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Structural vector autoregressive models and monetary policy analysis

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  • Holtemöller, Oliver

Abstract

In this paper, the structural vector autoregressive (SVAR) model is used to analyze short-run and contemporaneous relationships between monetary aggregates and other macroeconomic variables. This requires imposing restrictions on the correlation structure of the VAR residuals. Different approaches can be followed to serve this task. One approach is to use the Cholesky decomposition together with the assumption of a recursive structure of the contemporaneous relationships between the variables. Another approach uses the information given by the history of the variables (generalized impulse response functions). A third possibility is to adopt restrictions from economic theory. The purpose of this paper is to investigate the implications of the latter technique in a simple monetary framework for both Germany and the Euro area. VAR/VECM residuals are interpreted as deviations of the variables from their conditional expected values, which are also analyzed in a broad set of theoretical monetary models. The model used here builds upon the framework proposed by McCallum (1989) with an extension in order to consider the role of private banks in the money supply process. The implications of this model for impulse response analysis are discussed, and impulse responses for different models are calculated and compared to each other. --

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Paper provided by Humboldt University of Berlin, Interdisciplinary Research Project 373: Quantification and Simulation of Economic Processes in its series SFB 373 Discussion Papers with number 2002,7.

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Date of creation: 2002
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Handle: RePEc:zbw:sfb373:20027

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Keywords: monetary policy; Impulse response analysis; IS-LM-AS model; structural vector autoregressive (SVAR) models;

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  1. VanHoose, David D, 1985. "Bank Market Structure and Monetary Control," Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, Blackwell Publishing, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 17(3), pages 298-311, August.
  2. Ben S. Bernanke & Ilian Mihov, 1995. "Measuring Monetary Policy," NBER Working Papers 5145, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  3. Issing, Otmar, 1997. "Monetary targeting in Germany: The stability of monetary policy and of the monetary system," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, Elsevier, vol. 39(1), pages 67-79, June.
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  5. Brüggemann, Ralf & Lütkepohl, Helmut, 2000. "Lag selection in subset VAR models with an application to a US monetary system," SFB 373 Discussion Papers 2000,37, Humboldt University of Berlin, Interdisciplinary Research Project 373: Quantification and Simulation of Economic Processes.
  6. Olivier Jean Blanchard & Stanley Fischer, 1989. "Lectures on Macroeconomics," MIT Press Books, The MIT Press, The MIT Press, edition 1, volume 1, number 0262022834, December.
  7. Frederic S. Mishkin, 1999. "International Experiences with Different Monetary Policy Regimes," NBER Working Papers 6965, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  8. Eric M. Leeper & Christopher A. Sims & Tao Zha, 1996. "What Does Monetary Policy Do?," Brookings Papers on Economic Activity, Economic Studies Program, The Brookings Institution, vol. 27(2), pages 1-78.
  9. Papademos, Lucas & Modigliani, Franco, 1990. "The supply of money and the control of nominal income," Handbook of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, in: B. M. Friedman & F. H. Hahn (ed.), Handbook of Monetary Economics, edition 1, volume 1, chapter 10, pages 399-399 Elsevier.
  10. Xavier Freixas & Jean-Charles Rochet, 1997. "Microeconomics of Banking," MIT Press Books, The MIT Press, The MIT Press, edition 1, volume 1, number 0262061937, December.
  11. Lawrence J. Christiano & Martin Eichenbaum & Charles L. Evans, 1997. "Monetary policy shocks: what have we learned and to what end?," Working Paper Series, Macroeconomic Issues, Federal Reserve Bank of Chicago WP-97-18, Federal Reserve Bank of Chicago.
  12. Pesaran, M. H. & Shin, Y., 1997. "Generalised Impulse Response Analysis in Linear Multivariate Models," Cambridge Working Papers in Economics, Faculty of Economics, University of Cambridge 9710, Faculty of Economics, University of Cambridge.
  13. McCallum, Bennett T., 1981. "Price level determinacy with an interest rate policy rule and rational expectations," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, Elsevier, vol. 8(3), pages 319-329.
  14. Kim, Soyoung, 1999. "Do monetary policy shocks matter in the G-7 countries? Using common identifying assumptions about monetary policy across countries," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, Elsevier, vol. 48(2), pages 387-412, August.
  15. Juselius, Katarina, 1998. "A Structured VAR for Denmark under Changing Monetary Regimes," Journal of Business & Economic Statistics, American Statistical Association, American Statistical Association, vol. 16(4), pages 400-411, October.
  16. Kim, Soyoung & Roubini, Nouriel, 2000. "Exchange rate anomalies in the industrial countries: A solution with a structural VAR approach," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, Elsevier, vol. 45(3), pages 561-586, June.
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Cited by:
  1. Holtemöller, Oliver, 2002. "Money and prices: An I(2) analysis for the euro area," SFB 373 Discussion Papers 2002,12, Humboldt University of Berlin, Interdisciplinary Research Project 373: Quantification and Simulation of Economic Processes.

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