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Optimal Lag Structure Selection in VEC-Models Author info | Abstract | Publisher info | Download info | Related research | Statistics Dietmar Maringer
Peter Winker
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For modelling economic and financial time series, multivariate linear and nonlinear systems of equations have become a standard tool. These models can also be applied to non-stationary processes. However, the resulting finite-sample estimates may depend strongly on the specification of the model dynamics. We propose a method for automatic identification of the dynamic part of VEC-models. Model selection is based on a modified information criterion. The lag structure of the model is selected according to this objective function allowing for "holes". The resulting complex discrete optimization problem is tackled using a hybrid heuristic combining ideas from threshold accepting and memetic algorithms. We present the algorithm and the results of a simulation study showing the method's performance both with regard to the dynamic structure and the rank selection in the VEC-model. The results indicate that the selection of the cointregation rank might depend strongly on the specification of the dynamic part of the VEC-model
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Paper provided by Society for Computational Economics in its series Computing in Economics and Finance 2004 with number
155.
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Date of creation: 11 Aug 2004Date of revision:
Handle: RePEc:sce:scecf4:155Contact details of provider: Email: Web page: http://comp-econ.org/ More information through EDIRC
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Keywords: Model selection ; cointegration rank ; reduced rank regression ; Other versions of this item:
Find related papers by JEL classification: C32 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Multiple or Simultaneous Equation Models; Multiple Variables - - - Time-Series Models; Dynamic Quantile Regressions C61 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Mathematical Methods and Programming - - - Optimization Techniques; Programming Models; Dynamic Analysis
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references Cited by : (explanations , Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile , click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.)
Marianna Lyra & Johannes Paha & Sandra Paterlini & Peter Winker, 2008.
"Optimization Heuristics for Determining Internal Rating Grading Scales ,"
Center for Economic Research (RECent)
023, University of Modena and Reggio E., Dept. of Economics.
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"Testing for Cointegrating Rank via Model Selection: Evidence from 165 Data Sets ,"
Center for Policy Research Working Papers
83, Center for Policy Research, Maxwell School, Syracuse University.
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