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The Real Exchange Rate in Transition Economies

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  • C Grafe
  • C Wyplosz

Abstract

Real exchange rates appear to present a specific behaviour in the early phase of transition: they are largely unaffected by nominal exchange rate movements and exibit trend appreciation. The model presented here describes the transition process as the emergence of two new (traded and non-traded good) sectors and the decline of an inefficient and subsidised state sector. The absence of financial markets means that firms accumulate capital through retained earnings. Labour markets are imperfect giving rise to a wage gap. The model shows that the real exchange rate plays the crucial role of determining real wages. Through real wages it sets the pace for the development of the new sectors as workers are attracted out of the state sector. The link between growth and real appreciation differs from the usual Balassa Samuelson effect. The paper also explores the role of labour market distortions and foreign financing.

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Paper provided by Centre for Economic Performance, LSE in its series CEP Discussion Papers with number dp0395.

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Date of creation: Jul 1998
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Handle: RePEc:cep:cepdps:dp0395

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  1. Atkeson, Andrew & Kehoe, Patrick J, 1996. "Social Insurance and Transition," International Economic Review, Department of Economics, University of Pennsylvania and Osaka University Institute of Social and Economic Research Association, vol. 37(2), pages 377-401, May.
  2. Cornelli, Francesca & Portes, Richard & Schaffer, Mark E, 1996. "The Capital Structure of Firms in Central and Eastern Europe," CEPR Discussion Papers 1392, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
  3. Castanheira, Micael & Roland, Gérard, 1996. "Restructuring and Capital Accumulation in Transition Economies: A General Equilibrium Perspective," CEPR Discussion Papers 1372, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
  4. Philippe Aghion & Olivier J. Blanchard, 1994. "On the Speed of Transition in Central Europe," NBER Chapters, in: NBER Macroeconomics Annual 1994, Volume 9, pages 283-330 National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  5. Philippe Aghion & Olivier Jean Blanchard, 1994. "On the Speed of Transition Central Europe," NBER Working Papers 4736, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  6. Burda, Michael C, 1992. "Unemployment, Labour Market Institutions and Structural Change in Eastern Europe," CEPR Discussion Papers 746, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
  7. Lionel Halpern & Charles Wyplosz, 1996. "Equilibrium Exchange Rates in Transition Economies," IMF Working Papers 96/125, International Monetary Fund.
  8. Bela Balassa, 1964. "The Purchasing-Power Parity Doctrine: A Reappraisal," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 72, pages 584.
  9. Maurice Obstfeld & Kenneth S. Rogoff, 1996. "Foundations of International Macroeconomics," MIT Press Books, The MIT Press, edition 1, volume 1, number 0262150476, December.
  10. J. Konings & H. Lehmann & M.E. Schaffer, 1996. "Job Creation and Job Destruction in a Transition Economy: Ownership, Firm Size," CERT Discussion Papers 9611, Centre for Economic Reform and Transformation, Heriot Watt University.
  11. Carlos A. Végh Gramont & Ratna Sahay & Guillermo Calvo, 1995. "Capital Flows in Central and Eastern Europe," IMF Working Papers 95/57, International Monetary Fund.
  12. Akerlof, George A, 1970. "The Market for 'Lemons': Quality Uncertainty and the Market Mechanism," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, MIT Press, vol. 84(3), pages 488-500, August.
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Cited by:
  1. Camille Baulant & Virginie Coudert & Michel Aglietta, 1999. "Compétitivité et régime de change en Europe centrale," Revue économique, Presses de Sciences-Po, vol. 0(6), pages 1221-1236.
  2. Ca' Zorzi, Michele & De Santis, Roberto A., 2003. "The admission of accession countries to an enlarged monetary union: a tentative assessment," Working Paper Series 0216, European Central Bank.
  3. Manzocchi, Stefano & Ottaviano, Gianmarco Ireo Paolo, 2000. "Outsiders In Economic Integration: The Case of a Transition Economy," CEPR Discussion Papers 2385, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
  4. Jozef M. Van Brabant, 2001. "Exchange-rate policy in eastern Europe and EU integration," BNL Quarterly Review, Banca Nazionale del Lavoro, vol. 54(218), pages 219-248.
  5. Coricelli, Fabrizio & Jazbec, Bostjan, 2001. "Real Exchange Rate Dynamics in Transition Economies," CEPR Discussion Papers 2869, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
  6. Wyplosz, Charles, 2000. "Ten Years of Transformation: Macroeconomic Lessons," CEPR Discussion Papers 2254, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
  7. Fardmanesh, Mohsen & Tan, Li, 2003. "Wage and price control policies in transition economies," Journal of Development Economics, Elsevier, vol. 70(1), pages 173-200, February.
  8. Karsten Staehr, 2010. "Income convergence and inflation in Central and Eastern Europe : does the sun always rise in the East," Bank of Estonia Working Papers wp2010-04, Bank of Estonia, revised 22 Mar 2010.
  9. Tomasz Mickiewicz & Anna Zalewska, 2002. "Deindustrialisation. Lessons from the StructuralOutcomes of Post-Communist Transition," William Davidson Institute Working Papers Series 463, William Davidson Institute at the University of Michigan.
  10. Lukasz Rawdanowicz, 2003. "The EMU Enlargement and the Choice of the Euro Conversion Rates: Theoretical and Empirical Issues," CASE Network Studies and Analyses 0269, CASE-Center for Social and Economic Research.
  11. Dumitru, Ionut, 2008. "Efectul Balassa-Samuelson in Romania
    [Balassa-Samuelson effect in Romania]
    ," MPRA Paper 18611, University Library of Munich, Germany.
  12. Francois Gurtner, 2002. "Currency Board and Debt Trap: Evidence from Argentina and Relevance for Estonia," CERT Discussion Papers 0204, Centre for Economic Reform and Transformation, Heriot Watt University.
  13. Jozef M. Van Brabant, 2001. "Exchange-rate policy in eastern Europe and EU integration," Banca Nazionale del Lavoro Quarterly Review, Banca Nazionale del Lavoro, vol. 54(218), pages 219-248.
  14. Andrea Brasili & Bruno Sitzia, 2003. "Risk Related Non Linearities in Exchange Rates: Evidence from a Panel of Central and Eastern European Countries," Open Economies Review, Springer, vol. 14(2), pages 135-155, April.
  15. Charles Wyplosz & David Begg, 2001. "Untied Hands are Fundamentally Better," Revue d'Économie Financière, Programme National Persée, vol. 6(1), pages 319-344.
  16. Charles Wyplosz & David Begg, 2001. "Il est toujours préférable d’avoir les mains libres," Revue d'Économie Financière, Programme National Persée, vol. 6(1), pages 349-380.

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