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The Real Exchange Rate in Transition Economies

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  • Grafe, Clemens
  • Wyplosz, Charles

Abstract

Real exchange rates appear to present a specific behaviour in the early phase of transition: they are largely unaffected by nominal exchange rate movements and exhibit trend appreciation. The model presented here describes the transition process as the emergence of two new (traded and non-traded good) sectors and the decline of an inefficient and subsidized state sector. The absence of financial markets means that firms accumulate capital through retained earnings. Labour markets are imperfect giving rise to a wage gap. The model shows that the real exchange plays the crucial role of determining real wages. Through real wages it sets the pace for the development of the new sectors as workers are attracted out of the state sector. The link between growth and real appreciation differs from the usual Balassa-Samuelson effect. The paper also explores the role of labour market distortions and foreign financing.

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Bibliographic Info

Paper provided by C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers in its series CEPR Discussion Papers with number 1773.

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Date of creation: Dec 1997
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Handle: RePEc:cpr:ceprdp:1773

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Keywords: foreign financing; Real Exchange Rate; Transition; Wage Gap;

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References

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  1. Atkeson, Andrew & Kehoe, Patrick J, 1996. "Social Insurance and Transition," International Economic Review, Department of Economics, University of Pennsylvania and Osaka University Institute of Social and Economic Research Association, vol. 37(2), pages 377-401, May.
  2. Lionel Halpern & Charles Wyplosz, 1996. "Equilibrium Exchange Rates in Transition Economies," IMF Working Papers 96/125, International Monetary Fund.
  3. Philippe Aghion & Olivier Jean Blanchard, 1994. "On the Speed of Transition Central Europe," NBER Working Papers 4736, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  4. Cornelli, F. & Portes, R. & Schaffer, M., 1996. "The Capital Structure of Firms in Central and Eastern Europe," DELTA Working Papers 96-05, DELTA (Ecole normale supérieure).
  5. Philippe Aghion & Olivier J. Blanchard, 1994. "On the Speed of Transition in Central Europe," NBER Chapters, in: NBER Macroeconomics Annual 1994, Volume 9, pages 283-330 National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  6. Akerlof, George A, 1970. "The Market for 'Lemons': Quality Uncertainty and the Market Mechanism," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, MIT Press, vol. 84(3), pages 488-500, August.
  7. Carlos A. Végh Gramont & Ratna Sahay & Guillermo Calvo, 1995. "Capital Flows in Central and Eastern Europe," IMF Working Papers 95/57, International Monetary Fund.
  8. Maurice Obstfeld & Kenneth S. Rogoff, 1996. "Foundations of International Macroeconomics," MIT Press Books, The MIT Press, edition 1, volume 1, number 0262150476, December.
  9. Castanheira, Micael & Roland, Gérard, 1996. "Restructuring and Capital Accumulation in Transition Economies: A General Equilibrium Perspective," CEPR Discussion Papers 1372, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
  10. J. Konings & H. Lehmann & M.E. Schaffer, 1996. "Job Creation and Job Destruction in a Transition Economy: Ownership, Firm Size," CERT Discussion Papers 9611, Centre for Economic Reform and Transformation, Heriot Watt University.
  11. Burda, Michael C, 1992. "Unemployment, Labour Market Institutions and Structural Change in Eastern Europe," CEPR Discussion Papers 746, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
  12. Bela Balassa, 1964. "The Purchasing-Power Parity Doctrine: A Reappraisal," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 72, pages 584.
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Citations

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Cited by:
  1. Coricelli, Fabrizio & Jazbec, Bostjan, 2001. "Real Exchange Rate Dynamics in Transition Economies," CEPR Discussion Papers 2869, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
  2. Andrea Brasili & Bruno Sitzia, 2003. "Risk Related Non Linearities in Exchange Rates: Evidence from a Panel of Central and Eastern European Countries," Open Economies Review, Springer, vol. 14(2), pages 135-155, April.
  3. Jozef M. Van Brabant, 2001. "Exchange-rate policy in eastern Europe and EU integration," BNL Quarterly Review, Banca Nazionale del Lavoro, vol. 54(218), pages 219-248.
  4. Wyplosz, Charles, 2000. "Ten years of transformation - macroeconomic lessons," Policy Research Working Paper Series 2288, The World Bank.
  5. Francois Gurtner, 2002. "Currency Board and Debt Trap: Evidence from Argentina and Relevance for Estonia," CERT Discussion Papers 0204, Centre for Economic Reform and Transformation, Heriot Watt University.
  6. Michel Aglietta & Camille Baulant & Virginie Coudert, 1998. "Compétitivité et régime de change en Europe Centrale," Working Papers 1998-10, CEPII research center.
  7. Ca' Zorzi, Michele & De Santis, Roberto A., 2003. "The admission of accession countries to an enlarged monetary union: a tentative assessment," Working Paper Series 0216, European Central Bank.
  8. Dumitru, Ionut, 2008. "Efectul Balassa-Samuelson in Romania
    [Balassa-Samuelson effect in Romania]
    ," MPRA Paper 18611, University Library of Munich, Germany.
  9. Manzocchi, Stefano & Ottaviano, Gianmarco Ireo Paolo, 2000. "Outsiders In Economic Integration: The Case of a Transition Economy," CEPR Discussion Papers 2385, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
  10. Jozef M. Van Brabant, 2001. "Exchange-rate policy in eastern Europe and EU integration," Banca Nazionale del Lavoro Quarterly Review, Banca Nazionale del Lavoro, vol. 54(218), pages 219-248.
  11. Karsten Staehr, 2010. "Income convergence and inflation in Central and Eastern Europe : does the sun always rise in the East," Bank of Estonia Working Papers wp2010-04, Bank of Estonia, revised 22 Mar 2010.
  12. Charles Wyplosz & David Begg, 2001. "Untied Hands are Fundamentally Better," Revue d'Économie Financière, Programme National Persée, vol. 6(1), pages 319-344.
  13. Tomasz Mickiewicz & Anna Zalewska, 2002. "Deindustrialisation. Lessons from the StructuralOutcomes of Post-Communist Transition," William Davidson Institute Working Papers Series 463, William Davidson Institute at the University of Michigan.
  14. Lukasz Rawdanowicz, 2003. "The EMU Enlargement and the Choice of the Euro Conversion Rates: Theoretical and Empirical Issues," CASE Network Studies and Analyses 0269, CASE-Center for Social and Economic Research.
  15. Fardmanesh, Mohsen & Tan, Li, 2003. "Wage and price control policies in transition economies," Journal of Development Economics, Elsevier, vol. 70(1), pages 173-200, February.
  16. Charles Wyplosz & David Begg, 2001. "Il est toujours préférable d’avoir les mains libres," Revue d'Économie Financière, Programme National Persée, vol. 6(1), pages 349-380.

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