Lag Selection in Subset VAR Models with an Application to a U.S. Monetary System
AbstractIn this paper we consider alternative modeling strategies for specification of subset VAR models. We present four strategies and show that under certain conditions a testing procedure based on t-ratios is equivalent to eliminating sequentially lags that lead to the largest improvement in a prespecified model selection criterion. One finding from our Monte Carlo study is that differences between alternative strategies are small. Moreover, all strategies often fail to discover the true model. We argue that finding the correct model is not always the final modeling objective and find that using subset strategies results in models with improved forecast precision. To illustrate how these subset strategies can improve results from impulse response analysis, we use a VAR model of monetary policy shocks for the U.S. economy. While the response patterns from full and subset VARs are qualitatively identical, confidence bands from the unrestricted model are considerably wider. We conclude that subset strategies can be useful modeling tools when forecasting or impulse response analysis is the main objective.
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Bibliographic InfoPaper provided by Econometric Society in its series Econometric Society World Congress 2000 Contributed Papers with number 0821.
Date of creation: 01 Aug 2000
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Other versions of this item:
- Brüggemann, Ralf & Lütkepohl, Helmut, 2000. "Lag selection in subset VAR models with an application to a US monetary system," SFB 373 Discussion Papers 2000,37, Humboldt University of Berlin, Interdisciplinary Research Project 373: Quantification and Simulation of Economic Processes.
- C32 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Multiple or Simultaneous Equation Models; Multiple Variables - - - Time-Series Models; Dynamic Quantile Regressions; Dynamic Treatment Effect Models
- E52 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Monetary Policy, Central Banking, and the Supply of Money and Credit - - - Monetary Policy
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- Alexander Benkwitz & Michael Neumann & Helmut Lutekpohl, 2000. "Problems related to confidence intervals for impulse responses of autoregressive processes," Econometric Reviews, Taylor and Francis Journals, vol. 19(1), pages 69-103.
- Benkwitz, Alexander & Lütkepohl, Helmut & Wolters, Jürgen, 1999.
"Comparison of bootstrap confidence intervals for impulse responses of German monetary systems,"
SFB 373 Discussion Papers
1999,29, Humboldt University of Berlin, Interdisciplinary Research Project 373: Quantification and Simulation of Economic Processes.
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- Lawrence J. Christiano & Martin Eichenbaum & Charles Evans, 1994.
"The effects of monetary policy shocks: evidence from the flow of funds,"
Federal Reserve Bank of Dallas, issue Apr.
- Christiano, Lawrence J & Eichenbaum, Martin & Evans, Charles, 1996. "The Effects of Monetary Policy Shocks: Evidence from the Flow of Funds," The Review of Economics and Statistics, MIT Press, vol. 78(1), pages 16-34, February.
- Lawrence J. Christiano & Martin Eichenbaum & Charles Evans, 1994. "The effects of monetary policy shocks: evidence from the Flow of Funds," Working Paper Series, Macroeconomic Issues 94-2, Federal Reserve Bank of Chicago.
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