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Monetary policy transmission mechanisms in the CEECs: How important are the differences with the euro area?

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Abstract

We use a structural VAR model with short-term restrictions to investigate the relative importance of interest rate, exchange rate and credit channels in the monetary policy transmission (MPT) for the Czech Republic, Hungary and Poland over 1993:1-2004:3. Main results are as follows. First, in the three countries, following a positive shock on the interest rate, prices increase instead of decreasing, due to the immediate depreciation of the nominal exchange rate. The results thus exhibit an "exchange rate" puzzle conducing to the appearance of a "price-puzzle". Second, none channel is very powerful for the MPT in the three countries. Nevertheless, the exchange rate and the interest rate channels play a growing role over the recent period in Poland, compared with the same channels in the Czech Republic and Hungary. As nominal exchange rate fluctuations allow for greater real shocks dampening in Poland, the cost of entering EMU may be more costly for this country than for the Czech Republic or Hungary.

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Paper provided by Observatoire Francais des Conjonctures Economiques (OFCE) in its series Documents de Travail de l'OFCE with number 2005-02.

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Date of creation: 2005
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Handle: RePEc:fce:doctra:0502

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Keywords: monetary policy transmission; VAR models; exchange rate regimes;

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References

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  1. Ben Bernanke, 1990. "The Federal Funds Rate and the Channels of Monetary Transnission," NBER Working Papers 3487, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  2. Giordani, Paolo, 2001. "An Alternative Explanation of the Price Puzzle," Working Paper Series 125, Sveriges Riksbank (Central Bank of Sweden).
  3. Jérôme Creel & Sandrine Levasseur, 2004. "How would a Fixed-Exchange-Rate Regime Fit the Transition Economies? The cases of the Czech Republic, Hungary and Poland," Sciences Po publications info:hdl:2441/3083, Sciences Po.
  4. Stephen G. Cecchetti, 1999. "Legal structure, financial structure, and the monetary policy transmission mechanism," Economic Policy Review, Federal Reserve Bank of New York, issue Jul, pages 9-28.
  5. Lionel Halpern & Charles Wyplosz, 1996. "Equilibrium Exchange Rates in Transition Economies," IMF Working Papers 96/125, International Monetary Fund.
  6. Lawrence J. Christiano & Martin Eichenbaum & Charles L. Evans, 1998. "Monetary Policy Shocks: What Have We Learned and to What End?," NBER Working Papers 6400, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  7. Marek Jarocinski, 2010. "Responses to monetary policy shocks in the east and the west of Europe: a comparison," Journal of Applied Econometrics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 25(5), pages 833-868.
  8. FFF1Jitka NNN1Rychtarikova, 2004. "The case of the Czech Republic," Demographic Research Special Collections, Max Planck Institute for Demographic Research, Rostock, Germany, vol. 2(5), pages 105-138, April.
  9. Hanson, Michael S., 2004. "The "price puzzle" reconsidered," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 51(7), pages 1385-1413, October.
  10. Ekaterina VOSTROKNUTOVA, 2003. "Polish Stabilization: What Can We Learn From the I (2) Cointegration Analysis," Economics Working Papers ECO2003/06, European University Institute.
  11. Ivanna Vladkova Hollar & Giovanni Dell'Ariccia & Carlo Cottarelli, 2003. "Early Birds, Late Risers, and Sleeping Beauties," IMF Working Papers 03/213, International Monetary Fund.
  12. Alessio Anzuini & Aviram Levy, 2004. "Financial structure and the transmission of monetary shocks: preliminary evidence for the Czech Republic, Hungary and Poland," Temi di discussione (Economic working papers) 514, Bank of Italy, Economic Research and International Relations Area.
  13. Mojon, Benoît & Kashyap, Anil K. & Angeloni, Ignazio & Terlizzese, Daniele, 2002. "Monetary Transmission in the Euro Area : Where Do We Stand?," Working Paper Series 0114, European Central Bank.
  14. Georgy Ganev & Krisztina Molnar & Krzysztof Rybinski & Przemyslaw Wozniak, 2002. "Transmission Mechanism of Monetary Policy in Centraland Eastern Europe," CASE Network Reports 0052, CASE-Center for Social and Economic Research.
  15. Bonin, John & Wachtel, Paul, 2002. "Financial sector development in transition economies: Lessons from the first decade," BOFIT Discussion Papers 9/2002, Bank of Finland, Institute for Economies in Transition.
  16. Putkuri , Hanna, 2003. "Cross-country asymmetries in euro area monetary transmission: the role of national financial systems," Research Discussion Papers 15/2003, Bank of Finland.
  17. Sims, Christopher A., 1992. "Interpreting the macroeconomic time series facts : The effects of monetary policy," European Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 36(5), pages 975-1000, June.
  18. Louis Kuijs, 2002. "Monetary Policy Transmission Mechanisms and Inflation in Slovakia," IMF Working Papers 02/80, International Monetary Fund.
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Citations

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Cited by:
  1. Magdalena Morgese Borys & Roman Horvath, 2007. "The Effects of Monetary Policy in the Czech Republic: An Empirical Study," CERGE-EI Working Papers wp339, The Center for Economic Research and Graduate Education - Economic Institute, Prague.
  2. Coricelli, Fabrizio & Égert, Balázs & MacDonald, Ronald, 2006. "Monetary transmission mechanism in Central and Eastern Europe: Gliding on a wind of change," BOFIT Discussion Papers 8/2006, Bank of Finland, Institute for Economies in Transition.
  3. Jérôme Creel & Sandrine Levasseur, 2006. "Canaux de transmission de la politique monétaire dans l'ue. Le cas de trois nouveaux entrants," Revue économique, Presses de Sciences-Po, vol. 57(4), pages 881-898.
  4. Popescu, Iulia Vasile, 2012. "Effects of monetary policy in Romania. A VAR approach," MPRA Paper 41686, University Library of Munich, Germany.
  5. Balazs Egert & Ronald MacDonald, 2006. "Monetary Transmission Mechanism in Transition Economies: Surveying the Surveyable," CESifo Working Paper Series 1739, CESifo Group Munich.
  6. Jimborean, Ramona, 2009. "The role of banks in the monetary policy transmission in the new EU member states," Economic Systems, Elsevier, vol. 33(4), pages 360-375, December.
  7. repec:cmj:journl:y:2013:i:28:rosoiua,rosoiui is not listed on IDEAS
  8. Popescu Iulian Vasile, 2013. "The analysis of monetary policy effects with emphasis on monetary policy strategy types. A VAR approach," Romanian Economic Journal, Department of International Business and Economics from the Academy of Economic Studies Bucharest, vol. 16(47), pages 57-74, March.
  9. Marek Jarocinski, 2006. "Responses to Monetary Policy Shocks in the East and the West of Europe: A Comparison," Working Papers 124, Oesterreichische Nationalbank (Austrian Central Bank).
  10. Iulian Vasile POPESCU, 2014. "Global financial crisis-driven mutations affecting the transmission mechanism customized to monetary policy strategies. A VAR, SVAR and BVAR approach," Theoretical and Applied Economics, Asociatia Generala a Economistilor din Romania - AGER, vol. 0(2(591)), pages 35-66, February.
  11. Iulian Popescu, 2012. "Effects Of Monetary Policy In Romania - A Var Approach," CES Working Papers, Centre for European Studies, Alexandru Ioan Cuza University, vol. 4, pages 605-624, September.
  12. Fabrizio Coricelli & Balázs Égert & Ronald MacDonald, 2006. "Monetary Transmission in Central and Eastern Europe: Gliding on a Wind of Change," Focus on European Economic Integration, Oesterreichische Nationalbank (Austrian Central Bank), issue 1.
  13. Magdalena RADULESCU & Nicoleta DASCALU, 2009. "Monetary Transmission Channels in Romania – the Credit Channel," Annals - Economy Series, Constantin Brancusi University, Faculty of Economics, vol. 3, pages 77-88, December.
  14. Catherine Prettner & Klaus Prettner, 2012. " After Two Decades of Integration: How Interdependent are Eastern European Economies and the Euro Area?," Department of Economics Working Papers wuwp138, Vienna University of Economics, Department of Economics.
  15. Ziaei, Sayyed Mahdi, 2009. "Assess The Long Run Effects Of Monetary Policy On Bank lending,Foreign Asset and Liability In MENA Countries," MPRA Paper 14331, University Library of Munich, Germany.
  16. Fabrizio Coricelli & Balázs Égert & Ronald MacDonald, 2006. "Monetary Transmission Mechanism in Central & Eastern Europe: Gliding on a Wind of Change," William Davidson Institute Working Papers Series wp850, William Davidson Institute at the University of Michigan.
  17. repec:hal:journl:halshs-00193947 is not listed on IDEAS
  18. Jérôme Héricourt, 2005. "Monetary policy transmission in the CEECs : revisited results using alternative econometrics," Cahiers de la Maison des Sciences Economiques bla05020, Université Panthéon-Sorbonne (Paris 1).

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