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The End of Moderate Inflation in Three Transition Economies?

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  • Josef Brada
  • Ali Kutan

Abstract

Although the rate of inflation has declined in the more advanced transition economies such as the Czech Republic, Poland, and Hungary, it continues at moderate rates that are sufficiently high by regional standards to pose economic problems for these countries. In this paper, we examine the reasons for the persistence of this moderate inflation including passive fiscal policies, inappropriate exchange rate policies, and weak mechanisms for the transmission of monetary policy. We also use econometric methods to determine the causes of inflation. The persistence of inflationary expectations and the nominal exchange rate are found to play a much more significant role in the persistence of inflation than do monetary policy and nominal wage growth. These findings suggest that the role of monetary policy in halting inflation is limited at best.

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Bibliographic Info

Paper provided by William Davidson Institute at the University of Michigan in its series William Davidson Institute Working Papers Series with number 230.

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Length: pages
Date of creation: 01 Apr 1999
Date of revision:
Handle: RePEc:wdi:papers:1999-230

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References

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Citations

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Cited by:
  1. Komulainen, Tuomas & Pirttilä, Jukka, 2000. "Fiscal Explanations for Inflation: Any Evidence from Transition Economies?," BOFIT Discussion Papers 11/2000, Bank of Finland, Institute for Economies in Transition.
  2. Dibooglu, Sel & Kutan, Ali M., 2005. "Sources of inflation and output movements in Poland and Hungary: Policy implications for accession to the economic and monetary union," Journal of Macroeconomics, Elsevier, vol. 27(1), pages 107-131, March.
  3. Kim, Byung-Yeon, 2001. "Determinants of Inflation in Poland: A Structural Cointegration Approach," BOFIT Discussion Papers 16/2001, Bank of Finland, Institute for Economies in Transition.
  4. Dvorsky, Sandra, 2000. "Measuring Central Bank Independence in Selected Transition Countries and the Disinflation Process," BOFIT Discussion Papers 13/2000, Bank of Finland, Institute for Economies in Transition.
  5. Dibooglu, Selahattin & Kutan, Ali M., 2000. "Sources of real exchange rate fluctuations in transition economies: The case of Ploand and Hungary," ZEI Working Papers B 14-2000, ZEI - Center for European Integration Studies, University of Bonn.
  6. Payne, James E., 2002. "Inflationary dynamics of a transition economy: the Croatian experience," Journal of Policy Modeling, Elsevier, vol. 24(3), pages 219-230, June.
  7. Ekaterina VOSTROKNUTOVA, 2003. "Polish Stabilization: What Can We Learn From the I (2) Cointegration Analysis," Economics Working Papers ECO2003/06, European University Institute.
  8. Golinelli, Roberto & Rovelli, Riccardo, 2005. "Monetary policy transmission, interest rate rules and inflation targeting in three transition countries," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 29(1), pages 183-201, January.
  9. Mikek, Peter, 2008. "Alternative monetary policies and fiscal regime in new EU members," Economic Systems, Elsevier, vol. 32(4), pages 335-353, December.
  10. Kim, Byung-Yeon & Pirttilä, Jukka & Rautava, Jouko, 2001. "Money, Barter and Inflation in Russia," BOFIT Discussion Papers 15/2001, Bank of Finland, Institute for Economies in Transition.
  11. Dibooglu, Selahattin & Kutan, Ali M., 2001. "Sources of inflation and output fluctuations in Poland and Hungary: Implications for full membership in the European Union," ZEI Working Papers B 16-2001, ZEI - Center for European Integration Studies, University of Bonn.
  12. Boriss Siliverstovs & Olena Bilan, 2006. "Modeling Inflation Dynamics in Transition Economies: The Case of Ukraine," Eastern European Economics, M.E. Sharpe, Inc., vol. 43(6), pages 66-81, December.
  13. Peter Backé & Jarko Fidrmuc & Thomas Reininger & Franz Schardax, 2002. "Price Dynamics in Central and Eastern European EU Accession," Working Papers 61, Oesterreichische Nationalbank (Austrian Central Bank).
  14. Wachtel, Paul & Korhonen, Iikka, 2004. "Observations on disinflation in transition economies," BOFIT Discussion Papers 5/2004, Bank of Finland, Institute for Economies in Transition.
  15. repec:onb:oenbwp:y::i:61:b:1 is not listed on IDEAS

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