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Polish Stabilization: What Can We Learn From the I (2) Cointegration Analysis

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  • Ekaterina VOSTROKNUTOVA

Abstract

This paper is part of a larger project that questions the common notion of similarity in the Polish and Russian stabilization programs, which clearly brought about different results. It investigates an array of nominal systems for the Polish economy, of domestic price level, import prices, exchange rates, money stock, nominal wages, and real output, and conducts I(1) and I(2) cointegration analyses. Post-stabilization monthly data are used, 1991:5-1999:12. A test for the presence of a price-wage spiral is performed, and the stabilization package is compared to its realization. The long-run homogeneity hypothesis, the impact of monetary and incomes policies, and of external sector variables on long and medium run price development are studied. It is found that in Poland, contrary to some earlier studies, the external sector is not important for the long run price development. On the contrary, very strong evidence is found of the cost-push inflation. These results are very different from the Russian rience, where inflation has had mostly monetary roots. The paper concludes with a comparative policy analysis.

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Bibliographic Info

Paper provided by European University Institute in its series Economics Working Papers with number ECO2003/06.

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Date of creation: 2003
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Handle: RePEc:eui:euiwps:eco2003/06

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Keywords: cointegration; monetary policy; incomes policy;

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  1. Frye, Timothy & Shleifer, Andrei, 1997. "The Invisible Hand and the Grabbing Hand," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 87(2), pages 354-58, May.
  2. Clara Jørgensen & Hans Christian Kongsted & Anders Rahbek, 1996. "Trend-Stationarity in the I(2) Cointegration Model," Discussion Papers 96-12, University of Copenhagen. Department of Economics.
  3. Josef C. Brada & Ali M. Kutan, 2002. "The End of Moderate Inflation in Three Transition Economies?," William Davidson Institute Working Papers Series 433, William Davidson Institute at the University of Michigan.
  4. Dibooglu, Selahattin & Kutan, Ali M., 2000. "Sources of real exchange rate fluctuations in transition economies: The case of Ploand and Hungary," ZEI Working Papers B 14-2000, ZEI - Center for European Integration Studies, University of Bonn.
  5. Peter Doyle & Peter F. Christoffersen, 1998. "From Inflation to Growth," IMF Working Papers 98/100, International Monetary Fund.
  6. Stanley Fischer & Ratna Sahay, 2000. "The Transition Economies After Ten Years," IMF Working Papers 00/30, International Monetary Fund.
  7. Kim, Byung-Yeon, 2001. "Determinants of Inflation in Poland: A Structural Cointegration Approach," BOFIT Discussion Papers 16/2001, Bank of Finland, Institute for Economies in Transition.
  8. Juselius, Katarina, 1992. "Domestic and foreign effects on prices in an open economy: The case of Denmark," Journal of Policy Modeling, Elsevier, vol. 14(4), pages 401-428, August.
  9. Ratna Sahay & Jeromin Zettelmeyer & Eduardo Borensztein & Andrew Berg, 1999. "The Evolution of Output in Transition Economies," IMF Working Papers 99/73, International Monetary Fund.
  10. Enev, Tihomir & Koford, Kenneth, 2000. " The Effect of Incomes Policies on Inflation in Bulgaria and Poland," Economic Change and Restructuring, Springer, vol. 33(3), pages 141-69.
  11. Nikolic, Milan, 2000. "Money Growth-Inflation Relationship in Postcommunist Russia," Journal of Comparative Economics, Elsevier, vol. 28(1), pages 108-133, March.
  12. Paruolo, Paolo & Rahbek, Anders, 1999. "Weak exogeneity in I(2) VAR systems," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 93(2), pages 281-308, December.
  13. Peter Christoffersen & Torsten Sløk & Robert Wescott, 2001. "Is inflation targeting feasible in Poland?," The Economics of Transition, The European Bank for Reconstruction and Development, vol. 9(1), pages 153-174, March.
  14. Dominique Desruelle & Alessandro Zanello, 1997. "A Primeron the IMF's Information Notice System," IMF Working Papers 97/71, International Monetary Fund.
  15. Desai, Padma, 1998. "Macroeconomic Fragility and Exchange Rate Vulnerability: A Cautionary Record of Transition Economies," Journal of Comparative Economics, Elsevier, vol. 26(4), pages 621-641, December.
  16. Stanley Fischer & Ratna Sahay, 2000. "The Transition Economies After Ten Years," NBER Working Papers 7664, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
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Cited by:
  1. Jérôme Creel* & Sandrine Levasseur, 2007. "Monetary Policy Transmission Mechanisms in the CEECs: How Important are the Differences with the Euro Area?," The IUP Journal of Monetary Economics, IUP Publications, vol. 0(1), pages 30-59, February.
  2. repec:spo:wpecon:info:hdl:2441/2976 is not listed on IDEAS

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