IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/a/kap/ecopln/v36y2003i2p177-198.html
   My bibliography  Save this article

Polish Stabilization: What can we learn from the I(2) Cointegration Analysis?

Author

Listed:
  • Ekaterina Vostroknutova

Abstract

This paper investigates an array of nominal systems for the Polish economy, of domestic price level, import prices, exchange rates, money stock, nominal wages, and real output, and conducts I(1) and I(2) cointegration analyses. Post-stabilization monthly data are used, 1991:5-1999:12. A test for the presence of a price-wage spiral is performed, and the stabilization package is compared to its realization. The long-run homogeneity hypothesis, the impact of monetary and incomes policies, and of external sector variables on long and medium run price development are studied. It is found that in Poland, contrary to some earlier studies, the external sector is not important for the long run price development. On the contrary, very strong evidence is found of the cost-push inflation. Copyright Kluwer Academic Publishers 2003

Suggested Citation

  • Ekaterina Vostroknutova, 2003. "Polish Stabilization: What can we learn from the I(2) Cointegration Analysis?," Economic Change and Restructuring, Springer, vol. 36(2), pages 177-198, June.
    • Handle: RePEc:kap:ecopln:v:36:y:2003:i:2:p:177-198
    DOI: 10.1023/B:ECOP.0000012311.52328.9a
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: http://hdl.handle.net/10.1023/B:ECOP.0000012311.52328.9a
    Download Restriction: Access to full text is restricted to subscribers.
    File URL: https://libkey.io/10.1023/B:ECOP.0000012311.52328.9a?utm_source=ideas
    LibKey link: if access is restricted and if your library uses this service, LibKey will redirect you to where you can use your library subscription to access this item
    ---><---

    As the access to this document is restricted, you may want to look for a different version below or search for a different version of it.

    Other versions of this item:

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Peter Christoffersen & Torsten Sløk & Robert Wescott, 2001. "Is inflation targeting feasible in Poland?," The Economics of Transition, The European Bank for Reconstruction and Development, vol. 9(1), pages 153-174, March.
    2. Ms. Ratna Sahay & Mr. Jeromin Zettelmeyer & Mr. Eduardo Borensztein & Mr. Andrew Berg, 1999. "The Evolution of Output in Transition Economies: Explaining the Differences," IMF Working Papers 1999/073, International Monetary Fund.
    3. Frye, Timothy & Shleifer, Andrei, 1997. "The Invisible Hand and the Grabbing Hand," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 87(2), pages 354-358, May.
    4. Dibooglu, Selahattin & Kutan, Ali M., 2001. "Sources of Real Exchange Rate Fluctuations in Transition Economies: The Case of Poland and Hungary," Journal of Comparative Economics, Elsevier, vol. 29(2), pages 257-275, June.
    5. Desai, Padma, 1998. "Macroeconomic Fragility and Exchange Rate Vulnerability: A Cautionary Record of Transition Economies," Journal of Comparative Economics, Elsevier, vol. 26(4), pages 621-641, December.
    6. Rahbek, Anders & Christian Kongsted, Hans & Jorgensen, Clara, 1999. "Trend stationarity in the I(2) cointegration model," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 90(2), pages 265-289, June.
    7. Josef Brada & Ali Kutan, 1999. "The End of Moderate Inflation in Three Transition Economies?," William Davidson Institute Working Papers Series 230, William Davidson Institute at the University of Michigan.
    8. Peter Christoffersen & Peter Doyle, 2000. "From Inflation to Growth," The Economics of Transition, The European Bank for Reconstruction and Development, vol. 8(2), pages 421-451, July.
    9. Enev, Tihomir & Koford, Kenneth, 2000. "The Effect of Incomes Policies on Inflation in Bulgaria and Poland," Economic Change and Restructuring, Springer, vol. 33(3), pages 141-169.
    10. Mr. Dominique Desruelle & Mr. Alessandro Zanello, 1997. "A Primeron the IMF's Information Notice System," IMF Working Papers 1997/071, International Monetary Fund.
    11. Mr. Stanley Fischer & Ms. Ratna Sahay, 2000. "The Transition Economies After Ten Years," IMF Working Papers 2000/030, International Monetary Fund.
    12. Paruolo, Paolo & Rahbek, Anders, 1999. "Weak exogeneity in I(2) VAR systems," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 93(2), pages 281-308, December.
    13. repec:zbw:bofitp:2001_016 is not listed on IDEAS
    14. Nikolic, Milan, 2000. "Money Growth-Inflation Relationship in Postcommunist Russia," Journal of Comparative Economics, Elsevier, vol. 28(1), pages 108-133, March.
    15. Juselius, Katarina, 1992. "Domestic and foreign effects on prices in an open economy: The case of Denmark," Journal of Policy Modeling, Elsevier, vol. 14(4), pages 401-428, August.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Citations

    Citations are extracted by the CitEc Project, subscribe to its RSS feed for this item.
    as


    Cited by:

    1. Jérôme Creel* & Sandrine Levasseur, 2007. "Monetary Policy Transmission Mechanisms in the CEECs: How Important are the Differences with the Euro Area?," The IUP Journal of Monetary Economics, IUP Publications, vol. 0(1), pages 30-59, February.
    2. repec:hal:wpspec:info:hdl:2441/2976 is not listed on IDEAS
    3. repec:hal:spmain:info:hdl:2441/2976 is not listed on IDEAS
    4. repec:spo:wpecon:info:hdl:2441/2976 is not listed on IDEAS
    5. Lena Malesevic-Perovic, 2009. "Cointegration Approach to Analysing Inflation in Croatia," Financial Theory and Practice, Institute of Public Finance, vol. 33(2), pages 201-218.

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Dibooglu, Sel & Kutan, Ali M., 2005. "Sources of inflation and output movements in Poland and Hungary: Policy implications for accession to the economic and monetary union," Journal of Macroeconomics, Elsevier, vol. 27(1), pages 107-131, March.
    2. Neimke, Markus, 2003. "Financial development and economic growth in transition countries," IEE Working Papers 173, Ruhr University Bochum, Institute of Development Research and Development Policy (IEE).
    3. Dibooglu, Selahattin & Kutan, Ali M., 2001. "Sources of inflation and output fluctuations in Poland and Hungary: Implications for full membership in the European Union," ZEI Working Papers B 16-2001, University of Bonn, ZEI - Center for European Integration Studies.
    4. Falcetti, Elisabetta & Lysenko, Tatiana & Sanfey, Peter, 2006. "Reforms and growth in transition: Re-examining the evidence," Journal of Comparative Economics, Elsevier, vol. 34(3), pages 421-445, September.
    5. Golinelli, Roberto & Rovelli, Riccardo, 2005. "Monetary policy transmission, interest rate rules and inflation targeting in three transition countries," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 29(1), pages 183-201, January.
    6. Alex Segura-Ubiergo & Alejandro Simone & Sanjeev Gupta & Qiang Cui, 2010. "New Evidence on Fiscal Adjustment and Growth in Transition Economies," Comparative Economic Studies, Palgrave Macmillan;Association for Comparative Economic Studies, vol. 52(1), pages 18-37, March.
    7. DELL'ANNO, Roberto & VILLA, Stefania, 2012. "Growth in Transition Countries: Big Bang versus Gradualism," CELPE Discussion Papers 122, CELPE - CEnter for Labor and Political Economics, University of Salerno, Italy.
    8. Gilles Dufrénot & Adelya Ospanova & Alain Sand-Zantman, 2014. "A small macro econometric model for Kazakhstan: a retrospective of alternative economic policies undertaken during the transition process [Working papers]," Working Papers halshs-00926223, HAL.
    9. Катышев П.К. & Полтерович В.М., 2006. "Политика Реформ, Начальные Условия И Трансформационный Спад," Журнал Экономика и математические методы (ЭММ), Центральный Экономико-Математический Институт (ЦЭМИ), vol. 42(4), октябрь.
    10. Mr. Sanjeev Gupta & Mr. Alejandro Simone & Mr. Alex Segura-Ubiergo, 2006. "New Evidence on Fiscal Adjustment and Growth in Transition Economies," IMF Working Papers 2006/244, International Monetary Fund.
    11. Gilles Dufrenot & Alain Sand-Zantman, 2004. "Structural reforms, macroeconomic policies and the future of Kazakhstan economy," Documents de Travail de l'OFCE 2004-11, Observatoire Francais des Conjonctures Economiques (OFCE).
    12. Kemme, David M. & Roy, Saktinil, 2006. "Real exchange rate misalignment: Prelude to crisis?," Economic Systems, Elsevier, vol. 30(3), pages 207-230, October.
    13. Dibooglu, Selahattin & Kutan, Ali M., 2001. "Sources of Real Exchange Rate Fluctuations in Transition Economies: The Case of Poland and Hungary," Journal of Comparative Economics, Elsevier, vol. 29(2), pages 257-275, June.
    14. Hans Christian Kongsted & Heino Bohn Nielsen, 2004. "Analysing I(2) Systems by Transformed Vector Autoregressions," Oxford Bulletin of Economics and Statistics, Department of Economics, University of Oxford, vol. 66(3), pages 379-397, July.
    15. Fabrizio Coricelli & Boštjan Jazbec & Igor Masten, 2004. "L'influence du régime de change sur l'inflation dans les pays adhérents," Economie & Prévision, La Documentation Française, vol. 163(2), pages 51-61.
    16. Igor Pelipas & Alexander Chubrik, 2008. "Market Reforms and Growth in Post-socialist Economies: Evidence from Panel Cointegration and Equilibrium Correction Model," William Davidson Institute Working Papers Series wp936, William Davidson Institute at the University of Michigan.
    17. Fabrizio CORICELLI & Bostjan JAZBEC & Igor MASTEN, 2004. "Exchange Rate Pass-Through in Acceding Countries: The Role of Exchange Rate Regimes," Economics Working Papers ECO2004/16, European University Institute.
    18. Hans Christian Kongsted, 2002. "Testing the Nominal-to-Real Transformation," Discussion Papers 02-06, University of Copenhagen. Department of Economics.
    19. Iwasaki, Ichiro & Kumo, Kazuhiro, 2016. "Decline and Growth in Transition Economies: A Meta-Analysis," CEI Working Paper Series 2016-9, Center for Economic Institutions, Institute of Economic Research, Hitotsubashi University.
    20. Katarina Juselius, 2021. "Searching for a Theory That Fits the Data: A Personal Research Odyssey," Econometrics, MDPI, vol. 9(1), pages 1-27, February.

    More about this item

    Keywords

    cointegration; I(2); incomes policy; monetary policy; Poland; stabilization;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • C32 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Multiple or Simultaneous Equation Models; Multiple Variables - - - Time-Series Models; Dynamic Quantile Regressions; Dynamic Treatment Effect Models; Diffusion Processes; State Space Models
    • E63 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Macroeconomic Policy, Macroeconomic Aspects of Public Finance, and General Outlook - - - Comparative or Joint Analysis of Fiscal and Monetary Policy; Stabilization; Treasury Policy
    • E64 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Macroeconomic Policy, Macroeconomic Aspects of Public Finance, and General Outlook - - - Incomes Policy; Price Policy

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:kap:ecopln:v:36:y:2003:i:2:p:177-198. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Sonal Shukla or Springer Nature Abstracting and Indexing (email available below). General contact details of provider: http://www.springer.com .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.