Bootstrapping the likelihood ratio cointegration test in error correction models with unknown lag order

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Bootstrapping the likelihood ratio cointegration test in error correction models with unknown lag order

Author Info

Christian Kascha (Norges Bank (Central Bank of Norway))
Carsten Trenkler () (University of Mannheim)

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Abstract

We investigate the small-sample size and power properties of bootstrapped likelihood ratio systems cointegration tests via Monte Carlo simulations when the true lag order of the data generating process is unknown. A recursive bootstrap scheme is employed. We estimate the order by minimizing different information criteria. In comparison to the standard asymptotic likelihood ratio test based on an estimated lag order we found that the recursive bootstrap procedure can lead to improvements in small samples even when the true lag order is unknown while the power loss is moderate.

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Publisher Info
Paper provided by Norges Bank in its series Working Paper with number 2009/12.

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Length: 22 pages
Date of creation: 04 Aug 2009
Date of revision:
Handle: RePEc:bno:worpap:2009_12

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Find related papers by JEL classification:
C15 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Econometric and Statistical Methods: General - - - Statistical Simulation Methods
C32 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Multiple or Simultaneous Equation Models; Multiple Variables - - - Time-Series Models; Dynamic Quantile Regressions

This paper has been announced in the following NEP Reports:

NEP-ALL-2009-08-16 (All new papers)
NEP-ECM-2009-08-16 (Econometrics)
NEP-ETS-2009-08-16 (Econometric Time Series)
NEP-MST-2009-08-16 (Market Microstructure)

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