Comparison of Model Reduction Methods for VAR Processes
Abstract
The objective of this study is to compare alternative computerized model-selection strategies in the context of the vector autoregressive (VAR) modeling framework. The focus is on a comparison of subset modeling strategies with the general-to-specific reduction approach automated by PcGets. Different measures of the possible gains of model selection are considered: (i) the chances of finding the `correct' model, that is, a model which contains all necessary right-hand side variables and is as parsimonious as possible, (ii) the accuracy of the implied impulse-responses and (iii) the forecast performance of the models obtained with different specification algorithms. In the Monte Carlo experiments, the procedures recover the DGP specification from a large VAR with anticipated size and power close to commencing from the DGP itself when evaluated at the empirical size. We find that subset strategies and PcGets are close competitors in many respects, with the forecast comparison indicating a clear advantage of the PcGets algorithm.Download Info
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Paper provided by Economics Group, Nuffield College, University of Oxford in its series Economics Papers with number 2003-W13.Length: 20 pages
Date of creation: 02 Apr 2003
Date of revision:
Handle: RePEc:nuf:econwp:0313
Contact details of provider:
Web page: http://www.nuff.ox.ac.uk/economics/
Related research
Keywords: Model selection; Vector autoregression; Subset model; Lag order determination; Data mining;Other versions of this item:
- Brüggemann, Ralf & Krolzig, Hans-Martin & Lütkepohl, Helmut, 2002. "Comparison of model reduction methods for VAR processes," SFB 373 Discussion Papers 2002,80, Humboldt University of Berlin, Interdisciplinary Research Project 373: Quantification and Simulation of Economic Processes.
- Ralf BRUEGGEMANN & Hans-Martin KROLZIG & Helmut LUETKEPOHL, 2002. "Comparison of Model Reduction Methods for VAR Processes," Economics Working Papers ECO2002/19, European University Institute.
- C32 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Multiple or Simultaneous Equation Models; Multiple Variables - - - Time-Series Models; Dynamic Quantile Regressions; Dynamic Treatment Effect Models
- C51 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Econometric Modeling - - - Model Construction and Estimation
This paper has been announced in the following NEP Reports:
- NEP-ALL-2003-04-27 (All new papers)
- NEP-ECM-2003-05-15 (Econometrics)
- NEP-ETS-2003-04-27 (Econometric Time Series)
References
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- David Hendry & Hans-Martin Krolzig, 2000.
"Computer Automation of General-to-Specific Model Selection Procedures,"
Economics Series Working Papers
3, University of Oxford, Department of Economics.
- Krolzig, Hans-Martin & Hendry, David F., 2001. "Computer automation of general-to-specific model selection procedures," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 25(6-7), pages 831-866, June.
- Hans-Martin Krolzig & David Hendry, 1999. "Computer Automation of General-to-Specific Model Selection Procedures," Computing in Economics and Finance 1999 314, Society for Computational Economics.
- Hans-Martin Krolzig, 2001. "General--to--Specific Reductions of Vector Autoregressive Processes," Computing in Economics and Finance 2001 164, Society for Computational Economics.
- repec:oxf:wpaper:003 is not listed on IDEAS
- Hans-Martin Krolzig, 2000.
"Computer Automation of General-to-Specific Model Selection Procedures,"
Econometric Society World Congress 2000 Contributed Papers
0411, Econometric Society.
- Krolzig, Hans-Martin & Hendry, David F., 2001. "Computer automation of general-to-specific model selection procedures," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 25(6-7), pages 831-866, June.
- Hans-Martin Krolzig & David Hendry, 1999. "Computer Automation of General-to-Specific Model Selection Procedures," Computing in Economics and Finance 1999 314, Society for Computational Economics.
Citations
Citations are extracted by the CitEc Project, subscribe to its RSS feed for this item.Cited by:
- Cubadda, Gianluca & Hecq, Alain & Palm, Franz C., 2009.
"Studying co-movements in large multivariate data prior to multivariate modelling,"
Open Access publications from Maastricht University
urn:nbn:nl:ui:27-22876, Maastricht University.
- Cubadda, Gianluca & Hecq, Alain & Palm, Franz C., 2009. "Studying co-movements in large multivariate data prior to multivariate modelling," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 148(1), pages 25-35, January.
- Gianluca Cubadda & Alain Hecq & Franz C. Palm, 2008. "Studying Co-Movements in Large Multivariate Data Prior to Multivariate Modelling," CEIS Research Paper 125, Tor Vergata University, CEIS, revised 14 Jul 2008.
- David F. Hendry & Hans-Martin Krolzig, 2003.
"Sub-sample Model Selection Procedures in Gets Modelling,"
Economics Papers
2003-W17, Economics Group, Nuffield College, University of Oxford.
- David Hendry & Hans-Martin Krolzig, 2003. "Sub-Sample Model Selection Procedures in Gets Modelling," Economics Series Working Papers 2003-W17, University of Oxford, Department of Economics.
- Hans-Martin Krolzig, 2003.
"General-to-Specific Model Selection Procedures for Structural Vector Autoregressions,"
Oxford Bulletin of Economics and Statistics,
Department of Economics, University of Oxford, vol. 65(s1), pages 769-801, December.
- Hans-Martin Krolzig, 2003. "General-to-Specific Model Selection Procedures for Structural Vector Autoregressions," Economics Papers 2003-W15, Economics Group, Nuffield College, University of Oxford.
- Jana Eklund & George Kapetanios, 2008. "A Review of Forecasting Techniques for Large Data Sets," Working Papers 625, Queen Mary, University of London, School of Economics and Finance.
- Alejandro Gaytán González & Jesús R. González García, 2006. "Structural Changes in the Transmission Mechanism of Monetary Policy in Mexico: A Non-linear VAR Approach," Working Papers 2006-06, Banco de México.
- Kapetanios, George, 2007. "Variable selection in regression models using nonstandard optimisation of information criteria," Computational Statistics & Data Analysis, Elsevier, vol. 52(1), pages 4-15, September.
- Dietmar Maringer & Peter Winker, 2004. "Optimal Lag Structure Selection in VEC-Models," Computing in Economics and Finance 2004 155, Society for Computational Economics.
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