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A small macro econometric model for Kazakhstan: a retrospective of alternative economic policies undertaken during the transition process

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  • Gilles Dufrénot

    (DEFI - Centre de recherche en développement économique et finance internationale - Faculté des Sciences Economiques - Université de la Méditerranée - Aix-Marseille II, CEPII - Centre d'Etudes Prospectives et d'Informations Internationales - Centre d'analyse stratégique, Centre de recherche de la Banque de France - Banque de France)

  • Adelya Ospanova

    (Aix-Marseille Université - Aix-Marseille Université)

  • Alain Sand-Zantman

    ()
    (GATE Lyon Saint-Étienne - Groupe d'analyse et de théorie économique - CNRS : UMR5824 - Université Lumière - Lyon II - École Normale Supérieure (ENS) - Lyon - PRES Université de Lyon)

Abstract

This paper presents a quarterly macro econometric model of the Kazakhstan. The main goal is to provide a stylized representation of the Kazakh economy in order to simulate the consequences of several economic policies viewed by the authorities as essential during the period of transition to a market economy. The policy simulation potential of the model is illustrated by five types of simulations : interest rate shocks, foreign direct investment shocks, world oil price shocks, foreign demand shocks and nominal wages shocks. These sets of simulations show the importance of foreign direct investments in terms of theirs global positive effect, as well as the demand effect of an increase in the wages. We also find that effect of the tight monetary policy in not ambiguous ; we argue that in some cases it is not the most efficient policy instrument to sustain the economy.

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Paper provided by HAL in its series Working Papers with number halshs-00926223.

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Date of creation: 09 Jan 2014
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Handle: RePEc:hal:wpaper:halshs-00926223

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Keywords: Transition economies; Kazakhstan; Macroeconomic stabilization; Central Asian CIS countries;

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  1. M. Hashem Pesaran & Yongcheol Shin & Richard J. Smith, 2001. "Bounds testing approaches to the analysis of level relationships," Journal of Applied Econometrics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 16(3), pages 289-326.
  2. Stanley Fischer & Ratna Sahay, 2000. "The Transition Economies After Ten Years," IMF Working Papers 00/30, International Monetary Fund.
  3. Stanley Fischer & Ratna Sahay, 2000. "The Transition Economies After Ten Years," NBER Working Papers 7664, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  4. E. Tandberg & S. Ramamurthy, 2002. "Treasury Reform in Kazakhstan," IMF Working Papers 02/129, International Monetary Fund.
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