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Monetary policy transmission mechanisms in the CEECs: How important are the differences with the euro area?

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We use a structural VAR model with short-term restrictions to investigate the relative importance of interest rate, exchange rate and credit channels in the monetary policy transmission (MPT) for the Czech Republic, Hungary and Poland over 1993:1-2004:3. Main results are as follows. First, in the three countries, following a positive shock on the interest rate, prices increase instead of decreasing, due to the immediate depreciation of the nominal exchange rate. The results thus exhibit an "exchange rate" puzzle conducing to the appearance of a "price-puzzle". Second, none channel is very powerful for the MPT in the three countries. Nevertheless, the exchange rate and the interest rate channels play a growing role over the recent period in Poland, compared with the same channels in the Czech Republic and Hungary. As nominal exchange rate fluctuations allow for greater real shocks dampening in Poland, the cost of entering EMU may be more costly for this country than for the Czech Republic or Hungary.

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Paper provided by Observatoire Francais des Conjonctures Economiques (OFCE) in its series Documents de Travail de l'OFCE with number 2005-02.

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Date of creation: 2005
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Handle: RePEc:fce:doctra:0502

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Keywords: monetary policy transmission; VAR models; exchange rate regimes;

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  1. Ekaterina VOSTROKNUTOVA, 2003. "Polish Stabilization: What Can We Learn From the I (2) Cointegration Analysis," Economics Working Papers ECO2003/06, European University Institute.
  2. Marek Jarocinski, 2010. "Responses to monetary policy shocks in the east and the west of Europe: a comparison," Journal of Applied Econometrics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 25(5), pages 833-868.
  3. Lawrence J. Christiano & Martin Eichenbaum & Charles L. Evans, 1998. "Monetary Policy Shocks: What Have We Learned and to What End?," NBER Working Papers 6400, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  4. Giordani, Paolo, 2004. "An alternative explanation of the price puzzle," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 51(6), pages 1271-1296, September.
  5. Jérôme Creel & Sandrine Levasseur, 2004. "How would a fixed-exchange-rate regime fit the transition economies?. The cases of the Czech Republic, Hungary and Poland," Revue de l'OFCE, Presses de Sciences-Po, vol. 91(5), pages 83-120.
  6. Lionel Halpern & Charles Wyplosz, 1996. "Equilibrium Exchange Rates in Transition Economies," IMF Working Papers 96/125, International Monetary Fund.
  7. Stephen G. Cecchetti, 1999. "Legal structure, financial structure, and the monetary policy transmission mechanism," Economic Policy Review, Federal Reserve Bank of New York, issue Jul, pages 9-28.
  8. Ben Bernanke, 1990. "The Federal Funds Rate and the Channels of Monetary Transnission," NBER Working Papers 3487, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  9. Louis Kuijs, 2002. "Monetary Policy Transmission Mechanisms and Inflation in Slovakia," IMF Working Papers 02/80, International Monetary Fund.
  10. Ivanna Vladkova Hollar & Giovanni Dell'Ariccia & Carlo Cottarelli, 2003. "Early Birds, Late Risers, and Sleeping Beauties," IMF Working Papers 03/213, International Monetary Fund.
  11. Alessio Anzuini & Aviram Levy, 2004. "Financial structure and the transmission of monetary shocks: preliminary evidence for the Czech Republic, Hungary and Poland," Temi di discussione (Economic working papers) 514, Bank of Italy, Economic Research and International Relations Area.
  12. Putkuri , Hanna, 2003. "Cross-country asymmetries in euro area monetary transmission: the role of national financial systems," Research Discussion Papers 15/2003, Bank of Finland.
  13. FFF1Jitka NNN1Rychtarikova, 2004. "The case of the Czech Republic," Demographic Research Special Collections, Max Planck Institute for Demographic Research, Rostock, Germany, vol. 2(5), pages 105-138, April.
  14. Mojon, Benoît & Kashyap, Anil K. & Angeloni, Ignazio & Terlizzese, Daniele, 2002. "Monetary Transmission in the Euro Area : Where Do We Stand?," Working Paper Series 0114, European Central Bank.
  15. Bonin, John & Wachtel, Paul, 2002. "Financial sector development in transition economies: Lessons from the first decade," BOFIT Discussion Papers 9/2002, Bank of Finland, Institute for Economies in Transition.
  16. Hanson, Michael S., 2004. "The "price puzzle" reconsidered," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 51(7), pages 1385-1413, October.
  17. Georgy Ganev & Krisztina Molnar & Krzysztof Rybinski & Przemyslaw Wozniak, 2002. "Transmission Mechanism of Monetary Policy in Centraland Eastern Europe," CASE Network Reports 0052, CASE-Center for Social and Economic Research.
  18. Sims, Christopher A., 1992. "Interpreting the macroeconomic time series facts : The effects of monetary policy," European Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 36(5), pages 975-1000, June.
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