical Reports 93, Bank of Canada. [Downloadable!]
  6. Lutz Kilian & Mark P. Taylor, 2001. "Why is it so difficult to beat the random walk forecast of exchange rates," Working Paper Series 088, European Central Bank. [Downloadable!]
    Other versions:
  7. Robert G. King & Charles I. Plosser & James H. Stock & Mark W. Watson, 1991. "Stochastic trends and economic fluctuations," Working Paper Series, Macroeconomic Issues 91-4, Federal Reserve Bank of Chicago.
    Other versions:
  8. Celine Gauthier & David Tessier, 2002. "Supply Shocks and Real Exchange Rate Dynamics: Canadian Evidence," Working Papers 02-31, Bank of Canada. [Downloadable!]
  9. Halbert White, 2000. "A Reality Check for Data Snooping," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 68(5), pages 1097-1126, September.
  10. Rapach, David E, 2003. " International Evidence on the Long-Run Impact of Inflation," Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 35(1), pages 23-48, February.
  11. Yang, Minxian, 1998. "On identifying permanent and transitory shocks in VAR models," Economics Letters, Elsevier, vol. 58(2), pages 171-175, February. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  12. Timothy Cogley & Thomas Sargent, . "Evolving Post-World War II U.S. Inflation Dynamics," Working Papers 2132872, Department of Economics, W. P. Carey School of Business, Arizona State University. [Downloadable!]
    Other versions:
  13. Johansen, Soren, 1992. "Cointegration in partial systems and the efficiency of single-equation analysis," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 52(3), pages 389-402, June. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  14. Blanchard, Olivier Jean & Quah, Danny, 1989. "The Dynamic Effects of Aggregate Demand and Supply Disturbances," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 79(4), pages 655-73, September. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
    Other versions:
  15. Michael R. Wickens & Roberto Motto, 2001. "Estimating shocks and impulse response functions," Journal of Applied Econometrics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 16(3), pages 371-387. [Downloadable!]
  16. Tor Jacobson & Per Jansson & Anders Vredin & Anders Warne, 2001. "Monetary policy analysis and inflation targeting in a small open economy: a VAR approach," Journal of Applied Econometrics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 16(4), pages 487-520. [Downloadable!]
  17. Andrew Atkeson & Lee E. Ohanian., 2001. "Are Phillips curves useful for forecasting inflation?," Quarterly Review, Federal Reserve Bank of Minneapolis, issue Win, pages 2-11. [Downloadable!]
  18. Wickens, Michael R., 1996. "Interpreting cointegrating vectors and common stochastic trends," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 74(2), pages 255-271, October. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  19. Blanchard, Olivier J, 1981. "Output, the Stock Market, and Interest Rates," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 71(1), pages 132-43, March. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  20. Günter Coenen, 2003. "Inflation persistence and robust monetary policy design," Working Paper Series 290, European Central Bank. [Downloadable!]
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  21. Lutkepohl, Helmut & Reimers, Hans-Eggert, 1992. "Impulse response analysis of cointegrated systems," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 16(1), pages 53-78, January. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  22. Ignazio Angeloni & Günter Coenen & Frank Smets, 2003. "Persistence, the transmission mechanism and robust monetary policy," Working Paper Series 250, European Central Bank. [Downloadable!]
    Other versions:
  23. Katarina Juselius & David F. Hendry, 2000. "Explaining Cointegration Analysis: Part II," Discussion Papers 00-20, University of Copenhagen. Department of Economics. [Downloadable!]
    Other versions:
  24. Ploberger, Werner & Kramer, Walter & Kontrus, Karl, 1989. "A new test for structural stability in the linear regression model," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 40(2), pages 307-318, February. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  25. Nuno Cassola & Claudio Morana, 2002. "Monetary policy and the stock market in the Euro area," Working Paper Series 119, European Central Bank. [Downloadable!]
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