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Polish Stabilization: What can we learn from the I(2) Cointegration Analysis?

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  • Ekaterina Vostroknutova

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Abstract

This paper investigates an array of nominal systems for the Polish economy, of domestic price level, import prices, exchange rates, money stock, nominal wages, and real output, and conducts I(1) and I(2) cointegration analyses. Post-stabilization monthly data are used, 1991:5-1999:12. A test for the presence of a price-wage spiral is performed, and the stabilization package is compared to its realization. The long-run homogeneity hypothesis, the impact of monetary and incomes policies, and of external sector variables on long and medium run price development are studied. It is found that in Poland, contrary to some earlier studies, the external sector is not important for the long run price development. On the contrary, very strong evidence is found of the cost-push inflation. Copyright Kluwer Academic Publishers 2003

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File URL: http://hdl.handle.net/10.1023/B:ECOP.0000012311.52328.9a
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Bibliographic Info

Article provided by Springer in its journal Economics of Planning.

Volume (Year): 36 (2003)
Issue (Month): 2 (June)
Pages: 177-198

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Handle: RePEc:kap:ecopln:v:36:y:2003:i:2:p:177-198

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Web page: http://www.springerlink.com/link.asp?id=113294

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Keywords: cointegration; I(2); incomes policy; monetary policy; Poland; stabilization;

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  1. Josef C. Brada & Ali M. Kutan, 1999. "The end of moderate inflation in three transition economies?," Working Papers 1999-003, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis.
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  12. Enev, Tihomir & Koford, Kenneth, 2000. " The Effect of Incomes Policies on Inflation in Bulgaria and Poland," Economic Change and Restructuring, Springer, vol. 33(3), pages 141-69.
  13. Paruolo, Paolo & Rahbek, Anders, 1999. "Weak exogeneity in I(2) VAR systems," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 93(2), pages 281-308, December.
  14. Nikolic, Milan, 2000. "Money Growth-Inflation Relationship in Postcommunist Russia," Journal of Comparative Economics, Elsevier, vol. 28(1), pages 108-133, March.
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Cited by:
  1. Jérôme Creel & Sandrine Levasseur, 2005. "Monetary policy transmission mechanisms in the CEECs: How important are the differences with the euro area?," Sciences Po publications 2005-02, Sciences Po.

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