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Ten Years of Transformation: Macroeconomic Lessons

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  • Wyplosz, Charles

Abstract

Transition was never going to be easy, even if the long-run outlook is highly promising. Not only was the process itself a major theoretical and policy challenge but, inevitably, politics and economics were bound to interfere. With some spectacular exceptions, most countries are now on the right track. With hindsight, the old debate, Big Bang vs. gradualism, is more a question of feasibility even though many of the arguments in favor of Big Bang have now been proven right. Once more inflation has been found to be incompatible with growth and the importance of a good microeconomic structure - especially an effective banking system - is confirmed. The choice of an exchange rate regime, another of the early controversies, appears as secondary to the adherence of a strict monetary policy. The decline of the state is both spectacular and puzzling, combining desirable and dangerous features.

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Bibliographic Info

Paper provided by C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers in its series CEPR Discussion Papers with number 2254.

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Date of creation: Mar 2000
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Handle: RePEc:cpr:ceprdp:2254

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Keywords: Banking; Exchange Rate Regime; Liberalization; Sequencing; Transition;

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References

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Citations

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Cited by:
  1. Ichiro Iwasaki, 2003. "Evolution of the Government–Business Relationship and Economic Performance in the Former Soviet States – Order State, Rescue State, Punish State," Economic Change and Restructuring, Springer, vol. 36(3), pages 223-257, September.
  2. Neven T. Valev & John A. Carlson, 2003. "Tenuous Financial Stability," William Davidson Institute Working Papers Series 540, William Davidson Institute at the University of Michigan.
  3. Barlow, David, 2010. "How did structural reform influence inflation in transition economies?," Economic Systems, Elsevier, vol. 34(2), pages 198-210, June.
  4. Sándor Valkovszky & János Vincze, 2000. "Estimates of and Problems with Core Inflation in Hungary," MNB Working Papers 2000/2, Magyar Nemzeti Bank (the central bank of Hungary).
  5. Altar, Moisa & Albu, Lucian Liviu & Dumitru, Ionut & Necula, Ciprian, 2009. "Estimation of Equilibrium Real Exchange Rate and of Deviations for Romania," Working Papers of National Institute of Economic Research 090105, National Institute of Economic Research.
  6. Facchini, Giovanni & Segnana, Maria Luigia, 2003. "Growth at the EU periphery: the next enlargement," The Quarterly Review of Economics and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 43(5), pages 827-862.
  7. Andrea Brasili & Bruno Sitzia, 2003. "Risk Related Non Linearities in Exchange Rates: Evidence from a Panel of Central and Eastern European Countries," Open Economies Review, Springer, vol. 14(2), pages 135-155, April.
  8. Alex Segura-Ubiergo & Alejandro Simone & Sanjeev Gupta & Qiang Cui, 2010. "New Evidence on Fiscal Adjustment and Growth in Transition Economies," Comparative Economic Studies, Palgrave Macmillan, vol. 52(1), pages 18-37, March.
  9. Robert Pye, 2005. "The Evolution of Financial Services in Transition Economies: An Overview of the Insurance Sector," Post-Communist Economies, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 17(2), pages 205-223.
  10. Gillman, Max & Nakov, Anton, 2005. "Granger Causality of the Inflation-Growth Mirror in Accession Countries," CEPR Discussion Papers 4845, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
  11. Alain Sand, 2005. "Structural reforms, macroeconomic policies and the future of Kazakhstan," Working Papers 0411, Groupe d'Analyse et de Théorie Economique (GATE), Centre national de la recherche scientifique (CNRS), Université Lyon 2, Ecole Normale Supérieure.
  12. Robert B.K. Pye, 2000. "The Evolution of the Insurance Sector in Central and Eastern Europe and the Former Soviet Union," William Davidson Institute Working Papers Series 336, William Davidson Institute at the University of Michigan.
  13. Gilles Dufrenot & Alain Sand-Zantman, 2004. "Structural reforms, macroeconomic policies and the future of Kazakhstan economy," Documents de Travail de l'OFCE 2004-11, Observatoire Francais des Conjonctures Economiques (OFCE).
  14. Maria Piotrowska, 2001. "Macroeconomic shocks across Central European Countries," ERSA conference papers ersa01p147, European Regional Science Association.

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