IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/a/ipf/finteo/v33y2009i2p201-218.html
   My bibliography  Save this article

Cointegration Approach to Analysing Inflation in Croatia

Author

Listed:
  • Lena Malesevic-Perovic

    (Faculty of Economics, Split, Croatia)

Abstract

The aim of this paper is to analyse the determinants of inflation in Croatia in the period 1994:6-2006:6. We use a cointegration approach and find that increases in wages positively influence inflation in the long-run. Furthermore, in the period from June 1994 onward, the depreciation of the currency also contributed to inflation. Money does not explain Croatian inflation. This irrelevance of the money supply is consistent with its endogeneity to exchange rate targeting, whereby the money supply is determined by developments in the foreign exchange market. The value of inflation in the previous period is also found to be significant, thus indicating some inflation inertia.

Suggested Citation

  • Lena Malesevic-Perovic, 2009. "Cointegration Approach to Analysing Inflation in Croatia," Financial Theory and Practice, Institute of Public Finance, vol. 33(2), pages 201-218.
    • Handle: RePEc:ipf:finteo:v:33:y:2009:i:2:p:201-218
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: http://www.ijf.hr/eng/FTP/2009/2/malesevic.pdf
    Download Restriction: no
    ---><---

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Hakkio, Craig S. & Rush, Mark, 1991. "Cointegration: how short is the long run?," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 10(4), pages 571-581, December.
    2. Boriss Siliverstovs & Olena Bilan, 2006. "Modeling Inflation Dynamics in Transition Economies: The Case of Ukraine," Eastern European Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 43(6), pages 66-81, December.
    3. Brada, Josef C. & Kutan, Ali M., 1999. "The end of moderate inflation in three transition economies?," ZEI Working Papers B 21-1999, University of Bonn, ZEI - Center for European Integration Studies.
    4. Bruno, Michael, 1993. "Crisis, Stabilization, and Economic Reform: Therapy by Consensus," OUP Catalogue, Oxford University Press, number 9780198286639.
    5. Saikkonen, Pentti & Lütkepohl, Helmut & Trenkler, Carsten, 2006. "Break Date Estimation For Var Processes With Level Shift With An Application To Cointegration Testing," Econometric Theory, Cambridge University Press, vol. 22(1), pages 15-68, February.
    6. Ekaterina Vostroknutova, 2003. "Polish Stabilization: What can we learn from the I(2) Cointegration Analysis?," Economic Change and Restructuring, Springer, vol. 36(2), pages 177-198, June.
    7. Dibooglu, Sel & Kutan, Ali M., 2005. "Sources of inflation and output movements in Poland and Hungary: Policy implications for accession to the economic and monetary union," Journal of Macroeconomics, Elsevier, vol. 27(1), pages 107-131, March.
    8. Maruška Vizek & Tanja Broz, 2009. "Modeling Inflation in Croatia," Emerging Markets Finance and Trade, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 45(6), pages 87-98, November.
    9. Edgar L Feige, 2003. "Dynamics of Currency Substitution, Asset Substitution and De facto Dollarisation and Euroisation in Transition Countries," Comparative Economic Studies, Palgrave Macmillan;Association for Comparative Economic Studies, vol. 45(3), pages 358-383, September.
    10. Elliott, Graham & Rothenberg, Thomas J & Stock, James H, 1996. "Efficient Tests for an Autoregressive Unit Root," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 64(4), pages 813-836, July.
    11. Søren Johansen & Rocco Mosconi & Bent Nielsen, 2000. "Cointegration analysis in the presence of structural breaks in the deterministic trend," Econometrics Journal, Royal Economic Society, vol. 3(2), pages 216-249.
    12. Masso, Jaan & Staehr, Karsten, 2005. "Inflation dynamics and nominal adjustment in the Baltic States," Research in International Business and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 19(2), pages 281-303, June.
    13. M S Mohanty & Marc Klau, 2001. "What determines inflation in emerging market economies?," BIS Papers chapters, in: Bank for International Settlements (ed.), Modelling aspects of the inflation process and the monetary transmission mechanism in emerging market countries, volume 8, pages 1-38, Bank for International Settlements.
    14. Evan Kraft, 2003. "Monetary Policy under Dollarisation: The Case of Croatia," Comparative Economic Studies, Palgrave Macmillan;Association for Comparative Economic Studies, vol. 45(3), pages 256-277, September.
    15. Josip Funda & Gorana Lukiniæ & Igor Ljubaj, 2007. "Assessment of the Balassa-Samuelson Effect in Croatia," Financial Theory and Practice, Institute of Public Finance, vol. 31(4), pages 321-351.
    16. repec:zbw:bofitp:2001_016 is not listed on IDEAS
    17. Rodriguez-Palenzuela, Diego & Thimann, Christian & Backé, Peter, 2002. "Inflation dynamics and dual inflation in accession countries: a 'New Keynesian' perspective," Working Paper Series 132, European Central Bank.
    18. Carsten Trenkler*, 2005. "The Effects of Ignoring Level Shifts on Systems Cointegration Tests," AStA Advances in Statistical Analysis, Springer;German Statistical Society, vol. 89(3), pages 281-301, August.
    19. Mejra Festić, 2000. "Are Wages an Important Determinant of Inflation in Slovenia?," Eastern European Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 38(5), pages 36-59, October.
    20. R. Golinelli & R. Orsi, 2001. "Hungary and Poland," Working Papers 424, Dipartimento Scienze Economiche, Universita' di Bologna.
    21. Kevin Ross, 2000. "Post-stabilization inflation dynamics in Slovenia," Applied Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 32(2), pages 135-149.
    22. Hendry, David F., 1995. "Dynamic Econometrics," OUP Catalogue, Oxford University Press, number 9780198283164.
    23. Billmeier, Andreas & Bonato, Leo, 2004. "Exchange rate pass-through and monetary policy in Croatia," Journal of Comparative Economics, Elsevier, vol. 32(3), pages 426-444, September.
    24. Søren Johansen & Rocco Mosconi & Bent Nielsen, 2000. "Cointegration analysis in the presence of structural breaks in the deterministic trend," Econometrics Journal, Royal Economic Society, vol. 3(2), pages 216-249.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Citations

    Citations are extracted by the CitEc Project, subscribe to its RSS feed for this item.
    as


    Cited by:

    1. Djula Borozan, 2011. "Granger causality and innovation accounting analysis of the monetary transmission mechanism in Croatia," Post-Communist Economies, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 23(4), pages 517-537, May.

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Hannu KOSKINEN, 2010. "Modelling of Structural Changes in Demand for Money Cointegration Relations," EcoMod2004 330600082, EcoMod.
    2. Baek, Jungho & Cho, Yongsung & Koo, Won W., 2009. "The environmental consequences of globalization: A country-specific time-series analysis," Ecological Economics, Elsevier, vol. 68(8-9), pages 2255-2264, June.
    3. Skrobotov, Anton, 2021. "Structural breaks in cointegration models: Multivariate case," Applied Econometrics, Russian Presidential Academy of National Economy and Public Administration (RANEPA), vol. 64, pages 83-106.
    4. Tarlok Singh, 2017. "Are Current Account Deficits in the OECD Countries Sustainable? Robust Evidence from Time-Series Estimators," The International Trade Journal, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 31(1), pages 29-64, January.
    5. Tarlok Singh, 2023. "Do terms of trade affect economic growth? Robust evidence from India," Economics of Transition and Institutional Change, John Wiley & Sons, vol. 31(2), pages 491-521, April.
    6. Sergio Da Silva & Leandro Stocco & J. Anchieta Neves, 2008. "Is Mercosur an optimum currency area? An assessment using generalized purchasing power parity," Economics Bulletin, AccessEcon, vol. 6(29), pages 1-13.
    7. Lusine Lusinyan & John Thornton, 2011. "Unit roots, structural breaks and cointegration in the UK public finances, 1750-2004," Applied Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 43(20), pages 2583-2592.
    8. Djula Borozan, 2011. "Granger causality and innovation accounting analysis of the monetary transmission mechanism in Croatia," Post-Communist Economies, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 23(4), pages 517-537, May.
    9. Singh, Tarlok, 2023. "The sustainability of current account in the BRICS countries depends on economic policies’ support to structural adaptation," Journal of Policy Modeling, Elsevier, vol. 45(3), pages 570-591.
    10. Kosei Fukuda, 2011. "Cointegration rank switching model: an application to forecasting interest rates," Journal of Forecasting, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 30(5), pages 509-522, August.
    11. repec:ebl:ecbull:v:6:y:2008:i:29:p:1-13 is not listed on IDEAS
    12. Benjamin Leiva & Mar Rubio-Varas, 2020. "The Energy and Gross Domestic Product Causality Nexus in Latin America 1900-2010," International Journal of Energy Economics and Policy, Econjournals, vol. 10(1), pages 423-435.
    13. Ewing, Bradley T. & Payne, James E. & Caporin, Massimilano, 2022. "The Asymmetric Impact of Oil Prices and Production on Drilling Rig Trajectory: A correction," Resources Policy, Elsevier, vol. 79(C).
    14. Leiva, Benjamin & Liu, Zhongyuan, 2019. "Energy and economic growth in the USA two decades later: Replication and reanalysis," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 82(C), pages 89-99.
    15. Agnolucci, Paolo & De Lipsis, Vincenzo & Arvanitopoulos, Theodoros, 2017. "Modelling UK sub-sector industrial energy demand," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 67(C), pages 366-374.
    16. Garg, Bhavesh & Prabheesh, K.P., 2021. "Testing the intertemporal sustainability of current account in the presence of endogenous structural breaks: Evidence from the top deficit countries," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 97(C), pages 365-379.
    17. Bernstein, Ronald & Madlener, Reinhard, 2015. "Short- and long-run electricity demand elasticities at the subsectoral level: A cointegration analysis for German manufacturing industries," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 48(C), pages 178-187.
    18. Tarlok Singh, 2016. "On the sectoral linkages and pattern of economic growth in India," Journal of the Asia Pacific Economy, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 21(2), pages 257-275, April.
    19. Nemati, Mehdi, 2017. "Relationship among Energy, Bioenergy and Agricultural Commodity Prices: Re-Considering Structural Changes," International Journal of Food and Agricultural Economics (IJFAEC), Alanya Alaaddin Keykubat University, Department of Economics and Finance, vol. 5(3), July.
    20. Diamandis, Panayiotis F., 2009. "International stock market linkages: Evidence from Latin America," Global Finance Journal, Elsevier, vol. 20(1), pages 13-30.
    21. Łukasz Goczek & Dagmara Mycielska, . "Euro Dominance Hypothesis and Monetary Policy Independence - the Czech Perspective," Prague Economic Papers, University of Economics, Prague, vol. 0, pages 1-16.

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:ipf:finteo:v:33:y:2009:i:2:p:201-218. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Martina Fabris (email available below). General contact details of provider: https://edirc.repec.org/data/ijfffhr.html .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.