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Bootstrap and fast double bootstrap tests of cointegration rank with financial time series

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  • Ahlgren, N.
  • Antell, J.

Abstract

The likelihood ratio test of cointegration rank is the most widely used test for cointegration. Many studies have shown that its finite sample distribution is not well approximated by the limiting distribution. Bootstrap and fast double bootstrap (FDB) algorithms for the likelihood ratio test are introduced and evaluated by Monte Carlo simulation experiments. It is found that the performance of the ordinary (single) bootstrap test is in most cases good in terms of the size of the test. The FDB produces a further improvement in cases where the performance of the asymptotic test is unsatisfactory and the single bootstrap test overrejects noticeably. The FDBÂ is shown to be a useful supplement to the single bootstrap as a tool for determining the cointegration rank. The tests are applied to US interest rates and international stock prices series. By simulating the data assuming that the cointegration rank is known, it is found that the asymptotic test tends to overestimate the cointegration rank, while the bootstrap and FDB tests choose the correct cointegration rank.

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Bibliographic Info

Article provided by Elsevier in its journal Computational Statistics & Data Analysis.

Volume (Year): 52 (2008)
Issue (Month): 10 (June)
Pages: 4754-4767

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Handle: RePEc:eee:csdana:v:52:y:2008:i:10:p:4754-4767

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Web page: http://www.elsevier.com/locate/csda

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Cited by:
  1. Christian Kascha & Carsten Trenkler, 2009. "Bootstrapping the likelihood ratio cointegration test in error correction models with unknown lag order," Working Paper 2009/12, Norges Bank.
  2. Wägar, Karolina & Björk, Peter & Ravald, Annika & West, Björn, 2007. "Exploring Marketing in Micro Firms," Working Papers 531, Hanken School of Economics.
  3. Niklas Ahlgren & Mikael Juselius, 2012. "Tests for cointegration rank and the initial condition," Empirical Economics, Springer, vol. 42(3), pages 667-691, June.
  4. Kulp-Tåg, Sofie, 2007. "An Empirical Comparison of Linear and Nonlinear Volatility Models for Nordic Stock Returns," Working Papers 525, Hanken School of Economics.
  5. Ahlgren, Niklas & Antell, Jan, 2010. "Stock market linkages and financial contagion: A cobreaking analysis," The Quarterly Review of Economics and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 50(2), pages 157-166, May.
  6. Ekholm, Bo-Göran & Wallin, Jan, 2006. "Flexible Budgeting under Uncertainty: A Real Options Perspective," Working Papers 520, Hanken School of Economics.
  7. Segercrantz, Beata, 2007. "Constructing Stability in Software Product Development during Organizational Restructurings," Working Papers 527, Hanken School of Economics.
  8. Strandvik, Tore & Holmlund, Maria & Edvardsson, Bo, 2008. "Customer Needing - Conceptualising Industrial Service from a Customer Perspective," Working Papers 536, Hanken School of Economics.
  9. Ahlgren, Niklas & Antell, Jan, 2009. "The Power of Bootstrap Tests of Cointegration Rank with Financial Time Series," Working Papers 541, Hanken School of Economics.
  10. Niklas Ahlgren & Jan Antell, 2013. "The power of bootstrap tests of cointegration rank," Computational Statistics, Springer, vol. 28(6), pages 2719-2748, December.

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