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Optimal Lag Structure Selection in VEC-Models

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Author Info
Dietmar Maringer
Peter Winker

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Abstract

For modelling economic and financial time series, multivariate linear and nonlinear systems of equations have become a standard tool. These models can also be applied to non-stationary processes. However, the resulting finite-sample estimates may depend strongly on the specification of the model dynamics. We propose a method for automatic identification of the dynamic part of VEC-models. Model selection is based on a modified information criterion. The lag structure of the model is selected according to this objective function allowing for "holes". The resulting complex discrete optimization problem is tackled using a hybrid heuristic combining ideas from threshold accepting and memetic algorithms. We present the algorithm and the results of a simulation study showing the method's performance both with regard to the dynamic structure and the rank selection in the VEC-model. The results indicate that the selection of the cointregation rank might depend strongly on the specification of the dynamic part of the VEC-model

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Paper provided by Society for Computational Economics in its series Computing in Economics and Finance 2004 with number 155.

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Date of creation: 11 Aug 2004
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Handle: RePEc:sce:scecf4:155

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Related research
Keywords: Model selection; cointegration rank; reduced rank regression;

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Find related papers by JEL classification:
C32 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Multiple or Simultaneous Equation Models; Multiple Variables - - - Time-Series Models; Dynamic Quantile Regressions
C61 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Mathematical Methods and Programming - - - Optimization Techniques; Programming Models; Dynamic Analysis

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  1. Krolzig, Hans-Martin & Hendry, David F., 2001. "Computer automation of general-to-specific model selection procedures," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 25(6-7), pages 831-866, June. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
    Other versions:
  2. Peter Winker, 2000. "Optimized Multivariate Lag Structure Selection," Computational Economics, Springer, vol. 16(1/2), pages 87-103, October. [Downloadable!]
  3. Ralf Brüggemann & Hans-Martin Krolzig & Helmut Lütkepohl, 2003. "Comparison of Model Reduction Methods for VAR Processes," Economics Papers 2003-W13, Economics Group, Nuffield College, University of Oxford. [Downloadable!]
    Other versions:
  4. repec:cup:etheor:v:7:y:1991:i:2:p:163-85 is not listed on IDEAS
  5. P?tscher, B.M., 1991. "Effects of Model Selection on Inference," Econometric Theory, Cambridge University Press, vol. 7(02), pages 163-185, June. [Downloadable!]
  6. Omtzigt Pieter, 2002. "Automatic identification and restriction of the cointegration space," Economics and Quantitative Methods qf0213, Department of Economics, University of Insubria. [Downloadable!]
  7. Cheung, Yin-Wong & Lai, Kon S, 1993. "Finite-Sample Sizes of Johansen's Likelihood Ration Tests for Conintegration," Oxford Bulletin of Economics and Statistics, Department of Economics, University of Oxford, vol. 55(3), pages 313-28, August.
  8. Mohsen Bahmani-Oskooee & Taggert J. Brooks, 2003. "A new criteria for selecting the optimum lags in Johansen's cointegration technique," Applied Economics, Taylor and Francis Journals, vol. 35(8), pages 875-880, January. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  9. Ahking, Francis W., 2002. "Model mis-specification and Johansen's co-integration analysis: an application to the US money demand," Journal of Macroeconomics, Elsevier, vol. 24(1), pages 51-66, March. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  10. Jesus Gonzalo & Jean-Yves Pitarakis, 2001. "Lag Length Estimation in Large Dimensional Systems," Econometrics 0108003, EconWPA. [Downloadable!]
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  11. Winker, Peter, 1995. "Identification of multivariate AR-models by threshold accepting," Computational Statistics & Data Analysis, Elsevier, vol. 20(3), pages 295-307, September. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  12. Gredenhoff, Mikael & Karlsson, Sune, 1997. "Lag-length Selection in VAR-models Using Equal and Unequal Lag-Length Procedures," Working Paper Series in Economics and Finance 177, Stockholm School of Economics.
  13. Chao, John C. & Phillips, Peter C. B., 1999. "Model selection in partially nonstationary vector autoregressive processes with reduced rank structure," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 91(2), pages 227-271, August. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  14. Johansen, Soren, 1991. "Estimation and Hypothesis Testing of Cointegration Vectors in Gaussian Vector Autoregressive Models," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 59(6), pages 1551-80, November. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  15. Julia Campos & David F. Hendry & Hans-Martin Krolzig, 2003. "Consistent Model Selection by an Automatic "Gets" Approach," Oxford Bulletin of Economics and Statistics, Department of Economics, University of Oxford, vol. 65(s1), pages 803-819, December. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  16. Ronald Bewley & Minxian Yang, 1998. "On The Size And Power Of System Tests For Cointegration," The Review of Economics and Statistics, MIT Press, vol. 80(4), pages 675-679, November. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  17. Johansen, Soren, 1992. "Determination of Cointegration Rank in the Presence of a Linear Trend," Oxford Bulletin of Economics and Statistics, Department of Economics, University of Oxford, vol. 54(3), pages 383-97, August.
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  18. Johansen, Soren, 1988. "Statistical analysis of cointegration vectors," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 12(2-3), pages 231-254. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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Cited by:
(explanations, Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.)

  1. Marianna Lyra & Johannes Paha & Sandra Paterlini & Peter Winker, 2008. "Optimization Heuristics for Determining Internal Rating Grading Scales," Center for Economic Research (RECent) 023, University of Modena and Reggio E., Dept. of Economics. [Downloadable!]
    Other versions:
  2. Badi H. Baltagi & Zijun Wang, 2006. "Testing for Cointegrating Rank via Model Selection: Evidence from 165 Data Sets," Center for Policy Research Working Papers 83, Center for Policy Research, Maxwell School, Syracuse University. [Downloadable!]
    Other versions:
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