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Modelling Inflation Dynamics in Transition Economies: The Case of Ukraine

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Author Info
Boriss Siliverstovs
Olena Bilan

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Abstract

The paper explores dynamics of inflation in Ukraine in the period of relative macroeconomic stability. The analysis of interrelationship between inflation, money growth, wage growth, and a proxy for devaluation expectations is based on impulse responses and variance decomposition of a vector autoregression model. We find that changes in devaluation expectations appear to be the most important factor driving price development, while money supply growth has negligible impact on inflation. In addition, our results evidence of high degree of inflation inertia in the economy, which may reflect the specific institutional settings of Ukrainian economy.

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File URL: http://www.diw.de/documents/publikationen/73/diw_01.c.43070.de/dp476.pdf
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Publisher Info
Paper provided by DIW Berlin, German Institute for Economic Research in its series Discussion Papers of DIW Berlin with number 476.

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Length: 25 p.
Date of creation: 2005
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Publication status: Published in: Eastern European Economics 43 (2005), 6, 66-81
Handle: RePEc:diw:diwwpp:dp476

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Related research
Keywords: Transition economy; Inflation;

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Find related papers by JEL classification:
E31 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles - - - Price Level; Inflation; Deflation
C32 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Multiple or Simultaneous Equation Models; Multiple Variables - - - Time-Series Models; Dynamic Quantile Regressions
P24 - Economic Systems - - Socialist Systems and Transition Economies - - - National Income, Product, and Expenditure; Money; Inflation

References listed on IDEAS
Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.:

  1. Atish R. Ghosh, 1997. "Inflation in Transition Economies: How Much? and Why?," IMF Working Papers 97/80, International Monetary Fund.
  2. Ross, Kevin, 2000. "Post-stabilization Inflation Dynamics in Slovenia," Applied Economics, Taylor and Francis Journals, vol. 32(2), pages 135-49, February. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  3. Josef C. Brada & Ali M. Kutan, 1999. "The end of moderate inflation in three transition economies?," Working Papers 1999-003, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis. [Downloadable!]
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  4. Fischer, Stanley & Sahay, Ratna & Vegh, Carlos A, 1996. "Stabilization and Growth in Transition Economies: The Early Experience," Journal of Economic Perspectives, American Economic Association, vol. 10(2), pages 45-66, Spring. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
    Other versions:
  5. Bogdan Lissovolik, 2003. "Determinants of Inflation in a Transition Economy: the Case of Ukraine," IMF Working Papers 03/126, International Monetary Fund. [Downloadable!]
  6. Pozo, Susan & Wheeler, Mark, 1999. "Expectations and the Black Market Premium," Review of International Economics, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 7(2), pages 245-53, May.
  7. Himarios, Daniel, 1987. "Devaluation, Devaluation Expectations and Price Dynamics," Economica, London School of Economics and Political Science, vol. 54(215), pages 299-313, August. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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Cited by:
(explanations, Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.)

  1. Lena Malesevic-Perovic, 2009. "Cointegration Approach to Analysing Inflation in Croatia," Financial Theory and Practice, Institute of Public Finance, vol. 33(2), pages 201-218. [Downloadable!]
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